The value of information about solar geoengineering and the two-sided cost of bias

References

• Arino, Y., Akimoto, K., Sano, F., Homma, T., Oda, J., & Tomoda, T. (2016). Estimating option values of solar radiation management assuming that climate sensitivity is uncertain. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(21), 5886–5891. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1520795113
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Belaia, M., Moreno-Cruz, J., & Keith, D. (2021). Optimal climate policy in 3D: Mitigation, carbon removal, and solar geoengineering. Climate Change Economics, 12(3), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007821500081
   Google Scholar
• Cairns, R. C. (2014). Climate geoengineering: Issues of path-dependence and socio-technical lock-in. WIRES Climate Change, 5(5), 649–661. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.296
   Google Scholar
• Dai, Z., Burns, E. T., Irvine, P. J., Tingley, D. H., Xu, J., & Keith, D. W. (2021). Elicitation of US and Chinese expert judgments show consistent views on solar geoengineering. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 8(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-00694-6
   Google Scholar
• Dai, Z., Weisenstein, D. K., & Keith, D. W. (2018). Tailoring meridional and seasonal radiative forcing by sulfate aerosol solar geoengineering. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(2), 1030–1039. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076472
   Google Scholar
• Flegal, J. A., Hubert, A.-M., Morrow, D. R., & Moreno-Cruz, J. B. (2019). Solar geoengineering: Social science, legal, ethical, and economic frameworks. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 44(1), 399–423. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-030032
   Google Scholar
• Goeschl, T., Heyen, D., & Moreno-Cruz, J. (2013). The intergenerational transfer of solar radiation management capabilities and atmospheric carbon stocks. Environmental and Resource Economics, 56(1), 85–104. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-013-9647-x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Golub, A., Narita, D., & Schmidt, M. G. (2014). Uncertainty in integrated assessment models of climate change: Alternative analytical approaches. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 19(2), 99–109. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-013-9386-y
   Google Scholar
• Grieger, K. D., Felgenhauer, T., Renn, O., Wiener, J., & Borsuk, M. (2019). Emerging risk governance for stratospheric aerosol injection as a climate management technology. Environment Systems and Decisions, 39(4), 371–382. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-019-09730-6
   Google Scholar
• Heyen, D. (2019). Risk Governance and the strategic role of uncertainty. In R. N. Stavins, & R. C. Stowe (Eds.) (pp. 91–94). Governance of the Deployment of Solar Geoengineering.
   Google Scholar
• Honegger, M. (2020). Addressing risks and trade-offs in governance. In M.-V. Florin (Ed.), International governance issues on climate engineering: Information for policymakers (pp. 72–90). Lausanne: EPFL International Risk Governance Center (IRGC).
   Google Scholar
• IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The physical Science basis. Contribution of working Group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, & B. Zhou, Eds.). Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Irvine, P., Emanuel, K., He, J., Horowitz, L. W., Vecchi, G., & Keith, D. (2019). Halving warming with idealized solar geoengineering moderates key climate hazards. Nature Climate Change, 1(9), 295–299. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0398-8.
   Google Scholar
• Irvine, P. J., & Keith, D. W. (2020). Halving warming with stratospheric aerosol geoengineering moderates policy-relevant climate hazards. Environmental Research Letters, 15(4), 044011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab76de
   Google Scholar
• Keith, D. W. (2000). Geoengineering the climate: History and prospect. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, 25(1), 245–284. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.25.1.245
   Google Scholar
• Keith, D. W. (2021). Toward constructive disagreement about geoengineering. Science, 374(6569), 812–815. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj1587
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Knutti, R., Rugenstein, M. A. A., & Hegerl, G. C. (2017). Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity. Nature Geoscience, 10(10), 727–736. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3017
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Mills, M. J., Richter, J. H., Tilmes, S., Lamarque, J.-F., Tribbia, J. J., & Vitt, F. (2017). First simulations of designing stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering to meet Multiple simultaneous climate objectives. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122(23), 12616–12634. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026874
   Google Scholar
• Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Robock, A., Rasch, P. J., Ricke, K. L., Cole, J. N., Curry, C. L., Irvine, P. J., Ji, D., Keith, D. W., Kristjánsson, J. E., Moore, J. E., Muri, J. C., Singh, B., Tilmes, S., Watanabe, S., Yang, S., Yoon, J.-H. (2014). A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering. Environmental Research Letters, 9(7), 074013. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074013
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McKinnon, C. (2019). Sleepwalking into lock-in? Avoiding wrongs to future people in the governance of solar radiation management research. Environmental Politics, 28(3), 441–459. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2018.1450344
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McLaren, D., & Corry, O. (2021). The politics and governance of research into solar geoengineering. WIRES Climate Change, 12(3), e707. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.707
   Google Scholar
• Moreno-Cruz, J. B., & Keith, D. W. (2013). Climate policy under uncertainty: A case for solar geoengineering. Climatic Change, 121(3), 431–444. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0487-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moreno-Cruz, J. B., Ricke, K. L., & Keith, D. W. (2012). A simple model to account for regional inequalities in the effectiveness of solar radiation management. Climatic Change, 110(3), 649–668. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0103-z
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• National Academies of Sciences. (2021). Reflecting Sunlight: Recommendations for Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance. https://doi.org/10.17226/25762
   Google Scholar
• Nordhaus, W. D. (2017). Revisiting the social cost of carbon. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(7), 1518–1523. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1609244114.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Parson, E. A. (2021). Geoengineering: Symmetric precaution. Science, 374(6569), 795–795. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abm8462
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Quaas, M. F., Quaas, J., Rickels, W., & Boucher, O. (2017). Are there reasons against open-ended research into solar radiation management? A model of intergenerational decision-making under uncertainty. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 84, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.02.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ricke, K. L., Rowlands, D. J., Ingram, W. J., Keith, D. W., & Granger Morgan, M. (2012). Effectiveness of stratospheric solar-radiation management as a function of climate sensitivity. Nature Climate Change, 2(2), 92–96. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1328
   Google Scholar
• Sherwood, S. C., Webb, M. J., Annan, J. D., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M., Hargreaves, J. C., Hegerl, G., Klein, S. A., Marvel, K. D., Rohling, E. J., Watanabe, M., Andrews, T., Braconnot, P., Bretherton, C. S., Foster, G. L., Hausfather, Z., von der Heydt, A. S., Knutti, R., Mauritsen, T., … Zelinka, M. D. (2020). An assessment of earth’s climate sensitivity using Multiple lines of evidence. Reviews of Geophysics, 58(4), e2019RG000678. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000678
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smith, W., & Wagner, G. (2018). Stratospheric aerosol injection tactics and costs in the first 15 years of deployment. Environmental Research Letters, 13(12), 124001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weitzman, M. L. (2015). A voting architecture for the governance of free-driver externalities, with application to geoengineering. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1049–1068. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12120
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar