229
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Selected Papers from the Third Forum on Risk Management and Financial Statistics. Guest Editor: Zhenghui Li, Guangzhou University

Analysis of the Impact of China’s GDP Data Revision on Monetary Policy from the Perspective of Uncertainty

, &

References

  • Ashley, J., R. Driver, and S. Hayes. 2005. Dealing with data uncertainty. Social Science Electronic Publishing 43616261888811 (1):97.
  • Bernanke, B., and J. Boivin. 2003. Monetary policy in a data-rich environment. Journal of Monetary Economics 50 (50):525–46. doi:10.1016/S0304-3932(03)00024-2.
  • Bernanke, B. S. 2013. The federal reserve and the financial crisis. Princeton University Press. doi:10.1515/9781400847167.
  • Bernhardsen, T., Ø. Eitrheim, A. S. Jore, and Ø. Røisland. 2005. Real-time data for Norway: challenges for monetary policy. North American Journal of Economics & Finance 16 (3):333–349. doi:10.1016/j.najef.2005.05.007.
  • Beveridge, S., and C. R. Nelson. 1981. A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the ‘business cycle’. Journal of Monetary Economics 7 (2):0–174. doi:10.1016/0304-3932(81)90040-4.
  • Bian, Z. 2006. A review of empirical issues of Taylor rule and its applicability in china. Journal of Financial Research 51 (8):56–69.
  • Cayen. J. P., and S. van Norden. 2005. The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 16 (3):373–393. doi:10.1016/j.najef.2005.06.003.
  • Chen, C. L., and T. G. Zheng. 2018. Data revision, real-time estimation and the identification of time-varying parameters monetary policy. Statistical Research 8:25–40.
  • Chen, J., and X. Y. Sun. 2010. Analysis of rationality of GDP revision based on deflator index. Statistics & Decision 11:7–8.
  • Clarida, R., J. Galı́, and M. Gertler. 1998. Monetary policy rules in practice: Some international evidence. European Economic Review 42 (6):1033–67. doi:10.1016/S0014-2921(98)00016-6.
  • Clarida, R., J. Galı́, and M. Gertler. 2000. Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 115 (1):147–80. doi:10.1162/003355300554692.
  • Clark, P. K. 1987. The cyclical component of U.S. economic activity. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 102(4):797–814. doi:10.2307/1884282.
  • Clark, T., . E., and M. W. Mccracken. 2009. Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 27 (4):441–54. doi:10.1198/jbes.2009.07204.
  • Coenen, G., A. Levin, and V. Wieland. 2005. Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy. European Economic Review 49 (4):975–1006. doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2003.08.005.
  • Côté, D., J. Kuszczak, J. P. Lam, Y. Liu, and P. St-Amant. 2004. The performance and robustness of simple monetary policy rules in models of the Canadian economy. Canadian Journal of Economics 37 (4):798–998. doi:10.1111/j.0008-4085.2004.00256.x.
  • Croushore, D. 2011. Frontiers of real-time data analysis. Journal of Economic Literature 49 (1):72–100. doi:10.2139/ssrn.1118356.
  • Cuche, C. N., H. Pamela, and Z. Attilio. 2008. Swiss GDP revisions: a monetary policy perspective. The Annual Meeting of the Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics 6:1–31. doi:10.1787/jbcma-v2008-art10-en.
  • Cunningham, A. 2007. Extracting a better signal from uncertain data. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 47 (3):364–375.
  • Cunningham, A., J. Eklund, and J. Chris. 2012. A state space approach to extracting the signal from uncertain data. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 30 (2):173–80. doi:10.1198/jbes.2009.08171.
  • Feng, S. 2006. The impact of GDP revision on some economic indicators in China. China Finance 6:24–27.
  • Garratt, A., J. Mitchell, and V. Shaun. 2009. Measuring output gap uncertainty. CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7742. doi:10.1002/j.1538-7305.1971.tb01874.x.
  • Gerdesmeier, D., and B. Roffia. 2005. The relevance of real-time data in estimating reaction functions for the euro area. North American Journal of Economics & Finance 16 (3):293–307. doi:10.1016/j.najef.2005.04.001.
  • Hansen, L. P. 2014. Nobel lecture: Uncertainty outside and inside economic models. Journal of Political Economy 122 (5):945–87. doi:10.1086/678456.
  • Hao, X. H., Z. X. Liu, and J. Q. Tian. 2014. Optimal interest rate rule under model uncertainty. Systems Engineering 32 (08):60–66.
  • Harvey, A. C., and A. Jaeger. 1993. Detrending, stylized facts and the business cycle. Journal of Applied Econometrics 8 (3):231–247. doi:10.1002/(ISSN)1099-1255.
  • Hodrick, R. J., and E. C. Prescott. 1997. Postwar U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 29 (1):1–16. doi:10.2307/2953682.
  • Huan, Z. J. 2016. The study of monetary policy rule based on real time data: Case of Taylor rule. Financial Development Review 1:74–105.
  • Ince, O., and D. H. Papell. 2013. The (un)reliability of real-time output gap estimates with revised data. Economic Modelling 33:713–21. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2013.05.023.
  • Jarkko, J., and T. Yates. 2005. Monetary policy and data uncertainty. SSRN Electronic Journal 281:1–19. doi:10.2139/ssrn.872692.
  • Kent, C. 2017. Uncertainty and monetary policy. Australian Economic Review 50 (1):85–88. doi:10.1111/aere.v50.1.
  • Liu, S. Y., and Y. L. Liu. 2010. Taylor rule and its adaptability to China. Contemporary Economic Research 182 (10):48–53.
  • Marcellino, M. G., and A. Musso. 2011. The reliability of real time estimates of the euro area output gap. Economic Modelling 28 (4):1842–1856. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2011.03.014.
  • Molodtsova, T., A. Nikolsko, and D. H. Papell. 2008. Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate. Social Science Electronic Publishing 55 (7):S63–S79. doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.07.003.
  • Nelson, E., and K. Nikolov. 2003. UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: The role of output gap mismeasurement. Journal of Economics and Business 55 (4):353–70. doi:10.1016/S0148-6195(03)00030-4.
  • Orphanides, A. 2001. Monetary policy rules based on real-time data. American Economic Review 91 (4):964–85. doi:10.1257/aer.91.4.964.
  • Orphanides, A. 2003. The quest for prosperity without inflation. Journal of Monetary Economics 50 (3):633–63. doi:10.1016/S0304-3932(03)00028-X.
  • Orphanides, A., and S. van Norden. 2005. The reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 37 (3):583–601. doi:10.1353/mcb.2005.0033.
  • Orphanides, A., and S. V. Norden. 2002. The unreliability of output-gap estimates in real time. Review of Economics and Statistics 84 (4):569–83. doi:10.30541/v56i3pp.193-219.
  • Pruitt, S. 2012. Uncertainty over models and data: The rise and fall of American inflation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 44 (2–3):341–65. doi:10.2139/ssrn.1333328.
  • Reifschneider, D., and P. Tulip. 2017. Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook using historical forecasting errors: The federal reserve’s approach. Social Science Electronic Publishing. doi:10.17016/FEDS.2017.020.
  • Sheila, C. D. 2004. Uncertainty and monetary policy. Oxford Economic Papers 56 (3):539–61. doi:10.1093/oep/gpf052.
  • Shen, L. S., and H. G. Wang. 2008. How does GDP revision affect its deflator? Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics 5:155–60.
  • Smets, F., and R. Wouters. 2003. An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area. Journal of the European Economic Association 1 (5):1293–309. doi:10.2139/ssrn.1691984.
  • Taylor, J. B. 1993. Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39 (1):195–214. doi:10.1016/0167-2231(93)90009-L.
  • Tinbergen, J. 1952. Four alternative policies to restore balance of payments equilibrium. Econometrica 20 (3):372–390. doi:10.2307/1907410.
  • Tkacz, G. 2010. An uncertain past: Data revisions and monetary policy in Canada. Bank of Canada Review 41–51. http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/tkacz.pdf.
  • Wang, J. G. 2006. An empirical study of Taylor rule and China’s monetary policy response function. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics 23 (1):43–49.
  • Watson, M. W. 1986. Univariate de-trending methods with stochastic trends. Journal of Monetary Economics 18 (1):49–75. doi:10.1016/0304-3932(86)90054-1.
  • Wu, G., H. Zhang, and P. Chen. 2015. Fitting and forecasting of nonlinear Taylor rule in china. China Finance Review International 5 (4):402–20. doi:10.1108/CFRI-11-2014-0097.
  • Xie, P. A., and L. Xiong. 2002. Taylor rule and its empirical test in China’s monetary policy. Economic Research Journal 3:3–12.
  • Xu, X. C. 2006. The impact of GDP revision on several issues. Economic Affairs 4:16–23.
  • Ye, M., and X. T. Hu. 2015. A test of and comparison among interest rate rule, monetary supply rule and loan rule in China’s Monetary Policy. Academic Research 3:85–94.
  • Zhang, L. A., and W. Ding. 2006. The impact of economic data revising on the relationship between taxes and economy. Statistical Research 7:22–27.
  • Zheng, T. G., and J. Q. Liu. 2010. Taylor rule with regime switching and its application to China’s monetary policy. Economic Research Journal 45 (3):40–52.
  • Zheng, T. G., and M. H. Guo. 2011. The effects of GDP revision on business cycle dating. Statistical Research 8:14–20.
  • Zheng, T. G., and X. Wang. 2010. Real time estimates of Chinese output gap and reliability analysis. Economic Research Journal 10:129–42.
  • Zheng, T. G., and X. Wang. 2011. Real-time analysis of Taylor rule and its applicability in the Chinese monetary policy. Journal of Financial Research 8:31–46.
  • Zhuang, Z. G., X. Y. Cui, and X. Zhao. 2016. Uncertainty, macroeconomic fluctuation and the choice of monetary policy rules in china. Management World 11:20–31.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.