6 An Analysis of the Action-Reaction Behavior in the Defense Expenditures of Turkey and Greece

NOTES

• Brauer , Jurgen . 2002 . “Survey and Review of the Defense Economics Literature on Greece and Turkey: What Have We Learned?” . Defence and Peace Economics , 13 ( No.2 ) April : 85 – 107 . (Jurgen Brauer, “Greece and Turkey: A Comprehensive, Critical Review of the Defense Economics Literature,” in Christos Kollias and Gülay Günlük-Şenesen (eds.), Greece and Turkey in the 21st Century: Conflict or Cooperation? The Political Economy Perspective (New York: Nova Science, forthcoming)
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• Andreou , A. S. , Parsopoulos , K. E. , Vrahatis , M. N. and Zombanakis , G. A. 2002 . “Optimal versus Required Defence Expenditure: The Case of the Greek-Turkish Arms Race,” . Defence and Peace Economics , 13 ( No.4 ) : 330 – 47 . Perhaps the strongest statements are attributed to Andreou et al.: “The existence of an arms race between Greece and Turkey is a well established fact”), and “This is a finding that confirms the leading role of Turkey in this arms race”340). (Aug. pp. 329
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• Dunne , Paul , Nikolaidou , Eftychia and Smith , Ron . June 15–16 2001 . “An Econometric Analysis of the Arms Race between Greece and Turkey,” paper presented at the “Fifth Annual Middlesex Conference on Economics and Security” June 15–16 , London : ECAAR-UK and MUBS . (Ron P. Smith, J. Paul Dunne and Eftychia Nikolaidou, “The Econometrics of Arms Races,” Defence and Peace Economics Vol.11, No.1 (2000), pp. 31–43
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• Smith , Ron P. , Sola , Martin and Spagnolo , Fabio . 2000 . “The Prisoner's Dilemma and Regime-Switching in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race,” . Journal of Peace Research , 37 ( No.6 ) : 737 – 50 .
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• Kollias , Christos . 2001 . “A Look at the Methodological Issues Involved in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race Hypothesis,” . Hellenic Studies , 9 ( No.2 ) Autumn : 91 – 114 . (pp. See also Brauer (2002), pp. 85–107, and Brauer (2003)
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• Kollias , Christos and Paleologou , Suzanna-Maria . Aug. 2002 . “Is There a Greek-Turkish Arms Race? Some Further Empirical Results From Causality Tests,” . Defence and Peace Economics , 13 ( No.4 ) : 321 – 8 . (Nadir Öcal, “Asymmetric Effects of Military Expenditure Between Turkey and Greece,” Defence and Peace Economics Vol.13, No.5 (Oct. 2002), pp. 405–16
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• Brauer . 2002 . 91
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• Brauer . 2002 . 85 – 107 . For detailed discussion of these issues see, for example, Brauer (2003); Dunne et al. (2001); and Kollias (2001), pp. 91–114. See also Michael Intriligator and Dagobert L. Brito, “Arms Races,” Defence and Peace Economics Vol.11, No.1 (2000), pp. 45–54
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• Brauer . 2002 . 103
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• 2003 . Thanks are due to Erhan Keleşoğlu, Hakan Kurunç and the participantsin particular, Ersin Kalaycioğluof the workshop on Greek and Turkish Relations (Sabanci University, Istanbul, June 13–14, for raising these points
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• 2001 . Hellenic Studies , 9 ( No.2 ) Autumn : 73 – 89 . Gülay Günlük-Şenesen, “Turkish Defense Expenditures in View of Ups and Downs in Turkish-Greek Relations: Is There A Reaction?”
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• Ifantis , Kostas . “Power Politics, Security Dilemma, and Crisis Behaviour: The Case of Imia,” . Hellenic Studies , 9 ( No.2 ) 29 – 48 . (Autumn 2001)
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• Athanassiou , Emmanuel and Kollias , Christos . 2000 . “Military Tension and Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from the Greek-Turkish Rivalry,” . In The Economics of Regional Security Edited by: Brauer , Jurgen and Hartley , Keith . 97 – 112 . Singapore : Harwood . This table is a revised version of Table 1 in Günlük-Şenesen (2001). Thanks are due to Gülden Ayman and Faruk Sönmezoğlu for guidance. Updating was based on information provided by Faruk Sönmezoğlu, to whom I am especially indebted for his patience and support. All errors are mine. The table was compiled from the following sources: (Emmanuel Athanassiou and Christos Kollias, “Modeling the Effects of Military Tension on Foreign Trade: Some Preliminary Empirical Findings from the Greek-Turkish Rivalry,” Defence and Peace Economics Vol.13, No.5 (Oct. 2002), pp. 417–27; Tozun Bahcheli, “Turkish Policy Toward Greece,” in Alan Makovsky and Sabri Sayari (eds.), Turkey's New World: Changing Dynamics in Turkish Foreign Policy (Washington DC: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2000), pp. 131–52; Christos Kollias and Stelios Makrydakis, “Is there a Greek-Turkish Arms Race? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests,” Defence and Peace Economics Vol.8, No.4 (1997), pp. 355–79; Christos Kollias, “The Greek-Turkish Conflict and Greek Military Expenditure 1960–92,” Journal of Peace Research Vol.33, No.2 (1996), pp. 217–28; and Faruk Sönmezoğlu, Türkiye ve Yunanistan İişkileri & Büyük Güçler [Turkish Greek Relations and Great Powers] (Istanbul: Der, 2000). Consequent diplomatic contacts (such as the Davos meetings, with the exception of the one in 1998 which was important for tension reduction) are left out of the list due to their high frequency and less significant outcomes
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• The data for Figure 1 was provided by Christos Kollias. Thanks are due to him for sharing his data-set
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• Percentage changes in military expenditures are plotted in Figure A1 in the Appendix to complement the present analysis for the whole period
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• 2002 . Türkiye 'de Savunma Harcamalari ve Ekonomik Etkileri 1980–2001 [Defense Spending in Turkey and Its Economic Effects] 82 – 5 . Istanbul : TESEV . These deviations regarding Turkey are discussed in Gülay Günlük-Şenesen
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• 2002 . 73 – 83 . Günlük-Şenesenpp. 18.
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• Although SIPRI Yearbooks are prepared with utmost care, they occasionally suffer from typos: for example, Turkish military equipment spending for 1985 (in 1988 USD prices) is given as 3,336, both in the 1991 and 1992 yearbooks. This value is 11 times the value of 1984, which is implausible (see SIPR1 Yearbook 1991 [OUP, 1991], p. 133, and SIPRI Yearbook 1992 [OUP, 1992], p. 229). This flaw is not observed for 1985 in later publications. It is presumed in Table 2 that the value for Turkey is 336 (in 1988 USD prices) for 1985, which appears consistent with the remaining series
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• Interestingly, values for percentage changes in military equipment spending as published in SIPRI Yearbooks are consistent for all base years. These values are plotted in Figure A2 in the Appendix. By applying these percentage changes to 1998 USD data, we also estimated a complete series for both countries for the whole period. While the time pattern is the same, however, relative ratios are not reliable. We chose to present original data here
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• 2002 . SIPRI Yearbook 2002 229 OUP . In terms of aggregate volume of transfers of major conventional weapons for 1997–2001, Turkey ranks forth following Taiwan, China and Saudi Arabia; Greece ranks sixth following India. The total for Turkey is 5,028 and for Greece is 4,436 (both in 1990 USD prices).(p
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• US Department of State, Bureau of Verification and Compliance . 2002 . World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers 1999–2000 Washington For example
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• Note, for example, that for 1999, very steep increases are observed for both countries with WMEAT data, but very steep decreases are observed for both countries with SIPRI data. The magnitudes of percentage changes in the data for Figure 4 vary in a very wide range, as would be expected; these, therefore, are not presented in the Appendix
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• Günlük-Şenesen . 2001 . 73 – 89 .
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