Modeling past and future variation of glaciers in the Dongkemadi Ice Field on central Tibetan Plateau from 1989 to 2050

References

• Bahr, D. B., W. T. Pfeffer, and G. Kaser. 2015. A review of volume-area scaling of glaciers. Reviews of Geophysics 53 (1):95–140. doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000470.
   Google Scholar
• Bliss, A., R. Hock, and V. Radić. 2014. Global response of glacier runoff to twenty-first century climate change. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 119 (4):2013J–2931J.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bolch, T., A. Kulkarni, A. Kaab, C. Huggel, F. Paul, J. G. Cogley, H. Frey, J. S. Kargel, K. Fujita, M. Scheel, et al. 2012. The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers. Science 336 (6079):310–14. doi:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1215828.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bonanno, R., C. Ronchi, B. Cagnazzi, and A. Provenzale. 2014. Glacier response to current climate change and future scenarios in the northwestern Italian Alps. Regional Environmental Change 14 (2):633–43. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0523-6.
   Google Scholar
• Chen, A., N. Wang, Z. Li, Y. Wu, W. Zhang, and Z. Guo. 2017. Region-wide glacier mass budgets for the Tanggula Mountains between ~1969 and ~2015 derived from remote sensing data. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 49 (4):551–68. doi:https://doi.org/10.1657/AAAR0016-065.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Forsythe, N., H. J. Fowler, X. Li, S. Blenkinsop, and D. Pritchard. 2017. Karakoram temperature and glacial melt driven by regional atmospheric circulation variability. Nature Climate Change 7 (9):664–70. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3361.
   Google Scholar
• Fujita, K. 2008. Effect of precipitation seasonality on climatic sensitivity of glacier mass balance. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 276 (1–2):14–19. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2008.08.028.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fujita, K., and T. Nuimura. 2011. Spatially heterogeneous wastage of Himalayan glaciers. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 108 (34):14011–14. doi:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1106242108.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fujita, K., T. Ohta, and Y. Ageta. 2007. Characteristics and climatic sensitivities of runoff from a cold-type glacier on the Tibetan Plateau. Hydrological Processes 21 (21):2882–91. doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/()1099-1085.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fujita, K., Y. Ageta, P. Jianchen, and Y. Tandong. 2000. Mass balance of Xiao Dongkemadi glacier on the central Tibetan Plateau from 1989 to 1995. Annals of Glaciology 31 (1):159–63. doi:https://doi.org/10.3189/172756400781820075.
   Google Scholar
• Gabbi, J., M. Carenzo, F. Pellicciotti, A. Bauder, and M. Funk. 2014. A comparison of empirical and physically based glacier surface melt models for long-term simulations of glacier response. Journal of Glaciology 60 (224):1140–54. doi:https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG14J011.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gao, H., X. He, B. Ye, and J. Pu. 2012. Modeling the runoff and glacier mass balance in a small watershed on the Central Tibetan Plateau, China, from 1955 to 2008. Hydrological Processes 26 (11):1593–603. doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.v26.11.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gao, X., Y. Shi, D. Zhang, and F. Giorgi. 2012. Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model. Chinese Science Bulletin 57 (10):1188–95. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4935-8.
   Google Scholar
• Gardelle, J., E. Berthier, and Y. Arnaud. 2012. Slight mass gain of Karakoram glaciers in the early twenty-first century. Nature Geoscience 5 (5):322–25. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1450.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Guo, W., S. Liu, J. Xu, L. Wu, D. Shangguan, X. Yao, J. Wei, W. Bao, P. Yu, Q. Liu, et al. 2015. The second Chinese glacier inventory: Data, methods and results. Journal of Glaciology 61 (226):357–72. doi:https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG14J209.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hock, R. 1999. A distributed temperature-index ice- and snowmelt model including potential direct solar radiation. Journal of Glaciology 45 (149):101–11. doi:https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000003087.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hock, R. 2003. Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas. Journal of Hydrology 282 (1–4):104–15. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00257-9.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hock, R., J. K. Hutchings, and M. Lehning. 2017. Grand challenges in cryospheric sciences: Toward better predictability of glaciers, snow and sea ice. Frontiers in Earth Science 5:64. doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00064.
   Google Scholar
• Huss, M., A. Bauder, M. Funk, and R. Hock. 2008. Determination of the seasonal mass balance of four Alpine glaciers since 1865. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 113 (F1):F1015. doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JF000803.
   Google Scholar
• Immerzeel, W. W., L. P. van Beek, and M. F. Bierkens. 2010. Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Science 328 (5984):1382–85. doi:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1183188.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2013. Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
   Google Scholar
• Jacob, T., J. Wahr, W. T. Pfeffer, and S. Swenson. 2012. Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise. Nature 482 (7386):514–18. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10847.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kääb, A., E. Berthier, C. Nuth, J. Gardelle, and Y. Arnaud. 2012. Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas. Nature 488 (7412):495–98. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11324.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kang, E., G. Cheng, Y. Lan, and H. Jin. 1999. A model for simulating the response of runoff from the mountainous watersheds of inland river basins in the arid area of northwest China to climatic changes. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences 42 (1 Supplement):52–63. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02878853.
   Google Scholar
• Ke, L., X. Ding, W. Li, and B. Qiu. 2017. Remote sensing of glacier change in the central Qinghai-Tibet plateau and the relationship with changing climate. Remote Sensing 9 (2):114. doi:https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9020114.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kuang, X., and J. J. Jiao. 2016. Review on climate change on the Tibetan Plateau during the last half century. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 121 (8):3979–4007.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Li, L., M. Shen, Y. Hou, C. Xu, A. F. Lutz, J. Chen, S. K. Jain, J. Li, and H. Chen. 2019. Twenty-first-century glacio-hydrological changes in the Himalayan headwater Beas River basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23 (3):1483–503. doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1483-2019.
   Google Scholar
• Li, Y., L. Tian, Y. Yi, J. C. Moore, S. Sun, and L. Zhao. 2017. Simulating the evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the Central Tibetan Plateau to 2050. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 49 (1):1–12. doi:https://doi.org/10.1657/AAAR0016-008.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Li, Z., Q. Xing, S. Liu, J. Zhou, and L. Huang. 2012. Monitoring thickness and volume changes of the Dongkemadi ice field on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (1969–2000) using shuttle radar topography mission and map data. International Journal of Digital Earth 5 (6):516–32. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2011.594099.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Li, Z., Y. He, T. Pu, W. Jia, X. He, H. Pang, N. Zhang, Q. Liu, S. Wang, and G. Zhu. 2010. Changes of climate, glaciers and runoff in China’s monsoonal temperate glacier region during the last several decades. Quaternary International 218 (1–2):13–28. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2009.05.010.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liang, L., L. Cuo, and Q. Liu. 2019. Mass balance variation and associative climate drivers for the Dongkemadi Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 124 (20):10814–25. doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030615.
   Google Scholar
• Litt, M., J. Shea, P. Wagnon, J. Steiner, I. Koch, E. Stigter, and W. Immerzeel. 2019. Glacier ablation and temperature indexed melt models in the Nepalese Himalaya. Scientific Reports 9 (1). doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-41657-5.
   Google Scholar
• Liu, G., H. Guo, H. Yue, Z. Perski, S. Yan, R. Song, J. Fan, and Z. Ruan. 2015. Modified four-pass differential SAR interferometry for estimating mountain glacier surface velocity fields. Remote Sensing Letters 7 (1):1–10. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2015.1094588.
   Google Scholar
• Liu, S., Y. Zhang, Y. Zhang, and Y. Ding. 2009. Estimation of glacier runoff and future trends in the Yangtze River source region, China. Journal of Glaciology 55 (190):353–62. doi:https://doi.org/10.3189/002214309788608778.
   Google Scholar
• Marzeion, B., A. H. Jarosch, and M. Hofer. 2012. Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers. The Cryosphere 6 (6):1295–322. doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mölg, T., F. Maussion, and D. Scherer. 2014. Mid-latitude westerlies as a driver of glacier variability in monsoonal High Asia. Nature Climate Change 4 (1):68–73. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2055.
   Google Scholar
• Oerlemans, J. 2005. Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records. Science 308 (5722):675–77. doi:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1107046.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Oerlemans, J., and J. P. F. Fortuin. 1992. Sensitivity of glaciers and small ice caps to greenhouse warming. Science 258 (5079):115–17. doi:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.258.5079.115.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ohmura, A. 2001. Physical basis for the temperature-based melt-index method. Journal of Applied Meteorology 40 (4):753–61. doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<0753:PBFTTB>2.0.CO;2.
   Google Scholar
• Pan, B., B. Cao, J. Wang, G. Zhang, C. Zhang, Z. Hu, and B. Huang. 2012. Glacier variations in response to climate change from 1972 to 2007 in the western Lenglongling mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Glaciology 58 (211):879–88. doi:https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG12J032.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pellicciotti, F., B. Brock, U. Strasser, P. Burlando, M. Funk, and J. Corripio. 2005. An enhanced temperature-index glacier melt model including the shortwave radiation balance: Development and testing for Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland. Journal of Glaciology 51 (175):573–87. doi:https://doi.org/10.3189/172756505781829124.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pu, J., T. Yao, M. Yang, L. Tian, N. Wang, Y. Ageta, and K. Fujita. 2008. Rapid decrease of mass balance observed in the Xiao (Lesser) Dongkemadi Glacier, in the central Tibetan Plateau. Hydrological Processes 22 (16):2953–58. doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.v22:16.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Radić, V., A. Bliss, A. C. Beedlow, R. Hock, E. Miles, and J. G. Cogley. 2014. Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models. Climate Dynamics 42 (1–2):37–58. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1719-7.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Radić, V., and R. Hock. 2010. Regional and global volumes of glaciers derived from statistical upscaling of glacier inventory data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 115 (F1):F1010. doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JF001373.
   Google Scholar
• Radić, V., R. Hock, and J. Oerlemans. 2008. Analysis of scaling methods in deriving future volume evolutions of valley glaciers. Journal of Glaciology 54 (187):601–12. doi:https://doi.org/10.3189/002214308786570809.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reijmer, C. H., and R. Hock. 2008. Internal accumulation on Storglaciären, Sweden, in a multi-layer snow model coupled to a distributed energy- and mass-balance model. Journal of Glaciology 54 (184):61–72. doi:https://doi.org/10.3189/002214308784409161.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Réveillet, M., D. Six, C. Vincent, A. Rabatel, M. Dumont, M. Lafaysse, S. Morin, V. Vionnet, and M. Litt. 2018. Relative performance of empirical and physical models in assessing the seasonal and annual glacier surface mass balance of Saint-Sorlin Glacier (French Alps). The Cryosphere 12 (4):1367–86. doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1367-2018.
   Google Scholar
• Rupper, S., and G. Roe. 2008. Glacier changes and regional climate: A mass and energy balance approach. Journal of Climate 21 (20):5384–401. doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2219.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Salathé, E. P. 2005. Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modelling. International Journal of Climatology 25 (4):419–36. doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.v25:4.
   Google Scholar
• Scherler, D., B. Bookhagen, and M. R. Strecker. 2011. Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover. Nature Geoscience 4 (3):156–59. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1068.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shangguan, D., S. Liu, Y. Ding, Y. Zhang, D. Erji, and Z. Wu. 2008. Thinning and retreat of Xiao Dongkemadi glacier, Tibetan Plateau, since 1993. Journal of Glaciology 54 (188):949–51. doi:https://doi.org/10.3189/002214308787780003.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shi, P., K. Duan, H. Liu, J. Yang, X. Zhang, and J. Sun. 2016. Response of Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to the current climate change and future scenarios by 2050. Journal of Mountain Science 13 (1):13–28. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-015-3609-4.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shi, Y., and S. Liu. 2000. Estimation on the response of glaciers in China to the global warming in the 21st century. Chinese Science Bulletin 45 (7):668–72. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02886048.
   Google Scholar
• Tian, H., T. Yang, and Q. Liu. 2014. Climate change and glacier area shrinkage in the Qilian mountains, China, from 1956 to 2010. Annals of Glaciology 55 (66):187–97. doi:https://doi.org/10.3189/2014AoG66A045.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang, L., Z. Li, F. Wang, H. Li, and P. Wang. 2014. Glacier changes from 1964 to 2004 in the Jinghe River basin, Tien Shan. Cold Regions Science and Technology 102:78–83. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2014.02.006.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang, S., T. Yao, L. Tian, and P. U. Jianchen. 2017. Glacier mass variation and its effect on surface runoff in the Beida River catchment during 1957–2013. Journal of Glaciology 63 (239):523–34. doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2017.13.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang, Y., S. Hou, S. Hong, S. D. Hur, and Y. Liu. 2008. Glacier extent and volume change (1966~2000) on the Su-lo Mountain in northeastern Tibetan Plateau, China. Journal of Mountain Science 5 (4):299–309. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-008-0224-7.
   Google Scholar
• Wu, S., Z. Yao, H. Huang, Z. Liu, and Y. Chen. 2013. Glacier retreat and its effect on stream flow in the source region of the Yangtze River. Journal of Geographical Sciences 23 (5):849–59. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-013-1048-0.
   Google Scholar
• Wu, X., N. Wang, A. Lu, J. Pu, Z. Guo, and H. Zhang. 2015. Variations in albedo on Dongkemadi Glacier in Tanggula range on the Tibetan Plateau during 2002–2012 and its linkage with mass balance. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 47 (2):281–92. doi:https://doi.org/10.1657/AAAR00C-13-307.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wu, Z., S. Liu, H. Zhang, Xi. He, J. Chen, and K. Yao. 2018. Full-Stokes modeling of a polar continental glacier: the dynamic characteristics response of the XD Glacier to ice thickness. Acta Mechanica 229 (6):2393–411. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00707-018-2112-8.
   Google Scholar
• Yang, M., X. Wang, G. Pang, G. Wan, and Z. Liu. 2019. The Tibetan Plateau cryosphere: Observations and model simulations for current status and recent changes. Earth-Science Reviews 190:353–69. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2018.12.018.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yang, W., X. Guo, T. Yao, M. Zhu, and Y. Wang. 2016. Recent accelerating mass loss of southeast Tibetan glaciers and the relationship with changes in macroscale atmospheric circulations. Climate Dynamics 47 (3–4):805–15. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2872-y.
   Google Scholar
• Yang, Y., Z. Li, L. Huang, B. Tian, and Q. Chen. 2016. Extraction of glacier outlines and water-eroded stripes using high-resolution SAR imagery. International Journal of Remote Sensing 37 (5):1016–34. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2016.1145365.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yao, T., L. Thompson, W. Yang, W. Yu, Y. Gao, X. Guo, X. Yang, K. Duan, H. Zhao, B. Xu, et al. 2012. Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings. Nature Climate Change 2 (9):663–67. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1580.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yao, T., Y. Wang, S. Liu, J. Pu, Y. Shen, and A. Lu. 2004. Recent glacial retreat in High Asia in China and its impact on water resource in Northwest China. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences 47 (12):1065–75. doi:https://doi.org/10.1360/03yd0256.
   Google Scholar
• Zhang, D., J. Huang, X. Guan, B. Chen, and L. Zhang. 2013. Long-term trends of precipitable water and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau derived from satellite and surface measurements. Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer 122:64–71. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jqsrt.2012.11.028.
   Google Scholar
• Zhang, J., X. He, B. Ye, and J. Wu. 2013. Recent variation of mass balance of the Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier in the Tanggula range and its influencing factors. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 35 (2):263–71.
   Google Scholar
• Zhang, Y., K. Fujita, Y. Ageta, M. Nakawo, T. Yao, and J. Pu. 1998. The response of glacier ELA to climate fluctuations on High-Asia. Bulletin of Glacier Research 16:1–11.
   Google Scholar
• Zhang, Z., L. Jiang, L. Liu, Y. Sun, and H. Wang. 2018. Annual glacier-wide mass balance (2000–2016) of the interior Tibetan Plateau reconstructed from MODIS albedo products. Remote Sensing 10 (7):1031. doi:https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10071031.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhao, H., W. Yang, T. Yao, L. Tian, and B. Xu. 2016. Dramatic mass loss in extreme high-elevation areas of a western Himalayan glacier: Observations and modeling. Scientific Reports 6 (30706):30706. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30706.
   Google Scholar
• Zhao, L., R. Ding, and J. C. Moore. 2014. Glacier volume and area change by 2050 in high mountain Asia. Global and Planetary Change 122:197–207. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.006.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhao, L., Y. Yang, W. Cheng, D. Ji, and J. C. Moore. 2017. Glacier evolution in high-mountain Asia under stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection geoengineering. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 17 (11):6547–64. doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6547-2017.
   Google Scholar