Incorporating ‘catastrophic’ climate change into policy analysisFootnote

† The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the US Environmental Protection Agency.

References

• Alley, R., Marotzke, J., Nordhaus, W., Overpeck, J., Peteet, D., Pielke, R., … Rhines, P. (2003). Abrupt climate change. Science, 299, 2005–2010. doi: 10.1126/science.1081056
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Allison, I., Bindoff, N. L., Bindschadler, R. A., Cox, P. M., de Noblet, N., England, M. H., … Weaver, A. J. (2009). The Copenhagen diagnosis, 2009: Updating the world on the latest climate science. Sydney: The University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC).
   Google Scholar
• Anthoff, D., Hepburn, C., & Tol, R. (2009). Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change. Ecological Economics, 68, 836–849. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.06.017
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Anthoff, D., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., & Vafeidis, A. T. (2006). Global and regional exposure to large rises in sea-level: A sensitivity analysis (Working Paper 96). Norwich: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
   Google Scholar
• Baranzini, A., Chesney, M., & Morisset, J. (2003). The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy. Energy Policy, 31, 691–701. doi: 10.1016/S0301-4215(02)00101-5
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barnosky, A. D., Hadly, E. A., Bascompte, J., Berlow, E. L., Brown, J. H., Fortelius, M., … Smith, A. B. (2012). Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere. Nature, 486, 52–58. doi: 10.1038/nature11018
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cai, Y., Judd, K. L., & Lontzek, S. (2012). The social cost of abrupt climate change. Working paper prepared for Conference on Climate and the Economy. Stockholm, Sweden: Stockholm University Institute for International Economic Studies.
   Google Scholar
• Calvin, K. V., Edmonds, J. A., Bond-Lamberty, B., Clarke, L. E., Kim, S. H., Kyle, G. P., … Wise, M. A. (2009). 2.6: Limiting climate change to 450 ppm CO2 equivalent in the 21st century. Energy Economics, 31(2), S107–S120. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2009.06.006
   Google Scholar
• Castelnuovo, E., Moretto, M., & Vergalli, S. (2003). Global warming, uncertainty and endogenous technical change. Environmental Modelling and Assessment, 8, 291–301. doi: 10.1023/B:ENMO.0000004582.29948.d4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ceronsky, M., Anthoff, D., Hepburn, C. J., & Tol, R. S. J. (2011). Checking the price tag on catastrophe: The social cost of carbon under non-linear climate response (Working Paper No. 392). Dublin, Ireland: Economic and Social Research Institute.
   Google Scholar
• Collins, M., An, S.-Il., Cai, W., Ganachaud, A., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F.-F., … Wittenberg, A. (2010). The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño. Nature Geoscience, 3, 391–397. doi: 10.1038/ngeo868
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cooke, R. M. (2013). Quantifying uncertainty on thin ice. Nature Climate Change, 13, 311–312. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1860
   Google Scholar
• Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Collins, M., Harris, P. P., Huntingford, C., & Jones, C. D. (2004). Amazonian forest dieback under climate–carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 137–156. doi: 10.1007/s00704-004-0049-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., Spall, S. A., & Totterdell, I. J. (2000). Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature, 408, 184–187. doi: 10.1038/35041539
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cropper, M. (1976). Regulating activities with catastrophic environmental effects. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 3, 1–15. doi: 10.1016/0095-0696(76)90009-7
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cropper, M. (2013). How should benefits and costs be discounted in an intergenerational context? Resources, 183, 30–35.
   Google Scholar
• Davidson, E. A., de Araújo, A. C., Artaxo, P., Balch, J. K., Foster Brown, I., Bustamante, M. M. C., … Wofsy, S. C. (2012). The Amazon Basin in transition. Nature, 481, 321–328. doi: 10.1038/nature10717
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Deser, C., Tomas, R., Alexander, M., & Lawrence, D. (2010). The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic Sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. Journal of Climate, 23, 333–350. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3053.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dixit, A. K., & Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment under uncertainty. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Fisher, A. C., & Narain, U. (2003). Global warming, endogenous risk, and irreversibility. Environmental Resource Economics, 25, 395–416. doi: 10.1023/A:1025056530035
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gjerde, J., Grepperud, S., & Kverndokk, S. (1999). Optimal climate policy under the possibility of a catastrophe. Resource and Energy Economics, 21, 289–317. doi: 10.1016/S0928-7655(99)00006-8
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hendricks, D. (1992). Optimal policy response to an uncertain threat: The case of global warming. Unpublished manuscript, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
   Google Scholar
• Holling, C. (1973). Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecological Systems, 4, 1–23. doi: 10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245
   Google Scholar
• Hope, C. (2006). The marginal impacts of CO2, CH4, and SF6 emissions. Climate Policy, 6, 537–544. doi: 10.1080/14693062.2006.9685619
   Google Scholar
• Hope, C. (2011). The social cost of CO2 from the PAGE09 model. Economics. Discussion Paper No. 2011–39.
   Google Scholar
• Hulme, M. (2003). Abrupt climate change: Can society cope? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A, 361, 2001–2021. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2003.1239
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• IPCC. (1996). Climate change 1995 – The science of climate change (Working Group I, Second Assessment Report). Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
   Google Scholar
• IPCC. (2007a). Global climate projections (Working Group I Report: The physical science basis). Fourth Assessment Report, Ch. 10. Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
   Google Scholar
• IPCC. (2007b). A report of Working Group I: Summary for policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Keller, K., Tan, K., Morel, F., & Bradford, D. (2000). Preserving the ocean circulation: Implications for climate policy. Climatic Change, 47, 17–43. doi: 10.1023/A:1005624909182
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Keller, K., Tol, R., Toth, F., & Yohe, G. (2008). Abrupt climate change near the poles. Climatic Change, 91, 1–4. doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-9487-9
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kolstad, C. D. (1996). Fundamental irreversibilities in stock externalities. Journal of Public Economics, 60, 221–233. doi: 10.1016/0047-2727(95)01521-3
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kriegler, E., Hall, J., Held, H., Dawson, R., & Schellnhuber, H. (2009). Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 5041–5046. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0809117106
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lemoine, D., & Traeger, C. (2012). Tipping points and ambiguity in the economics of climate change (Working Paper No. 18230). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
   Google Scholar
• Lenton, T. (2009). Tipping points in the earth system. Retrieved from http://researchpages.net/ESMG/people/tim-lenton/tipping-points/
   Google Scholar
• Lenton, T. (2011). Early warning of climate tipping points. Nature Climate Change, 1, 201–109. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1143
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lenton, T., & Ciscar, J.-C. (2013). Integrating tipping points into climate impact assessments. Climatic Change, 117, 585–597. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0572-8
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lenton, T., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J., Lucht, W., & Rahmstorf, S. (2008). Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105, 1786–1793. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0705414105
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lenton, T. M., Footitt, A., & Dlugolecki, A. (2009). Major tipping points in the Earth's climate system and consequences for the insurance sector. WWF/Allianz.
   Google Scholar
• Link, P. M., & Tol, R. S. J. (2004). Possible economic impacts of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: An application of FUND. Portuguese Economic Journal, 3, 99–114. doi: 10.1007/s10258-004-0033-z
   Google Scholar
• Link, P. M., & Tol, R. S. J. (2011). Estimation of the economic impact of temperature changes induced by a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: An application of FUND. Climatic Change, 104, 287–304. doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9796-7
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Little, C. M., Urbana, N. M., & Oppenheimer, M. (2013). Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110, 3264–3269. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1214457110
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mastrandrea, M., & Schneider, S. (2001). Integrated assessment of abrupt climatic changes. Climate Policy, 1, 433–449. doi: 10.3763/cpol.2001.0146
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• May, R. (1977). Thresholds and breakpoints in ecosystems with a multiplicity of stable states. Nature, 269, 471–477. doi: 10.1038/269471a0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moore, J. C., Grinsted, A., Zwinger, T., & Jevrejeva, S. (2013). Semi-empirical and process-based global sea level projections. Reviews of Geophysics, 51(3), 484–522. doi: 10.1002/rog.20015
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• National Academy of Sciences. (2010). Hidden costs of energy: Unpriced consequences of energy production and use. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
   Google Scholar
• National Research Council. (2002). Abrupt climate change: Inevitable surprises. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
   Google Scholar
• Nicholls, R. J., Marinova, N., Lowe, J. A., Brown, S., Vellinga, P., de Gusmão, D., … Tol, R. S. J. (2011). Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 369, 161–181.
   Google Scholar
• Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., & Vafeidis, A. T. (2008). Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: An application of FUND. Climatic Change, 91, 171–191. doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-9424-y
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nobre, C., & Borma, L. (2009). ‘Tipping points’ for the Amazon forest. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, 28–36. doi: 10.1016/j.cosust.2009.07.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nordhaus, W. D. (1994a). Expert opinion on climatic change. American Scientist, 82, 45–45.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nordhaus, W. D. (1994b). Managing the global commons: The economics of climate change. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
   Google Scholar
• Nordhaus, W. D. (2008). A question of balance: Weighing the options on global warming policies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Nordhaus, W. D. (2010a). Economic aspects of global warming in a post-Copenhagen environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107, 11721–11726. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1005985107
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nordhaus, W. D. (2010b). The economics of hurricanes and implications of global warming. Climate Change Economics, 1, 1–20. doi: 10.1142/S2010007810000054
   Google Scholar
• Nordhaus, W. D., & Boyer, J. (2000). Warming the world: Economic models of global warming. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
   Google Scholar
• Perrings, C. (2003). The economics of abrupt climate change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 361, 2043–2059. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2003.1242
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pindyck, R. S. (2000). Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy. Resource and Energy Economics, 22, 233–259. doi: 10.1016/S0928-7655(00)00033-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pindyck, R. S. (2012). The climate policy dilemma (Working Paper No. w18205). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
   Google Scholar
• Pindyck, R. S., & Wang, N. (2012). The economic and policy consequences of catastrophes (Working Paper No. 15373). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
   Google Scholar
• Pollard, D., & DeConto, R. M. (2009). Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years. Nature, 458, 329–332. doi: 10.1038/nature07809
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Posner, R. (2004). Catastrophe: Risk and Response. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Rahmstorf, S., & Ganopolski, A. (1999). Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model. Climatic Change, 43, 353–367. doi: 10.1023/A:1005474526406
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rammig, A., Jupp, T., Thonicke, K., Tietjen, B., Heinke, J., Ostberg, S., … Cox, P. (2010). Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback. New Phytologist, 187, 694–706. doi: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03318.x
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rockstrom, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., Persson, Å., Stuart Chapin, F.III, Lambin, E. F., … Foley, J. A. (2009). A safe operating space for humanity. Nature, 461, 472–475. doi: 10.1038/461472a
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schaefer, K., Zhang, T., Bruhwiler, L., & Barrett, A. P. (2011). Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming. Tellus, 63B, 165–180. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x
   Google Scholar
• Schlesinger, M., Kheshgi, H., Smith, J., de la Chesnaye, F., Reilly, J., Wilson, T., & Kolstad, C. (2007). Human-induced climate change: An interdisciplinary assessment. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Schmittner, A., & Stocker, T. F. (1999). The stability of the thermohaline circulation in global warming experiments. Journal of Climate, 12, 1117–1133. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1117:TSOTTC>2.0.CO;2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schneider, S. (2003). Abrupt non-linear climate change, irreversibility and surprise (Workshop on the Benefits of Climate Policy: Improving Information for Policy Makers, ENV/EPOC/GPS(2003)13/FINAL). Paris, France: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development.
   Google Scholar
• Sheffer, M., Carpenter, S., Foley, J., Folkes, C., & Walker, B. (2001). Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature, 413, 591–596. doi: 10.1038/35098000
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shindell, D. (2007). Estimating the potential for twenty-first century sudden climate change. Philosophical Transactions: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365, 2675–2694. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2088
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stocker, T. F., & Schmittner, A. (1997). Influence of CO2 emissions rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation. Nature, 388, 862–865. doi: 10.1038/42224
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stroeve, J. C., Kattsov, V., Barrett, A., Serreze, M., Pavlova, T., Holland, M., & Meier, W. N. (2012). Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L16502. doi: 10.1029/2012GL052676
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tol, R. (2002a). Estimates of the damage costs of climate change. Part I: benchmark estimates. Environmental and Resource Economics, 21, 47–73. doi: 10.1023/A:1014500930521
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tol, R. (2002b). Estimates of the damage costs of climate change. Part II: dynamic estimates. Environmental and Resource Economics, 21, 135–160. doi: 10.1023/A:1014539414591
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tol, R. (2009). An analysis of mitigation as a response to climate change (Discussion Paper). Copenhagen Consensus on Climate.
   Google Scholar
• Tsur, Y., & Zemel, A. (1996). Accounting for global warming risks: Resource management under event uncertainty. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 20, 1289–1305. doi: 10.1016/0165-1889(95)00900-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• UNFCCC. (2009). Copenhagen Accord. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Retrieved from http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/l07.pdf
   Google Scholar
• USCCSP. (2008). Abrupt Climate Change (Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.4). United States Climate Change Science Program.
   Google Scholar
• Vellinga, M., & Wood, R. A. (2002). Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Climatic Change, 54, 251–267. doi: 10.1023/A:1016168827653
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vellinga, M., & Wood, R. A. (2008). Impacts of thermohaline circulation shutdown in the twenty-first century. Climatic Change, 91, 43–63. doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9146-y
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weitzman, M. (2009). On modelling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change. Review of Economics and Statistics, 91, 1–19. doi: 10.1162/rest.91.1.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weitzman, M. (2011). Fat-tailed uncertainty in the economics of catastrophic climate change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 5, 275–292. doi: 10.1093/reep/rer006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Williams, P. (2009). Rapid climate change: An overview for economists. International Journal of Green Economics, 3, 63–76. doi: 10.1504/IJGE.2009.026492
   Google Scholar
• Yohe, G. (1996). Exercises in hedging against extreme consequences of global change and the expected value of information. Global Environmental Change, 6(2), 87–101. doi: 10.1016/0959-3780(96)00004-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar