References
- Aguiar, M., and G. Gopinath. 2007. Emerging market business cycles: The cycle is the trend. Journal of Political Economy 115 (1):69–102. doi:https://doi.org/10.1086/511283.
- Akinci, O. 2011. A note on the estimation of the atemporal elasticity of substitution between tradable and nontradable goods. Manuscript. Columbia University.
- Alberola-Ila, E., Y. Arslan, G. Cheng, and R. Moessner. 2020. The fiscal response to the Covid-19 crisis in advanced and emerging market economies (No. 23). Bank for International Settlements.
- Auerbach, A. J., and Y. Gorodnichenko. 2016. Effects of fiscal shocks in a globalized world. IMF Economic Review 64 (1):177–215. doi:https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2015.15.
- Auernheimer, L., and R. Garcia-Saltos. 2000. International debt and the price of domestic assets. IMF Working Paper wp/00/177, October.
- Balassa, B. 1964. The purchasing-power parity doctrine: A reappraisal. Journal of Political Economy 72 (6):584–96. doi:https://doi.org/10.1086/258965.
- Baldi, A. L., and N. Mulder. 2004. The impact of exchange rate regimes on real exchange rates in South America, 1990-2002. OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 396, Paris.
- Baxter, M., and R. G. King. 1993. Fiscal policy in general equilibrium. The American Economic Review 83 (3): 315–34.
- Bello, O., R. Heresi, and R. Pineda Salazar. 2010. El tipo de cambio real de equilibrio: Un estudio para 17 países de América Latina. CEPAL. http://hdl.handle.net/11362/5467.
- Benetrix, A. S., and P. R. Lane. 2009. The impact of fiscal shocks on the Irish economy. The Economic and Social Review 40 (4):407.
- Bergoeing, R., P. J. Kehoe, T. J. Kehoe, and R. Soto. 2002. A decade lost and found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s. Review of Economic Dynamics 5 (1):166–205. doi:https://doi.org/10.1006/redy.2001.0150.
- Bianchi, J. 2011. Overborrowing and systemic externalities in the business cycle. American Economic Review 101 (7):3400–26. doi:https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.7.3400.
- Bils, M., and P. J. Klenow. 2004. Some evidence on the importance of sticky prices. Journal of Political Economy 112 (5):947–85. doi:https://doi.org/10.1086/422559.
- Boehm, C. E. 2020. Government consumption and investment: Does the composition of purchases affect the multiplier? Journal of Monetary Economics 115:80–93. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.05.003.
- Born, B., F. D’Ascanio, G. Müller, and J. Pfeifer. 2019. The worst of both worlds: Fiscal policy and fixed exchange rates (No. 7922). CESifo Working Paper.
- Born, B., F. Juessen, and G. J. Müller. 2013. Exchange rate regimes and fiscal multipliers. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 37 (2):446–65. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2012.09.014.
- Boz, E., C. Daude, and C. B. Durdu. 2008. Emerging market business cycles revisited: Learning about the trend. FRB International Finance Discussion Paper, (927).
- Calvo, G. A. 1983. Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics 12 (3):383–98. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(83)90060-0.
- Capello, M., and N. Grión. 2003. Reformas Impositivas y Estabilización en un Modelo de Ciclos Reales, 2003. Mendoza: Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
- Carabenciov, I., C. Freedman, M. R. Garcia-Saltos, M. D. Laxton, M. O. Kamenik, and M. P. Manchev. 2013. GPM6: The global projection model with 6 regions. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
- Carrera, J. E., and R. Restout. 2008. Long run determinants of real exchange rates in Latin America. Working paper GATE 08–11 (2008).
- Cavallo, A. 2013. Online and official price indexes: Measuring Argentina’s inflation. Journal of Monetary Economics 60 (2):152–65. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.10.002.
- Chari, V. V., P. J. Kehoe, and E. R. McGrattan. 2002. Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates? The Review of Economic Studies 69 (3):533–63. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00216.
- Chen, Y., and D. Liu. 2018. Dissecting real exchange rate fluctuations in China. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 54 (2):288–306. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2017.1342621.
- Corsetti, G., L. Dedola, and S. Leduc. 2008. International risk sharing and the transmission of productivity shocks. The Review of Economic Studies 75 (2):443–73. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00475.x.
- Dawkins, C., T. N. Srinivasan, and J. Whalley. 2001. Calibration. In Handbook of econometrics, ed. J. Heckman, and E. Leamer, Vol. 5, 3653–703. Elsevier.
- Della Paolera, G., and A. M. Taylor, Eds. 2003. A new economic history of Argentina. Vol. 1. New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Eaton, J., & Gersovitz, M. (1981). Debt with potential repudiation: Theoretical and empirical analysis. The Review of Economic Studies, 48(2), 289–309.
- Edwards, S. 1988. Real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior: Theory and evidence from developing countries (No. w2721). National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Edwards, S. 2010a. The international transmission of interest rate shocks: The Federal Reserve and emerging markets in Latin America and Asia. Journal of International Money and Finance 29 (4):685–703. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.01.003.
- Edwards, S. 2010b. Left behind: Latin America and the false promise of populism. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
- Edwards, S. 2011. Exchange-rate policies in emerging countries: Eleven empirical regularities from Latin America and East Asia. Open Economies Review 22 (4):533–63. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-011-9206-4.
- Enders, Z., G. J. Müller, and A. Scholl. 2011. How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States. Journal of International Economics 83 (1):53–69. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2010.08.005.
- Erceg, C. J., L. Guerrieri, and C. Gust. 2005. Expansionary fiscal shocks and the US trade deficit. International Finance 8 (3):363–97. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2005.00164.x.
- Faria-e-castro, M. 2021. Fiscal policy during a pandemic. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 125:104088. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104088.
- Fernández-Villaverde, J., Rubio-Ramírez, J. F. Rubio-Ramírez, T. Cogley, and F. Schorfheide. 2007. How structural are structural parameters? NBER Macroeconomics Annual 22:83–167. doi:https://doi.org/10.1086/Ma.22.25554965.
- Ferrara, L., L. Metelli, F. Natoli, and D. Siena. 2021. Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate, and inflation. CAMA Working Paper 38/2021.
- Forni, M., and L. Gambetti. 2016. Government spending shocks in open economy VARs. Journal of International Economics 99:68–84. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.11.010.
- Galstyan, V., and P. R. Lane. 2009. The composition of government spending and the real exchange rate. Journal of Money Credit and Banking 41 (6):1233–49. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00254.x.
- García-Cicco, J., R. Pancrazi, and M. Uribe. 2010. Real business cycles in emerging countries? American Economic Review 100 (5):2510–31. doi:https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.5.2510.
- Greenwood, J., Z. Hercowitz, and G. W. Huffman. 1988. Investment, capacity utilization, and the real business cycle. The American Economic Review 78 (3): 402–17.
- Gregory, A. W., and G. W. Smith. 1991. Calibration as testing: Inference in simulated macroeconomic models. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 9 (3):297–303.
- Guerrieri, V., G. Lorenzoni, L. Straub, and I. Werning. 2020. Macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: Can negative supply shocks cause demand shortages? (No. w26918). National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Gust, C., S. Leduc, and N. Sheets. 2009. The adjustment of global external balances: Does partial exchange-rate pass-through to trade prices matter? Journal of International Economics 79 (2):173–85. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.08.002.
- Hansen, B. E. 1992. Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 10 (3):321–335. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/1391545.
- Hofmann, B., and B. Bogdanova. 2012. Taylor rules and monetary policy: A global ‘Great Deviation’? BIS Quarterly Review September.
- Ilzetzki, E., E. G. Mendoza, and C. A. Végh. 2013. How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics 60 (2):239–54. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.10.011.
- Ilzetzki, E., and K. Jin. 2021. The puzzling change in the international transmission of US macroeconomic policy shocks. Journal of International Economics 130:103444. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103444.
- Jorgenson, D. W. 1984. Econometric methods for applied general equilibrium analysis. In Applied General Equilibrium Analysis, ed. H. Scarf, and J. Shoven, 139–203. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Justiniano, A., and B. Preston. 2010. Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open‐economy model. Journal of Applied Econometrics 25 (1):93–128. doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1153.
- Kappeler, A., and T. Välilä. 2008. Fiscal federalism and the composition of public investment in Europe. European Journal of Political Economy 24 (3):562–70. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2008.06.002.
- Kim, S., and N. Roubini. 2008. Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the US. Journal of International Economics 74 (2):362–83. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.05.012.
- Kim, S. 2015. Country characteristics and the effects of government consumption shocks on the current account and real exchange rate. Journal of International Economics 97 (2):436–47. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.07.007.
- Klenow, P. J., and O. Kryvtsov. 2008. State-dependent or time-dependent pricing: Does it matter for recent US inflation? The Quarterly Journal of Economics 123 (3):863–904. doi:https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2008.123.3.863.
- Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. 1992. Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of econometrics 54 (1–3):159–178.
- Kydland, F. E., and C. E. Zarazaga. 2002. Argentina’s lost decade. Review of Economic Dynamics 5 (1):152–65. doi:https://doi.org/10.1006/redy.2001.0145.
- Kydland, F. E., and E. C. Prescott. 1982. Time to build and aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 50 (6):1345–70. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/1913386.
- Kydland, F. E., and E. C. Prescott. 1991. The econometrics of the general equilibrium approach to business cycles. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics 93 (2):161–78. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/3440324.
- Lambertini, L., and C. Proebsting. 2020. Fiscal policy, relative prices and net exports in a currency union. Working Paper. Mimeo.
- Li, J., Q. Song, C. Peng, and Y. Wu. 2020. COVID-19 pandemic and household liquidity constraints: Evidence from micro data. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 56 (15):3626–34. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1854721.
- MacDonald, R., and L. A. Ricci. 2002. Purchasing power parity and new trade theory, Vol. 2. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451845129.001.
- MacKinnon, J. G. 1996. Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of applied econometrics 11 (6): 601–618.
- Mackowiak, B., and F. Smets. 2009. Implications of microeconomic price data for macroeconomic models. In Understanding inflation and the implications for monetary policy: A Phillips curve retrospective, ed. J. Fuhrer, J. S. Little, Y. K. Kodrzycki, and G. P. Olivei, 291–332. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.
- Mankiw, N. G. 1990. A quick refresher course in macroeconomics. Journal of Economic Literature 28 (4):1645–60.
- McGrattan, E. R. 1994. The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation. Journal of Monetary Economics 33 (3):573–601. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(94)90044-2.
- Mendoza, E. G., and M. Uribe (2000, December). Devaluation risk and the business-cycle implications of exchange-rate management. In Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (Vol. 53, No. 1, pp. 239–96). North-Holland.
- Mendoza, E. G. 1991. Real business cycles in a small open economy. The American Economic Review 81 (4): 797–818.
- Miyamoto, W., T. L. Nguyen, and V. Sheremirov. 2019. The effects of government spending on real exchange rates: Evidence from military spending panel data. Journal of International Economics 116:144–57. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.11.009.
- Monacelli, T., and R. Perotti. 2010. Fiscal policy, the real exchange rate and traded goods. The Economic Journal 120 (544):437–61. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02362.x.
- Moura, M. L., and A. de Carvalho. 2010. What can Taylor rules say about monetary policy in Latin America? Journal of Macroeconomics 32 (1):392–404. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2009.03.002.
- Nakamura, E., and J. Steinsson. 2008. Five facts about prices: A reevaluation of menu cost models. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 123 (4):1415–64. doi:https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2008.123.4.1415.
- Neumeyer, P. A., and F. Perri. 2005. Business cycles in emerging economies: The role of interest rates. Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (2):345–80. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.04.011.
- Obstfeld, M., and K. Rogoff. 1995. Exchange rate dynamics redux. Journal of Political Economy 103 (3):624–60. doi:https://doi.org/10.1086/261997.
- Ravn, M. O., S. Schmitt-Grohé, and M. Uribe. 2012. Consumption, government spending, and the real exchange rate. Journal of Monetary Economics 59 (3):215–34. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.02.001.
- Reinhart, C. M., and C. A. Végh. 1995. Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination. Journal of Development Economics 46 (2):357–78. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(94)00068-N.
- Reinhart, C. M., K. S. Rogoff, and M. Savastano. 2003. Debt intolerance. In Brookings papers on economic activity, W. Brainerd and G. Perry ed.
- Ricci, L. A., G. M. Milesi‐Ferretti, and J. Lee. 2013. Real exchange rates and fundamentals: A cross‐country perspective. Journal of Money Credit and Banking 45 (5):845–65. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12027.
- Rodrik, D. 2008. The real exchange rate and economic growth. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2008 (2):365–412. doi:https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.0.0020.
- Schmitt-Grohé, S., and M. Uribe. 2001. Stabilization policy and the costs of dollarization. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 33 (2):482–509. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/2673912.
- Schmitt-Grohé, S., and M. Uribe. 2003. Closing small open economy models. Journal of International Economics 61 (1):163–85. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(02)00056-9.
- Senhadji, A. S. 1994. Adjustment of a small open economy to external shocks, Dissertation. University of Pennsylvania.
- Solow, R. M. 1956. A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 70 (1):65–94. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513.
- Stock, J. H., and M. W. Watson. 1993. A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 61 (4):783–820. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/2951763.
- Taylor, A. M. 2018. The Argentina Paradox: Microexplanations and macropuzzles. Latin American Economic Review 27 (1):1–17. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s40503-017-0051-8.
- Taylor, J. B. 2019. Inflation targeting in high inflation emerging economies: Lessons about rules and instruments. Journal of Applied Economics 22 (1):103–16. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2019.1565396.
- Uribe, M., and V. Z. Yue. 2006. Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom? Journal of International Economics 69 (1):6–36. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2005.04.003.
- Uribe, M. 1997. Exchange-rate-based inflation stabilization: The initial real effects of credible plans. Journal of Monetary Economics 39 (2):197–221. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00018-4.
- Yeyati, E. L., and R. Valdés. 2020. 6 COVID-19 in Latin America: How is it different than in advanced economies? In Covid-19 in developing economies, ed. S. Djankov, and U. Panizza. London: CEPR Press.