Climatic suitability predictions for the cultivation of macadamia and walnuts in existing land-use zones and forest management regimes under climate change scenarios: addressing food security in the mid-hills of Nepal

References

• Barrueto AK, Merz J, Hodel E, Eckert S. 2017. The suitability of Macadamia and Juglans for cultivation in Nepal: an assessment based on spatial probability modelling using climate scenarios and in situ data. Reg Environ Chang:1–13: DOI:10.1007/s10113-017-1225-2.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barrueto AK, Merz J, Kohler T, Hammer T. 2018. What Prompts Agricultural Innovation in Rural Nepal: a study using the example of Macadamia and Walnut Trees as novel cash crops. Agriculture. 8(21):1–16. DOI:10.3390/agriculture8020021.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baul TK, Ullah KMA, Tiwari KR, McDonald MA. 2013. People’s local knowledge of climate change in the middle-hills of Nepal. Indian J Tradit Know. 12(4):585–595 [accessed 2017 May 13]. http://nopr.niscair.res.in/handle/123456789/22177.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bhattarai M, Pant D, Molden D. 2002. Socio-Economics and Hydrological Impacts of Intersectoral and Interbasin Water Transfer Decisions: Melamchi Water Transfer Project in Nepal. Asian Irrigation in Transition- Responding to the Challenges ahead, Bangkok, Thailand, 22–23 April. [accessed 2017 May 30]. https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/38039.
   Google Scholar
• Bhattarai B, Ojha H, Humagain Y. 2005. Is Leasehold Forestry Really a Pro-poor Innovation? Evidences from Kavre District. Nepal J For Livelihood. 4(2):17–30. [accessed 2017 May 17]. http://www.forestaction.org/app/webroot/js/tinymce/editor/plugins/filemanager/files/3.%20Leasehold%20article%20Feb%2016.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Biggs EM, Tompkins EL, Allen J, Moon C, Allen R. 2013. Agricultural adaptation to climate change: observations from the Mid-Hills of Nepal. Clim Dev. 5(2):165–173. DOI:10.1080/17565529.2013.789791.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• [CBS] Central Bureau of Statistics. 2012. National population and housing census 2011: general and social characteristics tables. Kathmandu: Government of Nepal; p. 1–262. [accessed 2017 Jan 11]. https://unstats.un.org/unsD/demographic/sources/census/wphc/Nepal/Nepal-Census-2011-Vol1.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Chalise S, Naranpanawa A, Bandara JS, Sarker T. 2017. A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal. Econ Model. 62:43–50. DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2017.01.014.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dhakal B, Bigsby H, Cullen R. 2010. Forests for food security and livelihood sustainability: policy problems and opportunities for small farmers in Nepal. J Sustainable Agric. 35(1):86–115. DOI:10.1080/10440046.2011.530903.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• [GoN] Government of Nepal. 1999. Land-use zones. Kathmandu: Government of Nepal, Ministry of Land Reform and Management, Department of Survey.
   Google Scholar
• [GoN] Government of Nepal. 2002. Forest and vegetation types of Nepal. Tree improvement and silviculture component document series 105. Kathmandu: Government of Nepal, Ministry of Forests and Soil Conservation, Department of Forest.
   Google Scholar
• [GoN] Government of Nepal. 2015. Project Bank in the Forestry Sector of Nepal. Kathmandu: Government of Nepal, Ministry of Forest and Soil Conservation. Department of Forest. [accessed 2018 Jan 9]. http://mfsc.gov.np/noticefile/Forestry%20Sector%20Project%20Bank%20Nepal_1461667335.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Gurung GB, Bhandari D. 2009. Integrated approach to climate change adaptation. J For Livelihood. 8(1):90–98. [accessed 2016 Nov 29]. http://www.nepjol.info/index.php/JFL/article/view/1889.
   Google Scholar
• Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A. 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol. 25(15):1965–1978. DOI:10.1002/joc.1276.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• [HLPE] High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition. 2017. Sustainable forestry for food security and nutrition. Report 11:1–137. [accessed 2017 Sep 3]. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/hlpe/hlpe_documents/HLPE_Reports/HLPE-Report-11_EN.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• [IPCC] International Panel on Climate Change. 2014. Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Geneva: IPCC; p. 1–151. DOI:10.013/epic.45156.
   Google Scholar
• Locatelli B, Evans V, Wardell A, Andrade A, Vignola R. 2011. Forests and climate change in Latin America: linking adaptation and mitigation. Forests. 2(1):431–450. DOI:10.3390/f2010431.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lohani SN. 2007. Climate change in Nepal – shall we wait until bitter consequences? J Agric Environ. 8:38–45. DOI:10.3126/aej.v8i0.725.
   Google Scholar
• Malla G. 2008. Climate change and its impact on Nepalese agriculture. J Agric Environ. 9:62–71. DOI:10.3126/aej.v9i0.2119.
   Google Scholar
• Masui T, Matsumoto K, Hijioka Y, Kinoshita T, Nozawa T, Ishiwatari S, Kato E, Shukla PR, Yamagata Y, Kainuma M. 2011. An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm−2 radiative forcing. Clim Chang. 109:59–76. DOI:10.1007/s10584-011-0150-5.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• [MFSC] Ministry of Forest and Soil Conservation. 1995. Forest Act 2049 (1993) (official translation); p. 1–24. [accessed 2017 Apr 28]. http://www.forestrynepal.org/images/Forest_Act_of_Nepal_1993.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Nagendra H, Karna B, Karmacharya M. 2013. Examining institutional change: social conflict in Nepal’s leasehold forestry programme. Conser Soc. 3(1):72–91. [accessed 2017 Apr 29]. http://www.umich.edu/~ifri/Publications/cs-3-1_5_enagendraetal-R051-15.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Niraula RR. 2011. Does tenure matter? Assessment of change in forest cover in Nepal. Environ Clim Series 2011/2:1–40. [accessed 2017 Feb 10]. https://www.eda.admin.ch/content/dam/countries/countries-content/nepal/en/resource_en_208676.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Pandit R, Bevilacqua E. 2011. Forest users and environmental impacts of community forestry in the hills of Nepal. For Policy Econ. 13:345–352. DOI:10.1016/j.forpol.2011.03.009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pokharel BK, Byrne S. 2009. Climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in Nepal’s forest sector: how can rural communities benefit? NSCFP Discussion Paper 7:1–47. [accessed 2017 March 1]. http://rightsandresources.org/wp-content/exported-pdf/climatechangebookfinal.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Pokharel BK, Nurse M. 2004. Forests and people’s livelihood: benefiting the poor from community forestry. J For Livelihood 4(1). [accessed 2017 Sept 3]. http://forestaction.org/app/webroot/js/tinymce/editor/plugins/filemanager/files/4.%20Forests%20and%20People-paper_editedApril%202_Bharat_final.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Poudel S, Kotani K. 2013. Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across seasons and altitudes? Clim Chang. 116(2):327–355. DOI:10.1007/s10584-012-0491-8.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rangwala I, Miller JR. 2012. Climate change in mountains: a review of elevation-dependent warming and its possible causes. Clim Chang. 114(3):527–547. DOI:10.1007/s10584-012-0419-3.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ranjitkar S, Sujakhu N, Budhamagar K, Rimal S, Xu J, Merz J, Zomer RJ. 2015. Projected climate change impacts on climatic suitability and geographical distribution of banana and coffee plantations in Nepal. ICRAF Working Papers 204. DOI:10.5716/WP15294.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Ranjitkar S, Sujakhu NM, Merz J, Kindt R, Xu J, Matin MA, Ali M, Zomer RJ. 2016. Suitability analysis and projected climate change impact on banana and coffee production zones in Nepal. PLoS One. 11(9):1–18. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0163916.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Regmi BR, Thapa L, Suwal R, Khadka S, Sharma GB, Tamang BB. 2009. Agro-biodiversity management: an opportunity for mainstreaming community-based adaptation to climate change. J For Livelihood. 8(1):111–121. [accessed 2017 Feb 12]. http://www.nepjol.info/index.php/JFL/article/view/1892.
   Google Scholar
• Riahi K, Rao S, Krey V, Cho C, Chirkov V, Fischer G, Kindermann G, Nakicenovic N, Rafaj P. 2011. RCP 8.5-a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Clim Chang. 109:33–57. DOI:10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shrestha UB, Gautam S, Bawa KS. 2012. Widespread climate change in the Himalayas and associated changes in local ecosystems. PLoS One. 7(5): DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0036741.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sujakhu NM, Ranjitkar S, Niraula RR, Pokharel BK, Schmidt-Vogt D, Xu J. 2015. Farmers’ perceptions of and adaptations to changing climate in the Melamchi Valley of Nepal. Mt Res Dev. 36(1):15–30. DOI:10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-15-00032.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thoms CA, Karna BK, Karmacharya MB. 2006. Limitations of leasehold forestry for poverty alleviation in Nepal. Soc Nat Resour. 19:931–938. DOI:10.1080/08941920600902179.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thomson AM, Calvin kV, Smith SJ, Kyle GP, Volke A, Patel P, Delgado-Arias S, Bond-Lamberty B, Wise MA, Clarke LE, et al. 2011. RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim Chang. 109:77–94. DOI:10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tiwari KR, Rayamajhi S, Pokharel RK, Balla MK. 2014. Determinants of the climate change adaptation in rural farming in Nepal Himalaya. Int J Multidiscip Curr Res 2. [accessed 2016 Oct 12]. http://ijmcr.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Paper9234-240.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque JF. 2011. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang. 109:5–31. DOI:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zomer RJ, Trabucco A, Wang M, Lang R, Chen H, Metzger MJ, Smajgl A, Beckschäfer P, Xu J. 2014. Environmental stratification to model climate change impacts on biodiversity and rubber production in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China. Biol Conserv. 170:264–273. DOI:10.1016/j.biocon.2013.11.028.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zomer RJ, Xu J, Wang M, Trabucco A, Li Z. 2015. Projected impact of climate change on the effectiveness of the existing protected area network for biodiversity conservation within Yunnan Province, China. Biol Conserv. 184:335–345. DOI:10.1016/j.biocon.2015.01.031.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar