Uncertainty management and the dynamic adjustment of deep decarbonization pathways

References

• Anadon, L. D., Nemet, G., & Verdolini, E. (2013). The future costs of nuclear power using multiple expert elicitations: Effects of RD&D and elicitation design. Environmental Research Letters, 8(3), 034020. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034020
   Google Scholar
• Arditi, M., Durdilly, R., Lavergne, R., Trigano, E., Colombier, M., Criqui, P., … Masset, P. (2012). Quelle trajectoire pour atteindre le mix énergétique en 2025? Quels types de scénarios possibles à horizons 2030 et 2050, dans le respect des engagements climatiques de la France? Rapport du groupe de travail n°2 du conseil national sur la transition énergétique. 72p.
   Google Scholar
• Bezat, J.-M. (2015, September 4). Nucléaire: la facture de l’EPR s’alourdit encore. Le nouveau réacteur de Flamanville devrait être mis en service fin 2018. Le Monde.
   Google Scholar
• Blyth, W., Bradley, R., Bunn, D., Clarke, C., Wilson, T., & Yang, M. (2007). Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy. Energy Policy, 35(11), 5766–5773. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.030
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• BMWi (Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy). (2014a). Zweiter Monitoring-Bericht. “Energie der Zukunft”. Berlin. Retrieved from http://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Redaktion/PDF/Publikationen/zweiter-monitoring-bericht-energie-der-zukunft,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=de,rwb=true.pdf
   Google Scholar
• BMWi (Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy). (2014b). Die Energie der Zukunft. Erster Fortschrittsbericht zur Energiewende. Berlin. Retrieved from http://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Redaktion/PDF/Publikationen/fortschrittsbericht,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=de,rwb=true.pdf
   Google Scholar
• BMWi (Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy). (2015). A good piece of work. The Energy of the Future, Fourth “Energy Transition” Monitoring Report – Summary. Berlin. Retrieved from http://www.bmwi.de/English/Redaktion/Pdf/vierter-monitoring-bericht-energie-der-zukunft-kurzfassung,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=en,rwb=true.pdf
   Google Scholar
• BMWi (Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology)/BMU (Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety). (2012). Erster Monitoring-Bericht, “Energie der Zukunft”. Berlin. Retrieved from http://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Redaktion/PDF/Publikationen/erster-monitoring-bericht-energie-der-zukunft,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=de,rwb=true.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Boccard, N. (2014). The cost of nuclear electricity: France after Fukushima. Energy Policy, 66, 450–461. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.11.037
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bullier, A., & Milin, C. (2013). Alternative financing schemes for energy efficiency in buildings. ECEEE.
   Google Scholar
• Chai, K. H., & Yeo, C. (2012). Overcoming energy efficiency barriers through systems approach – A conceptual framework. Energy Policy, 46, 460–472. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.012
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• DDPP (Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project). (2015). Pathways to deep decarbonization 2015 report. SDSN – IDDRI.
   Google Scholar
• DeCanio, S. J. (1998). The efficiency paradox: Bureaucratic and organizational barriers to profitable energy-saving investments. Energy Policy, 26(5), 441–454. doi: 10.1016/S0301-4215(97)00152-3
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dechezleprêtre, A., Glachant, M., Haščič, I., Johnstone, N., & Ménière, Y. (2011). Invention and transfer of climate change–mitigation technologies: A global analysis. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 5(1), 109–130. doi: 10.1093/reep/req023
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dewar, J. A., Builder, C. H., Hix, W. M., & Levin, M. H. (1993). Assumption-based planning: A planning tool for very uncertain times (Report MR-114-A). Santa Monica, CA: RAND.
   Google Scholar
• Dewey, J. (1927). The public and its problems. New York, NY: Holt.
   Google Scholar
• Escobar Rangel, L., & Lévêque, F. (2015, September). Revisiting the cost escalation curse of nuclear power generation: New lessons from the French experience. Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy, Vol. 4.
   Google Scholar
• Fischedick, M. (2014). Transformation phases and corresponding challenges for a 100% renewable energy system. EUREC College of Members. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy. Retrieved from http://www.eurec.be/en/upload/docs/pdf/CoM_47/No1_Folien%20MF%20EUREC%20Impuls_svi_1_S.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Global CCS Institute. (2013, January). The global status of CCS. Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute Ltd., Canberra (Update).
   Google Scholar
• Grand, D., Le Brun, C., & Vidil, R. (2014, May–June). Transition énergétique et mix électrique: les énergies renouvelables peuvent – elles compenser une réduction du nucléaire? Revue de l’Energie, 619.
   Google Scholar
• Grübler, A. (2010). The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing. Energy Policy, 38(9), 5174–5188. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.05.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J. H., Walker, W. E., & ter Maat, J. (2013). Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world. Global Environmental Change, 23(2), 485–498. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., & van Deursen, W. P. A. (2011). A method to develop sustainable water management strategies for an uncertain future. Sustainable Development, 19, 369–381. doi: 10.1002/sd.438
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., van Beek, E., & van Deursen, W. P. A. (2012). Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change, 115, 795–819. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0444-2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hillebrandt, K., Samadi, S., & Fischedick, M. (2015). Pathways to deep decarbonization in Germany. SDSN – IDDRI.
   Google Scholar
• Hirth, L., Ueckerdt, F., & Edenhofer, O. (2015). Integration costs revisited – An economic framework for wind and solar variability. Renewable Energy, 74, 925–939. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.08.065
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jaffe, A. B., & Stavins, R. N. (1994). Markets for energy efficiency: The energy-efficiency gap: What does it mean? Energy Policy, 22(10), 804–810. doi: 10.1016/0301-4215(94)90138-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Johnstone, N., Haščič, I., & Popp, D. (2010). Renewable energy policies and technological innovation: Evidence based on patent counts. Environmental and Resource Economics, 45(1), 133–155. doi: 10.1007/s10640-009-9309-1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kann, A., & Weyant, J. P. (2000). Approaches for performing uncertainty analysis in large-scale energy/economic policy models. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 5(1), 29–46. doi: 10.1023/A:1019041023520
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kern, F., Gaede, J., Meadowcroft, J., & Watson, J. (2016). The political economy of carbon capture and storage: An analysis of two demonstration projects. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 102, 250–260. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.09.010
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kumbaroğlu, G., Madlener, R., & Demirel, M. (2008). A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies. Energy Economics, 30(4), 1882–1908. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2006.10.009
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kwakkel, J. H., Haasnoot, M., & Walker, W. E. (2015). Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world. Climatic Change, 132(3), 373–386. doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1210-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lempert, R. J., & Schlesinger, M. E. (2000). Robust strategies for abating climate change. Climatic Change, 45(3), 387–401. doi: 10.1023/A:1005698407365
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lévêque, F. (2014). The economics and uncertainties of nuclear power. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Löschel, A., Erdmann, G., Staiß, F., & Ziesing, H. J. (2012). Expertenkommission zum Monitoring-Prozess. “Energie der Zukunft”. Stellungnahme zum ersten Monitoring-Bericht der Bundesregierung für das Berichtsjahr 2011. Berlin, Mannheim and Stuttgart. Retrieved from http://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Redaktion/PDF/M-O/monotoringbericht-stellungnahme-lang,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=de,rwb=true.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Löschel, A., Erdmann, G., Staiß, F., & Ziesing, H. J. (2014a). Expertenkommission zum Monitoring-Prozess. “Energie der Zukunft”. Stellungnahme zum zweiten Monitoring-Bericht der Bundesregierung für das Berichtsjahr 2012. Berlin, Mannheim and Stuttgart. Retrieved from http://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Redaktion/PDF/M-O/monitoringbericht-energie-der-zukunft-stellungnahme,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=de,rwb=true.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Löschel, A., Erdmann, G., Staiß, F., & Ziesing, H. J. (2014b). Expertenkommission zum Monitoring-Prozess. “Energie der Zukunft”. Stellungnahme zum ersten Fortschrittsberichtder Bundesregierung für das Berichtsjahr 2013. Berlin, Münster and Stuttgart. Retrieved from http://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Redaktion/PDF/M-O/monitoringbericht-energie-der-zukunft-stellungnahme-2013,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=de,rwb=true.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Löschel, A., Erdmann, G., Staiß, F., & Ziesing, H. J. (2015). Stellungnahme zum vierten Monitoring-Bericht der Bundesregierung für das Berichtsjahr 2014. Berlin, Münster and Stuttgart. Retrieved from http://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Redaktion/PDF/M-O/monitoringbericht-energie-der-zukunft-stellungnahme-2014,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=de,rwb=true.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Marcantonini, C., & Ellerman, A. D. (2014). The implicit carbon price of renewable energy incentives in Germany. Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Research Paper No. RSCAS, 28.
   Google Scholar
• Markandya, A., & Pemberton, M. (2010). Energy security, energy modelling and uncertainty. Energy Policy, 38(4), 1609–1613. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.01.046
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mathy, S., Criqui, P., & Hourcade, J. C. (2015). Pathways to deep decarbonization in 2050 in France. The French report of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations.
   Google Scholar
• Parson, E. A., & Karwat, D. (2011). Sequential climate change policy. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2(5), 744–756.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Quinet, A. (2009). La valeur tutélaire du carbone Rapport de la commission présidée par Alain Quinet. La documentation française, Rapport n°16, 424 pp.
   Google Scholar
• Ritzenhofen, I., & Spinler, S. (2016). Optimal design of feed-in-tariffs to stimulate renewable energy investments under regulatory uncertainty – A real options analysis. Energy Economics, 53, 76–89. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.12.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schleich, J., & Gruber, E. (2008). Beyond case studies: Barriers to energy efficiency in commerce and the services sector. Energy Economics, 30(2), 449–464. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2006.08.004
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Swanson, D. A., & Bhadwal, S. (Eds.). (2009). Creating adaptive policies: A guide for policy-making in an uncertain world. New Delhi: Sage Publications.
   Google Scholar
• Wagner, A. (2014). Residual demand modeling and application to electricity pricing. The Energy Journal, 35(2), 45–73. doi: 10.5547/01956574.35.2.3
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Walker, W. E., Marchau, V. A. W. J., & Swanson, D. A. (2010). Addressing deep uncertainty using adaptive policies: Introduction to section 2. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(6), 917–923. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.004
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Walker, W. E., Rahman, S. A., & Cave, J. (2001). Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making. European Journal of Operational Research, 128(2), 282–289. doi: 10.1016/S0377-2217(00)00071-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yang, M., Blyth, W., Bradley, R., Bunn, D., Clarke, C., & Wilson, T. (2008). Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy. Energy Economics, 30(4), 1933–1950. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2007.06.004
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zeng, Y., Cai, Y., Huang, G., & Dai, J. (2011). A review on optimization modeling of energy systems planning and GHG emission mitigation under uncertainty. Energies, 4(10), 1624–1656. doi: 10.3390/en4101624
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar