References
- Aguiló, E., Rosselló, J., & Vila, M. (2017). Length of stay and daily tourist expenditure: A joint analysis. Tourism Management Perspectives, 21, 10–17. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2016.10.008
- Assaf, A., Li, G., Song, H., & Tsionas, M. (2019). Modeling and Forecasting regional tourism demand using the Bayesian global vector Autoregressive (BGVAR) model. Journal of Travel Research, 58(3), 383–397. https://academic.microsoft.com/paper/2789902053 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287518759226
- Asteriou, D., & Hall, S. (2007). Applied Econometrics, a modern approach. Palgrave MacMillan.
- Athanasopoulos, G., Song, H., & Sun, J. (2018). Bagging in tourism demand modeling and forecasting. Journal of Travel Research, 57(1), 52–68. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287516682871
- Bails, D., & Peppers, L. (1993). Business fluctuations: Forecasting techniques and applications. Prentice-Hall, Inc.
- Christelis, D., Georgarakos, D., & Jappelli, T. (2015). Wealth shocks, unemployment shocks and consumption in the wake of the Great recession. Journal of Monetary Economics, 72, 21–41. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.01.003
- Cook, R. A., Hsu, C., & Taylor, L. (2018). Tourism: The business of Hospitality and travel. Pearson.
- Cooper, C., Fletcher, J., Gilbert, D., & Wanhill, S. (1993). Tourism: Principles and practice. Pitman.
- Croes, R. (2010). Anatomy of demand in International tourism: The case of Aruba. Lambert Academic Publishing.
- Croes, R., Ridderstaat, J., & Rivera, M. (2018). Asymmetric business cycle effects and tourism demand cycles. Journal of Travel Research, 57(4), 419–436. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287517704086
- Croes, R., & Ridderstaat, R. (2017). The effects of business cycles on tourism demand flows in small island destinations. Tourism Economics, 23(7), 1451–1475. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816617697837
- Croes, R., & Semrad, K. (2012). Does Discounting work in the lodging industry. Journal of Travel Research, 51(5), 617–631. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287511434114
- Crouch, G., Oppewal, H., Huybers, T., Dolnicar, S., Louviere, J., & Devinney, T. (2007). Discretionary expenditure and tourism consumption: Insights from a choice experiment. Journal of Travel Research, 45(3), 247–258. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287506295912
- Curtin, R. (2019). Consumer Expectations: Micro Foundations and Macro Impact.
- Cynamon, B., & Fazzari, S. (2013). Inequality and household finance during the consumer age. Levy Economic Institute working paper 752.
- Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for Autoregressive time series With a Unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
- Dogru, T., Sirakaya-Turk, E., & Crouch, G. (2017). Remodeling international tourism demand: Old theory and new evidence. Tourism Management, 60, 47–55. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2016.11.010
- European Travel Commission. (2009). European tourism 2009-trends & prospects. Market intelligence group of the European Travel commission.
- Eurostat. (2018). Households - statistics on disposable income, saving and investment. Retrieved April 11, 2019, from Eurostat Statistics Explained: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Households_-_statistics_on_disposable_income,_saving_and_investment
- Fereidouni, H., Al-Mulali, U., & Mohammed, M. (2017). Wealth effect from real estate and outbound travel demand: the Malaysian case. Current issues in tourism, 20(1), 68–79. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2014.882886
- Fagereng, A., & Halvorsen, E. (2016). Debt and household consumption responses. Social Science Research Network.
- Frechling, D. (2001). Forecasting tourism demand: Methods and strategies. Butterworth-Heinemann. http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2506549
- Fulop, G., & Gyomai, G. (2012). Transition of the OECD CLI system to a GDP-based business cycle target. OECD Composite Leading Indicators Background note.
- Goh, C. (2012). Exploring impact of climate on tourism demand. Annals of Tourism Research, 39(4), 1859–1883. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2012.05.027
- Gujarati, D. (2015). Econometrics by example. Palgrave Macmillan.
- Gujarati, D., & Porter, D. (2009). Basic econometrics. McGraw-Hill.
- Hall, C. (2010). Crisis events in tourism: Subjects of crisis in tourism. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(5), 401–417. https://academic.microsoft.com/paper/2118224344 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2010.491900
- Hall, C. (2011). Equal access for all? Regulative mechanisms, Inequality and tourism mobility. In S. Cole, & N. Morgan (Eds.), Tourism and Inequality: Problems and prospects (pp. 34–48). CABI.
- Hansen, L., & Singleton, K. (1983). Stochastic consumption, risk aversion, and the temporal behavior of asset returns. Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 249–265. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1086/261141
- Harvey, A., & Shephard, N. (1993). 10 structural time series models. Handbook of Statistics, 11, 261–302. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-7161(05)80045-8
- Hayashi, F. (2000). Econometrics. Princeton Press.
- Headey, B. (2008). Poverty is low consumption and low wealth, not just low income. Social Indicators Research, 1(1), 23–39. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-007-9231-2
- Hill, W. (2016). Understanding the typical vacations of U. S. Southern Travelers. Journal of Applied Business Research, 32(4), 1169–1178. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v32i4.9729
- IHS Global Inc. (2015). Eviews 9 user's guide II. IHS Global Inc.
- International Monetary Fund. (2020). World Economic outlook update: A crisis like no other, and uncertain recovery. Retrieved July 14, 2020, from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020
- Jafari, Y., Othman, J., & Nor, A. (2012). Energy consumption, Economic growth and environmental pollutants in Indonesia. Journal of Policy Modeling, 34(6), 879–889. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.05.020
- Katona, G. (1964). The mass consumption society. McGraw-Hill, Inc.
- Katona, G. (1977). Psychological economics. Elsevier.
- Keating, B., & Wilson, J. (2019). Forecasting and predictive analytics. McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
- Kim, H., Park, J., Lee, S., & Jang, S. (2012). Do expectations of future wealth increase outbound tourism? Evidence from Korea. Tourism Management, 33(5), 1141–1147. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2011.11.017
- Knoop, T. (2015). Business cycle economics, understanding recessions and depressions from boom to bust. ABC-CLIO, LLC.
- Kukk, M. (2014). Distinguishing the components of household financial wealth: The impact of liabilities on assets in Euro area countries. Working Paper Series Eesti Pank (Central Bank of Estonia) 2/2014.
- Kulendran, N., & Witt, S. (2003). Forecasting the demand for international business tourism. Journal of Travel Research, 41(3), 265–271. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287502239034
- Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity Against the alternative of a Unit root. Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159–178. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
- Lind, J., & Mehlum, H. (2010). With or without U? The appropriate test for a U shaped relationship. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 72(1), 109–118. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2009.00569.x
- Long, W., Liu, C., & Song, H. (2019). Pooling in tourism demand forecasting. Journal of Travel Research, 58(7), 1161–1174. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287518800390
- Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S., & Hyndman, R. (1998). Forecasting Methods and applications. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
- Martins, L., Gan, Y., & Ferreira-Lopes, A. (2017). An empirical analysis of the influence of macroeconomic determinants on World tourism demand. Tourism Management, 61, 248–260. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.01.008
- Martus, B. (2016). Jobless growth: The impact of structural changes. Public Finance Quarterly, 61(2), 244–264.
- Mathieson, A., & Wall, G. (1982). Tourism: Economic, physical and social impacts. Longman.
- Moss, D. (2014). A concise guide to macroeconomics: What managers, executives, and students should know. Harvard Business Review Press.
- Murray, M. (2006). Avoiding invalid instruments and coping with weak instruments. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(4), 111–132. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.20.4.111
- Nardi, M., French, E., & Benson, D. (2011). Consumption and the Great recession. Economic Perspectives, 36(1), 1–16.
- OECD. (2015). Households’ economic well-being: the OECD dashboard methodological note. Paris. Retrieved May 2, 2019, from https://www1.oecd.org/sdd/na/OECD-Household-dashboard-methodological-note.pdf
- Papatheodorou, A., Rossello, J., & Xiao, H. (2010). Global Economic crisis and tourism: Consequences and perspectives. Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 39–45. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287509355327
- Pearce, D. (1995). Tourism today: A geographical analysis. Longman Scientific & Technical.
- Pelegatti, M. (2016). Timeseries modelling with unobserved components. CRC Press, Taylor and Francis.
- Perloff, J. (2018). Microeconomics. Pearson Higher Ed.
- Phillips, P., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit root in time series regression. Biometrica, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
- Poi, B. (2006). Jackknife instrumental variables estimation in stata. The Stata Journal: Promoting Communications on Statistics and Stata, 6(3), 364–376. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0600600305
- Ridderstaat, J. (2021). Households’ Net financial wealth as a determinant of tourism demand cycles: Evidence from US travel to selected Caribbean destinations. Journal of Travel Research, 60(3), 564–582. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287520925174
- Ridderstaat, J., & Croes, R. (2017). The link between money supply and tourism demand cycles: A case study of Two Caribbean destinations. Journal of Travel Research, 56(2), 187–205. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287515619695
- Ridderstaat, J., Croes, R., & Nijkamp, P. (2013). Tourism development, quality of life and exogenous shocks: A systemic framework. International Journal of Society Systems Science, 5(4), 321–336. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSSS.2013.058465
- Ridderstaat, J., Croes, R., & Nijkamp, P. (2016). The tourism development-quality of life nexus in a small island destination. Journal of Travel Research, 55(1), 1–16. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287514532372
- Ridderstaat, J., Singh, D., & DeMicco, F. (2019). The impact of major tourist markets on health tourism spending in the United States. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 11, 270–280. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2018.05.003
- Roos, M. (2008). Willingness to consume and ability to consume. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 66(2), 387–402. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2006.03.008
- Rosselo-Nadal, J. (2001). Forecasting turning points in international visitor arrivals in the balearic islands. Tourism Economics, 7(4), 365–380. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5367/000000001101297928
- Scheiblecker, M. (2008). The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context.
- Seo, J., Park, S., & Yu, L. (2009). The analysis of the relationships of Korean outbound tourism demand: Jeju Island and three international destinations. Tourism Management, 30(4), 530–543. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2008.10.013
- Smeral, E. (2012). International tourism demand and the business cycle. Annals of Tourism Research, 39(1), 379–400. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2011.07.015
- Smeral, E. (2017). Tourism forecasting performance considering the instability of demand elasticities. Journal of Travel Research, 56(7), 913–926. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287516671435
- Song, H., Li, G., Witt, S., & Fei, B. (2010). Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: How should demand be measured? Tourism Economics, 16(1), 63–81. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5367/000000010790872213
- Song, H., Qiu, R., & Park, J. (2019). A review of research on tourism demand forecasting: Launching the Annals of Tourism Research curated collection on tourism demand forecasting. Annals of Tourism Research, 75, 338–362. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2018.12.001
- Song, H., Witt, S., & Li, G. (2009). The advanced Econometrics of tourism demand. Routledge.
- Stiglitz, J. (2009). The global crisis, social protection and jobs. International Labour Review, 152(1), 93–106.
- Stiglitz, J., Fitoussi, J., & Durand, M. (2019). Measuing what counts: The global movement for well-being. The New Press.
- Stiglitz, J., Sen, A., & Fitoussi, J. (2009). Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress. Retrieved April 12, 2010, from http://www.unstats.un.org
- Stock, J., Wright, J., & Yogo, M. (2002). A survey of weak instruments and weak identification in generalized method if moments. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(4), 518–529. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102288618658
- Thaler, R. (1999). Mental accounting matters. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12(3), 183–206. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199909)12:3<183::AID-BDM318>3.0.CO;2-F
- Tsui, K. (2017). Does a low-cost carrier lead the domestic tourism demand and growth of New Zealand? Tourism Management, 60, 390–403. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2016.10.013
- UNWTO. (2008). International recommendations for tourism statistics. United Nations Publication.
- Wärneryd, K. (1982). The Life and Work of George Katona. Journal of Economic Psychology, 2(1), 1–31. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-4870(82)90008-3
- Wang, L., Fang, B., & Law, R. (2018). Effect of air quality in the place of origin on outbound tourism demand: Disposable income as a moderator. Tourism Management, 68, 152–161. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.03.007
- Wang, Y. (2011). Destination marketing and management: Scope, definition and structures. In A. Pizam, & Y. Wang (Eds.), Destination marketing and management: Theories and applications (pp. 1-20). CABI.
- Waqas-Awan, A., Rosselló-Nadal, J., & Santana-Gallego, M. (2020). New insights into the role of personal income on international tourism. Journal of Travel Research, 60(4), 799–809. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287520907702
- Watt, A. (2008). The economic and financial crisis in Europe: addressing the causes and the repercussions. MPRA Paper.
- Wooldridge, J. (2013). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. South-Western Cengage Learning.
- Yogo, M. (2004). Estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution when instruments are weak. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(3), 797–810. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1162/0034653041811770
- Zhang, C., & Feng, G. (2018). More wealth, less leisure? Effect of housing wealth on tourism expenditure in China. Tourism Economics, 24(5), 526–540. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816618754748
- Zuo, B., & Lai, Z. (2020). The effect of housing wealth on tourism consumption in China: Age and generation cohort comparisons. Tourism Economics, 26(2), 211–232. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619861843