West Antarctic ice sheet and CO₂ greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster

References

• Ackert, R. P., Putnam, A. E., Mukhopadhyay, S., Pollard, D., Deconto, R. M., Kurz, M. D., & Borns, H. W. (2013). Controls on interior West Antarctic Ice Sheet elevations: inferences from geologic constraints and ice sheet modeling. Quaternary Science Reviews, 65, 26–38.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Arndt, J. E., Larter, R. D., Friedl, P., Gohl, K., & Höppner, K. (2018). Bathymetric controls on calving processes at Pine Island glacier. The Cryosphere, 12(6), 2039–2050. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2039-2018
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Balter-Kennedy, A., Bromley, G., Balco, G., Thomas, H., & Jackson, M. S. (2020). A 14.5-million-year record of East Antarctic Ice Sheet fluctuations from the central Transantarctic Mountains, constrained with cosmogenic 3He, 10Be, 21Ne, and 26Al. The Cryosphere, 14(8), 2647–2672. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2647-2020
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barnes, D. K., Walker, C. C., & Hillenbrand, C. D. (2010). Faunal evidence for a late Quaternary trans-Antarctic seaway. Global Change Biology, 16(12), 3297–3303. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02198.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bassis, J. N., & Walker, C. C. (2012). Upper and lower limits on the stability of calving glaciers from the yield strength envelope of ice. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 468(2140), 913–931. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2011.0422
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Benn, D. I., & Åström, J. A. (2018). Calving glaciers and ice shelves. Advances in Physics: X, 3(1), 1513819. https://doi.org/10.1080/23746149.2018.1513819
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Christie, F. D., Bingham, R. G., Gourmelen, N., Tett, S. F., & Muto, A. (2016). Four-decade record of pervasive grounding line retreat along the Bellingshausen margin of West Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(11), 5741–5749. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068972
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Clerc, F., Minchew, B. M., & Behn, M. D. (2019). Marine ice cliff instability mitigated by slow removal of ice shelves. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(21), 12108–12116. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084183
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cook, A. J., & Vaughan, D. G. (2010). Overview of areal changes of the ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 50 years. The Cryosphere, 4(1), 77–98. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-77-2010
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Crawford, A. J., Benn, D. I., Todd, J., Åström, J. A., Bassis, J., & Zwinger, T.. (in review). Marine ice-cliff instability modelling shows mixed-mode failure and yields calving rate law. Nature Geoscience.
   Google Scholar
• DeConto, R. M., & Pollard, D. (2016). Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature, 531(7596), 591–597. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dunbar, N. W., McIntosh, W. C., & Esser, R. P. (2008). Physical setting and tephrochronology of the summits caldera ice record at Mount Moulton, West Antarctica. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 120(7–8), 796–812. https://doi.org/10.1130/B26140.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Edwards, T. L., Brandon, M. A., Durand, G., Edwards, N. R., Golledge, N. R., Holden, P. B., Nias, I. J., Payne, A. J., Ritz, C., & Wernecke, A. (2019). Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability. Nature, 566(7742), 58–64. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Favier, L., Durand, G., Cornford, S. L., Gudmundsson, G. H., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Zwinger, T., Payne, A. J., & Le Brocq, A. M. (2014). Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability. Nature Climate Change, 4(2), 117–121. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2094
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Feldmann, J., & Levermann, A. (2015). Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(46), 14191–14196. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1512482112
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gilford, D. M., Ashe, E. L., Kopp, R. M., DeConto, R. E., Pollard, D., & Rovere, A. (2020). Could the last interglacial constrain projections of future antarctic ice mass loss and sea-level rise? Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 125(10), e2019JF005418.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hein, A. S., Woodward, J., Marrero, S. M., Dunning, S. A., Steig, E. J., Freeman, S. P. H. T., Stuart, F. M., Winter, K., Westoby, M. J., & Sugden, D. E. (2016). Evidence for the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet divide for 1.4 million years. Nature Communications, 7(1), 10325. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10325
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holland, P. R., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dutrieux, P., Jenkins, A., & Steig, E. J. (2019). West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing. Nature Geoscience, 12(9), 718–724. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0420-9
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Howat, I. M., Porter, C., Smith, B. E., Noh, M. J., & Morin, P. (2019). The reference elevation model of Antarctica. Cryosphere, 13(2), 665–674.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jamieson, S. S. R., Sugden, D. E., & Hulton, N. R. J. (2010). The evolution of the subglacial landscape of Antarctica. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 293(1–2), 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2010.02.012
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jeong, S., Howat, I. M., & Bassis, J. N. (2016). Accelerated ice shelf rifting and retreat at Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(22), 11–720. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071360
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., & Medley, B. (2014). Marine ice sheet collapse potentially under way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica. Science, 344(6185), 735–738. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1249055
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lewis, A. R., Marchant, D. R., Ashworth, A. C., Hedenäs, L., Hemming, S. R., Johnson, J. V., Leng, M. J., Machlus, M. L., Newton, A. E., Raine, J. I., Willenbring, J. K., Williams, M., & Wolfe, A. P. (2008). Mid-Miocene cooling and the extinction of tundra in continental Antarctica. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(31), 10676–10680. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0802501105
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• MacAyeal, D. R., Scambos, T. A., Hulbe, C. L., & Fahnestock, M. A. (2003). Catastrophic ice-shelf break-up by an ice-shelf-fragment-capsize mechanism. Journal of Glaciology, 49(164), 22–36. https://doi.org/10.3189/172756503781830863
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• MacGregor, J. A., Catania, G. A., Markowski, M. S., & Andrews, A. G. (2012). Widespread rifting and retreat of ice-shelf margins in the eastern Amundsen Sea Embayment between 1972 and 2011. Journal of Glaciology, 58(209), 458–466. https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG11J262
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marchant, D. R., Denton, G. H., Bockheim, J. G., Wilson, S. C., & Kerr, A. R. (1994). Quaternary changes in level of the upper Taylor Glacier, Antarctica: Implications for paleoclimate and East Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics. Boreas, 23(1), 29–43. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1502-3885.1994.tb00583.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mercer, J. H. (1978). West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: A threat of disaster. Nature, 271(5643), 321–325. https://doi.org/10.1038/271321a0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Miles, B. W., Jordan, J. R., Stokes, C. R., Jamieson, S. S., Gudmundsson, G. H., & Jenkins, A. (2020). Recent acceleration of Denman Glacier (1972–2017), East Antarctica, driven by grounding line retreat and changes in ice tongue configuration. The Cryosphere Discussions, 1–26. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-162
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Milillo, P., Rignot, E., Rizzoli, P., Scheuchl, B., Mouginot, J., Bueso-Bello, J., & Prats-Iraola, P. (2019). Heterogeneous retreat and ice melt of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica. Science Advances, 5(1), p.eaau3433. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau3433
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Binder, T., Blankenship, D., Drews, R., Eagles, G., Eisen, O., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fretwell, P., & Goel, V. (2020). Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet. Nature Geoscience, 13(2), 132–137. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., & Scheuchl, B. (2014). Sustained increase in ice discharge from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, from 1973 to 2013. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(5), 1576–1584. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059069
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pattyn, F. (2018). The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling. Nature Communications, 9(1), 1–3. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05003-z
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pattyn, F., Favier, L., Sun, S., & Durand, G. (2017). Progress in numerical modelling of Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. Current Climate Change Reports, 3(3), 174–184. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0069-7
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pollard, D., DeConto, R. M., & Alley, R. B. (2015). Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 412, 112–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pritchard, H. D., Arthern, R. J., Vaughan, D. G., & Edwards, L. A. (2009). Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Nature, 461(7266), 971–975. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08471
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., & Scheuchl, B. (2014). Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(10), 3502–3509. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060140
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rignot, E., Vaughan, D. G., Schmeltz, M., Dupont, T., & MacAyeal, D. (2002). Acceleration of Pine island and Thwaites glaciers, west Antarctica. Annals of Glaciology, 34, 189–194. https://doi.org/10.3189/172756402781817950
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ritz, C., Edwards, T. L., Durand, G., Payne, A. J., Peyaud, V., & Hindmarsh, R. C. (2015). Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations. Nature, 528(7580), 115–118. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16147
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Scambos, T. A., & 22 others. (2017). How much, how fast?: A science review and outlook for research on the instability of Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier in the 21st century. Global Planetary Change, 153, 16–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.04.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Scambos, T. A., Hulbe, C., Fahnestock, M., & Bohlander, J. (2000). The link between climate warming and break-up of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula. Journal of Glaciology, 46(154), 516–530. https://doi.org/10.3189/172756500781833043
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Scherer, R. P., Aldahan, A., Tulaczyk, S., Possnert, G., Engelhardt, H., & Kamb, B. (1998). Pleistocene collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Science, 281(5373), 82–85. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.281.5373.82
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schoof, C. (2007). Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 112, F03S28. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shepherd, A., & 79 others. (2018). Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017. Nature, 558(7709), 219–222. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0171-6
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shepherd, A., Gilbert, L., Muir, A. S., Konrad, H., McMillan, M., Slater, T., Briggs, K. H., Sundal, A. V., Hogg, A. E., & Engdahl, M. E. (2019). Trends in Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation and mass. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(14), 8174–8183. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082182
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shepherd, A., Wingham, D. J., Mansley, J. A., & Corr, H. F. (2001). Inland thinning of pine island Glacier, West Antarctica. Science, 291(5505), 862–864. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.291.5505.862
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shepherd, A., Wingham, D., & Rignot, E. (2004). Warm ocean is eroding West Antarctic ice sheet. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(23), L23402. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021106
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smith, B., Fricker, H. A., Gardner, A. S., Medley, B., Nilsson, J., Paolo, F. S., Holschuh, N., Adusumilli, S., Brunt, K., Csatho, B., & Harbeck, K. (2020). Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes. Science, 368(6496), 1239–1242. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz5845
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Strugnell, J. M., Watts, P. C., Smith, P. J., & Allcock, A. L. (2012). Persistent genetic signatures of historic climatic events in an Antarctic octopus. Molecular Ecology, 21(11), 2775–2787. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-294X.2012.05572.x
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sugden, D. E., & Denton, G. H. (1993). The case for a stable East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 75A(4), 151–351. https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.1993.11880392
   Google Scholar
• Sugden, D. E., Hein, A. S., Woodward, J., Marrero, S. M., Rodés, A., Dunning, S. A., Stuart, F. M., Freeman, S. P. H. T., Winter, K., & Westoby, M. J. (2017). The million-year evolution of the glacial trimline in the southernmost Ellsworth Mountains, Antarctica. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 469, 42–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.04.006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thomas, R. H., & Bentley, C. R. (1978). A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Quaternary Research, 10(2), 150–170. https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weertman, J. (1974). Stability of the junction of an ice sheet and an ice shelf. Journal of Glaciology, 13(67), 3–11. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022143000023327
   Google Scholar
• Wingham, D. J., Wallis, D. W., & Shepherd, A. (2009). Spatial and temporal evolution of Pine Island Glacier thinning, 1995–2006. Geophysical Research Letters, 36(17). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039126
   Google Scholar