A socio-technical transitions perspective for assessing future sustainability following the COVID-19 pandemic

References

• Aaronson, D., H. Burkhardt, and J. Faberman. 2020. “Potential jobs impacted by Covid-19” Accessed 8 April 2020. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/blogs/midwest-economy/2020/impacted-jobs.
   Google Scholar
• Angheloiu, C., G. Chaudhuri, and L. Sheldrick. 2017. “Future Tense: Alternative Futures as a Design Method for Sustainability Transitions.” The Design Journal 20 (sup1): S3213–S3225. doi:10.1080/14606925.2017.1352827.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ansah, R., and S. Sorooshian. 2019. “Green Economy: Private Sectors’ Response to Climate Change.” Environmental Quality Management 28 (3): 63–69. doi:10.1002/tqem.21620.
   Google Scholar
• Anwar, S. T. 2020. “Global Strategy Gone Astray: Maersk’s Big Box Boats and the World Shipping Industry.” Thunderbird International Business Review 62 (2): 183–196. doi:10.1002/tie.22115.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baum, S., D. Denkenberger, J. Pearce, A. Robock, and R. Winkler. 2015. “Resilience to Global Food Supply Catastrophes.” Environment Systems and Decisions 35 (2): 301–313. doi:10.1007/s10669-015-9549-2.
   Google Scholar
• BBC 2018. “US steel and aluminium imports face big tariffs.” Accessed 27 March 2018. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43249614.
   Google Scholar
• Blyth, M. 2009. “Coping with the Black Swan: The Unsettling World of Nassim Taleb.” Critical Review 21 (4): 447–465. doi:10.1080/08913810903441385.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Borel-Saladin, J., and I. Turok. 2013. “The Green Economy: Incremental Change or Transformation?” Environmental Policy and Governance 23 (4): 209–220. doi:10.1002/eet.1614.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Borriello, A., and N. Brack. 2019. “‘I Want My Sovereignty Back!' A Comparative Analysis of the Populist Discourses of Podemos, the 5 Star Movement, the FN and UKIP during the Economic and Migration Crises.” Journal of European Integration 41 (7): 833–853. doi:10.1080/07036337.2019.1665658.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Capasso, M., T. Hansen, J. Heiberg, A. Klitkou, and M. Steen. 2019. “Green Growth: A Synthesis of Scientific Findings.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 146: 390–402. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2019.06.013.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cohen, M. 2020. “Does the COVID-19 Outbreak Mark the Onset of a Sustainable Consumption Transition?” Sustainability: Science, Practice and Policy 16 (1): 1–3. doi:10.1080/15487733.2020.1740472.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Coupe, J., C. Bardeen, A. Robock, and O. Toon. 2019. “Nuclear Winter Responses to Nuclear War between the United States and Russia in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 124 (15): 8522–8543. doi:10.1029/2019JD030509.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cuervo-Cazurra, A., Y. Doz, and A. Gaur. 2020. “Skepticism of Globalization and Global Strategy: Increasing Regulations and Countervailing Strategies.” Global Strategy Journal 10 (1): 3–31. doi:10.1002/gsj.1374.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ferguson, P. 2015. “The Green Economy Agenda: Business as Usual or Transformational Discourse?” Environmental Politics 24 (1): 17–37. doi:10.1080/09644016.2014.919748.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Flew, T. 2018. “Post-Globalisation.” Javnost – The Public 25 (1–2): 102–109. doi:10.1080/13183222.2018.1418958.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Flew, T. 2020. “Globalization, Neo-Globalization and Post-Globalization: The Challenge of Populism and the Return of the National.” Global Media and Communication 10.1177/1742766519900329.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Geels, F. 2002. “Technological Transitions as Evolutionary Reconfiguration Processes: A Multi-Level Perspective and a Case-Study.” Research Policy 31 (8–9): 1257–1274. doi:10.1016/S0048-7333(02)00062-8.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Geels, F. 2014. “Regime Resistance against Low-Carbon Transitions: Introducing Politics and Power into the Multi-Level Perspective.” Theory, Culture and Society 31 (5): 21–40. doi:10.1177/0263276414531627.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Geels, F., A. McMeekin, J. Mylan, and D. Southerton. 2015. “A Critical Appraisal of Sustainable Consumption and Production Research: The Reformist, Revolutionary and Reconfiguration Positions.” Global Environmental Change 34: 1–12. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.013.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Geels, F., A. McMeekin, and B. Pfluger. 2020. “Socio-Technical Scenarios as a Methodological Tool to Explore Social and Political Feasibility in Low-Carbon Transitions: Bridging Computer Models and the Multi-Level Perspective in UK Electricity Generation (2010–2050).” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 151: 119258. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2018.04.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Girouard, N. 2011. “The OECD Green Growth Strategy.” OECD Observer 285: 11–12.
   Google Scholar
• Grubb, M., J.-C. Hourcade, and K. Neuhoff. 2015. “The Three Domains Structure of Energy-Climate Transitions.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 98: 290–302. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2015.05.009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Heinisch, R., A. Werner, and F. Habersack. 2020. “Reclaiming National Sovereignty: The Case of the Conservatives and the Far Right in Austria.” European Politics and Society 21 (2): 163–181. doi:10.1080/23745118.2019.1632577.
   Google Scholar
• Hickman, R., and D. Banister. 2007. “Looking Over the Horizon: Transport and Reduced CO2 Emissions in the UK by 2030.” Transport Policy 14 (5): 377–387. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2007.04.005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• IHS Markit. 2015. “Five trends shaping the global maritime industry.” Accessed 4 April 2020. IHS.com/maritime_trade.
   Google Scholar
• International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2020). “IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva’s statement following a G20 ministerial call on the coronavirus emergency, International Monetary Fund, Press Release No. 20/98.” Accessed 9 April 2020. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/03/23/pr2098-imf-managing-director-statement-following-a-g20-ministerial-call-on-the-coronavirus-emergency.
   Google Scholar
• Jonkeren, O., B. Jourquin, and P. Rietveld. 2011. “Modal-Split Effects of Climate Change: The Effect of Low Water Levels on the Competitive Position of Inland Waterway Transport in the River Rhine Area.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 45 (10): 1007–1019. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2009.01.004.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kallis, G. 2011. “In Defence of Degrowth.” Ecological Economics 70 (5): 873–880. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.12.007.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kallis, G. 2017. “Radical Dematerialization and Degrowth.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 375 (2095): 20160383. doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0383.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kallis, G. 2019. “Socialism without Growth.” Capitalism Nature Socialism 30 (2): 189–206. doi:10.1080/10455752.2017.1386695.
   Google Scholar
• Kerschner, C., P. Wächter, L. Nierling, and M.-H. Ehlers. 2018. “Degrowth and Technology: Towards Feasible, Viable, Appropriate and Convivial Imaginaries.” Journal of Cleaner Production 197: 1619–1636. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.07.147.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mair, S. 2020. “How will coronavirus change the world?” Accessed 30 March 2020. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200331-covid-19-how-will-the-coronavirus-change-the-world.
   Google Scholar
• McDowall, W. 2014. “Exploring Possible Transition Pathways for Hydrogen Energy: A Hybrid Approach Using Socio-Technical Scenarios and Energy System Modelling.” Futures 63: 1–14. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2014.07.004.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meadows, D., D. Meadows, J. Randers, and W. Behrens. 1972. The Limits to Growth. New York: Universe Books.
   Google Scholar
• Morley, H. R. 2016. “Container shipping overcapacity forecast to worsen.” Journal of Commerce. Accessed 29 March 2020. https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/container-lines/container-shipping-overcapacity-forecast-worsen_20161102.html.
   Google Scholar
• Motesharrei, S., J. Rivas, and E. Kalnay. 2014. “Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY): Modeling Inequality and Use of Resources in the Collapse or Sustainability of Societies.” Ecological Economics 101: 90–102. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.02.014.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Motesharrei, S., J. Rivas, E. Kalnay, G. Asrar, A. Busalacchi, R. Cahalan, M. Cane, et al. 2017. “Modeling Sustainability: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems.” National Science Review 3 (4): 470–494.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Müller, H. 2017. “Populism, de-Globalization, and Media Competition: The Spiral of Noise.” Central European Journal of Communication 10 (1): 64–78. doi:10.19195/1899-5101.10.1(18).5.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Osazuwa-Peters, M., M. Hurlbert, K. McNutt, J. Rayner, and S. Gamtessa. 2020. “Saskatchewan’s Energy Future: Risk and Pathways Analysis.” Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions 34: 237–250. doi:10.1016/j.eist.2020.01.010.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pregger, T., T. Naegler, W. Weimer-Jehle, S. Prehofer, and W. Hauser. 2019. “Moving towards Socio-Technical Scenarios of the German Energy Transition—Lessons Learned from Integrated Energy Scenario Building.” Climatic Change. published December 11. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02598-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schippl, J. 2016. “Assessing the Desirability and Feasibility of Scenarios on Eco-Efficient Transport: A Heuristic for Efficient Stakeholder Involvement during Foresight Processes.” Foresight 18 (1): 41–58. doi:10.1108/FS-05-2014-0034.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shipyards and Maritime Equipment Association (SMEA). 2017. “2017 market forecast report: Newbuilding Requirements 2017–2035, Shipyards’ and Maritime Equipment Association.” Accessed 12 Decmeber 2017. http://www.seaeurope.eu/.
   Google Scholar
• Spinney, L. 2018. “There Are Disturbing Hints That Western Civilisation is Starting to Crumble.” New Scientist 3161: 29–31.
   Google Scholar
• Stoknes, P., and J. Rockström. 2018. “Redefining Green Growth within Planetary Boundaries.” Energy Research and Social Science 44: 41–49. doi:10.1016/j.erss.2018.04.030.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tainter, J. 1988. The Collapse of Complex Societies, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Taleb, N. 2007. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, New York: Random House.
   Google Scholar
• Tavasszy, L., O. Ivanova, and R. Halim. 2015. “Modelling Global Container Freight Transport Demand.” International Series in Operations Research and Management Science 220: 451–475.
   Google Scholar
• Turchin, P. 2008. “Arise “Cliodynamics.” Nature 454 (7200): 34–35. doi:10.1038/454034a.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Turchin, P. 2016. Ages of Discord, Storrs, CT: Beresta Books.
   Google Scholar
• Walker, A. 2020. “Coronavirus: Drop in global trade to be worse than 2008 crisis.” Accessed 8 April 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52211919.
   Google Scholar
• Wang, Y., X. Sun, and X. Guo. 2019. “Environmental Regulation and Green Productivity Growth: Empirical Evidence on the Porter Hypothesis from OECD Industrial Sectors.” Energy Policy 132: 611–619. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2019.06.016.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Witt, M. A. 2019. “De-Globalization: Theories, Predictions, and Opportunities for International Business Research.” Journal of International Business Studies 50 (7): 1053–1077. doi:10.1057/s41267-019-00219-7.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• World Trade Organization (WTO). 2020. “Trade set to plunge as COVID-19 pandemic upends global economy.” Accessed 8 April 2020. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm.
   Google Scholar
• Zhang, Y. 2015. “Reformulating the Low-Carbon Green Growth Strategy in China.” Climate Policy 15 (sup1): S40–S59. doi:10.1080/14693062.2015.1094726.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zukunftsinstitut. 2020. “The corona effect: Four different scenarios.” Accessed 15 April 2020. https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/fileadmin/user_upload/White_Paper-The-Corona-Effect-Zukunftsinstitut.pdf.
   Google Scholar