References
- Agnolucci, P. 2009. Volatility in crude oil futures: A comparison of the predictive ability of GARCH and implied volatility models. Energy Economics 316–21. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2008.11.001.
- ANP, Agência Nacional do Petróleo, 2018a. “Re: Produção Terra X Mar X Pré Sal”. Message from Leonardo Pinto Souza to Jacqueline Mariano. Date: June 12, 2018. Communication by e- mail with the Brazilian petroleum regulatory agency (ANP in its Portuguese acronym).
- ANP, Agência Nacional do Petróleo. 2018b. Publicações: Boletim mensal da produção de petróleo e gás natural. http://www.anp.gov.br/publicacoes/boletins-anp/2395-boletim-mensal-da-producao-de-petroleo-e-gas-natural
- ANP, Agência Nacional do Petróleo. 2018c. Acesso aos Dados Técnicos: Tabelas de poços-Junho 2018. http://www.anp.gov.br/images/Artigos/Producaopoco/tabela_de_pocos_junho_2018.xlsx
- ANP, Agência Nacional do Petróleo, 2018d. “Re: Produção Terra X Mar X Pré Sal”. Message from Leonardo Pinto Souza to Jacqueline Mariano. Date: July 19, 2018. Communication by e- mail with the Brazilian petroleum regulatory agency (ANP in its Portuguese acronym).
- ANP, Agência Nacional do Petróleo. 2018e. Anuário Estatístico 2018. http://www.anp.gov.br/publicacoes/anuario-estatistico/anuario-estatistico-2018
- Ansari, D. 2017. OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and the shale revolution: Insights from equilibrium modelling and oil politics. Energy Policy, Elsevier 111:166–78. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2017.09.010.
- Ansari, E., and R. K. Kaufmann. 2019. The effect of oil and gas price and price volatility on rig activity in tight formations and OPEC strategy. Nature Energy 321–28. doi:10.1038/s41560-019-0350-1.
- Behar, A., and R. A. Ritz. 2017. OPEC vs US shale: Analyzing the shift to a market-share strategy. Energy Economics, Elsevier 63:185–98. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.12.021.
- Benramdane, A. 2017. Oil price volatility and economic growth in Algeria. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 12:338–43. doi:10.1080/15567249.2015.1128015.
- Berntsen, M., K. S. Bøe, T. Jordal, and P. Molnár. 2018. Determinants of oil and gas investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Energy 148:904–14. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.01.147.
- Bøe, K. S., T. Jordal, Š. Mikula, and P. Molnár. 2019. Do political risks harm development of oil fields? Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 157:338–58. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2018.01.005.
- Bollerslev, T. 1986. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics 31:307–27. doi:10.1016/0304-4076(86)90063-1.
- Bos, M., R. Demirer, R. Gupta, and A. K. Tiwari. 2018. Oil returns and volatility: The role of mergers and acquisitions. Energy Economics 71:62–69. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.034.
- Bouri, E., S. J. H. Shahzad, N. Raza, and D. Roubaud. 2018. Oil volatility and sovereign risk of BRICS. Energy Economics, Elsevier 70:258–69. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2017.12.018.
- BP, British Petroleum. 2018. BP Statistical Review of World Energy- June 2018.
- Braga, L. P., and O. B. David. 2018. Why the unitization process is an important issue when dealing with the Brazilian Pre-salt Polygon. Journal of World Energy Law & Business 11:17–33. doi:10.1093/jwelb/jwx038.
- Cunningham, N., 2018. $100 Oil Is A Distinct Possibility. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/100-Oil-Is-A-Distinct-Possibility.html.
- Deloitte, 2018. Exploration and production snapshots: Brazil. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/energy-and-resources/articles/exploration-and-production-in-brazil.html
- Demirbas, A., B. O. Al-Sasi, and A.-S. Nizami. 2017. Recent volatility in the price of crude oil. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 12:408–14. doi:10.1080/15567249.2016.1153751.
- EIA, US Energy Information Administration. 2016. Offshore oil production in deepwater and ultra-deepwater is increasing. Accessed September 13, 2018 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=28552
- EIA, US Energy Information Administration, 2018. Tighter crude oil markets contribute to higher forecast prices. Accessed September 13, 2018 https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/archive/2018/180912/includes/analysis_print.php.
- Enders, W., 1995. Applied Time Series Econometrics, John Wiley and Sons, New York. ISBN: 0–471–03941–1 978–0–471–03941–9
- Gebre-Mariam, Y. K. 2011. Testing for unit roots, causality, cointegration, and efficiency: The case of the northwest US natural gas market. Energy 36:3489–500. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2011.03.055.
- Générale, S., 2018. Country risk of Brazil: Economy. https://import-export.societegenerale.fr/en/country/brazil/economy-country-risk
- Hallack, L. N., and A. Szklo. 2019. Assessing the exploratory potential in Brazil by applying a creaming curve variant. Energy Policy 129:672–83. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2019.02.062.
- Hallack, L. N., A. S. Szklo, A. O. P. Júnior, and J. Schmidt. 2017. Curve-fitting variants to model Brazil’s crude oil offshore post-salt production. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 159:230–43. doi:10.1016/j.petrol.2017.09.015.
- Hallack, L. N., and R. K. Kaufmann, 2018. Data for: How Do Oil Prices, Oil Prices’ Volatility, Productivity and Country Risk Affect Oil Development in the Pre-Salt Zone in Brazil? Mendeley Data, v2. 10.17632/wcz85htc3m.2
- Hendry, D. F., and J. A. Doornik. 2014. Empirical Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation Automatic Selection Methods in Econometrics. Cambridge, MA, USA: The MIT Press.
- Hou, A., and S. Suardi. 2012. A nonparametric GARCH model of crude oil price return volatility. Energy Economics 34:618–26. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2011.08.004.
- Hurn, A. S., and R. E. Wright. 1994. Geology or economics? testing models of irreversible investment using north sea oil data. The Economic Journal 104:363–71. doi:10.2307/2234756.
- IEA, International Energy Agency, 2018. Record oil output from US, Brazil, Canada and Norway to keep global markets well supplied. Accessed July 17, 2018. https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/march/record-oil-output-from-us-brazil-canada-and-norway-to-keep-global-markets-well-.html
- IPEA, 2018. Produto interno bruto (PIB) real. Accessed October 12, 2018. http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/exibeserie.aspx?serid=38414
- Jeanneret, A. 2018. Sovereign credit spreads under good/bad governance. Journal of Banking & Finance 93:230–46. doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.04.005.
- Johansen, S. 1996. Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models, 1st edition. ed, advanced texts in econometrics. USA: Oxford University Press.
- Juselius, K. 2007. The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications, 2nd Edition. ed, Advanced Texts in Econometrics. USA: Oxford University Press.
- Kang, S. H., S.-M. Kang, and S.-M. Yoon. 2009. Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets. Energy Economics 31:119–25. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2008.09.006.
- Kaufmann, R. K. 2016. Price differences among crude oils: The private costs of supply disruptions. Energy Economics, Elsevier 56:1–8. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.02.005.
- Kaufmann, R. K., and S. Banerjee. 2014. A unified world oil market: Regions in physical, economic, geographic, and political space. Energy Policy, Elsevier 74:235–42. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2014.08.028.
- Kaufmann, R. K., W. Gruen, and R. Montesi. 1994. Drilling rates abd expected oil prices: the own price elasticity of US Oil Supply. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 16:39–58. doi:10.1080/00908319408909061.
- Klein, T., and T. Walther. 2016. Oil price volatility forecast with mixture memory GARCH. Energy Economics 58:46–58. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.06.004.
- Kleinberg, R. L., S. Paltsev, C. K. E. Ebinger, D. A. Hobbs, and T. Boersma. 2018. Tight oil market dynamics: Benchmarks, breakeven points, and inelasticities. Energy Economics 70–83. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2017.11.018.
- Leahy, J., and C Adams., 2016. Royal Dutch Shell chief executive says Brazil oil will break even. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/e8c07066-d3ec-11e5-969e-9d801cf5e15b
- Manescu, C. B., and G. Nuño, 2015. Quantitative Effects of the Shale Oil Revolution (No. Documentos de Trabajo No 1518). Banco de España.
- Mariano, J. B., J. L. Souza, and N. N. De, Filho. 2018. Fiscal regimes for hydrocarbons exploration and production in Brazil. Energy Policy 119:620–47. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.033.
- Mohammadi, H., and L. Su. 2010. International evidence on crude oil price dynamics: Applications of ARIMA-GARCH models. Energy Economics 32:1001–08. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2010.04.009.
- Narayan, P. K., and S. Narayan. 2007. Modelling oil price volatility. Energy Policy 35:6549–53. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.07.020.
- Naser, H. 2015. Analyzing the long-run relationship among oil market, nuclear energy consumption, and economic growth: An evidence from emerging economies. Energy 89:421–34. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2015.05.115.
- Noon, C., 2016. Brazil’s battle to break even in pre-salt. Interfax Global Energy. http://interfaxenergy.com/gasdaily/article/20132/brazils-battle-to-break-even-in-pre-salt
- O’Sullivan, M. L. 2017. Windfall. How the New Energy Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens America’s Power., 1st ed. Simon & Schuster.
- OECD, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. 2019. Country Risk Classification. Accessed January 7, 2019. http://www.oecd.org/tad/xcred/crc.htm
- Ohara, A.P., 2014. Possíveis destinos para o excedente de petróleo brasileiro: um estudo sobre o mercado chinês. M.Sc. Thesis. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ. http://www.ppe.ufrj.br/index.php/pt/publicacoes/dissertacoes/2015-2/390-possiveis-destinos-para-o-excedente-de-petroleo-brasileiro-um-estudo-sobre-o-mercado-chines
- Oliveira, R. L. D. 2011. Dealing with plenty: Brazil in the era of surplus oil. Urbana, Illinois, USA: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
- Oliveira, R. L. D. 2017. The Politics of Unconventional Oil: Indutrial and Technology Policy in Brazil, Malaysia, and Mexico. Boston, USA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
- OpenOil, 2014. Libra Project, Brazil. http://openoil.net/wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/OO_br_Libra_narrative_1.0_161104.pdf
- Paganie, D., 2018. Deepwater players benefiting from oil price stability, lower costs. Offshore. https://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/print/volume-78/issue-2/departments/comment/deepwater-players-benefiting-from-oil-price-stability-lower-costs.html
- Paraskova, T., 2017. Shell: Breakeven For Brazilian Pre-salt Less Than $40. OilPrice.com. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shell-Breakeven-For-Brazilian-Pre-salt-Less-Than-40.html
- Parente, P. 2018. Is the turnaround over? 2018 latin america investment conference. http: //www.investidorpetrobras.com.br/en/presentations/general-presentations.
- Pavlova, I., M. E. Boyrie, and A. M. De, Parhizgari. 2018. A dynamic spillover analysis of crude oil effects on the sovereign credit risk of exporting countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 68:10–22. doi:10.1016/j.qref.2018.03.003.
- Pedra, P., and A Szklo., 2018. Are fiscal incentives for the oil business in Brazil really necessary? Presented at the 2nd Conference on Fossil Fuel Supply & Climate Policy, The Queen’s College, Oxford, UK
- Petrobras. 2014. Petrobras declares commerciality of the Santos Basin pre-salt areas of Iara and Entorno de Iara. Accessed July 19, 2018 http://www.investidorpetrobras.com.br/en/press-releases/petrobras-declares-commerciality-santos-basin-pre-salt-areas-iara-and-entorno-de-iara
- Petrobras. 2015. Pioneering technologies for the Pre-salt. Accessed July 7, 2018. https://presal.hotsitespetrobras.com.br/pioneering-technologies/#0
- Petrobras, 2017. Petrobras focus on its strengths. http://www.agenciapetrobras.com.br/upload/documentos/apresentacao_Rh7L2Aabtr.pdf
- Petrobras. 2018a. Petrobras’ Proved Reserves in 2017. Relacionamento com Investidores. Accessed September 13, 2018 http://www.investidorpetrobras.com.br/en/press-releases/petrobrasu-proved-reserves-2017
- Petrobras. 2018b. S&P Global Ratings affirmed Petrobras’ risk rating. http://www.investidorpetrobras.com.br/en/press-releases/sp-global-ratings-affirmed-petrobras-risk-rating Accessed October 16, 2018.
- Platts. 2011. Dated Brent: The pricing Benchmark for Asia-pacific Sweet crude Oil.
- Raza, N., S. J. H. Shahzad, A. K. Tiwari, and M. Shahbaz. 2016. Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets. Resources Policy 49:290–301. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2016.06.011.
- Reuters. 2018a. New rules on ship emissions herald sea change for oil market. Accessed October 15, 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shipping-fuel-sulphur/new-rules-on-ship-emissions-herald-sea-change-for-oil-market-idUSKCN1II0PP
- Reuters. 2018b. BofA Merrill raises 2019 Brent crude price forecasts. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-research-crude-bofa/bofa-merrill-raises-2019-brent-crude-price-forecasts-idUKKCN1M40ZY?il=0
- Sadorsky, P. 2006. Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility. Energy Economics 28:467–88. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2006.04.005.
- Sandrea, R., and D. A. Goddard. 2016. New reservoir-quality index forecasts field well-productivity worldwide. Oil & Gas Journal. https://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-114/issue-12/drilling-production/new-reservoir-quality-index-forecasts-field-well-productivity-worldwide.html
- Seitz, T., and K Yanosek., 2015. Navigating in deep water: greater rewards through narrower focus. McKinsey&Company Oil &Gas. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/navigating-in-deepwater-greater-rewards-through-narrower-focus 67 82-87 doi:10.2118/0315-0082-JPT
- Shell, 2016. Brazil Shareholder visit 2016. https://www.shell.com/investors/news-and-media-releases/investor-presentations/2016-investor-presentations/2016-brazil-shareholder-visit/_jcr_content/par/textimage_fa6c.stream/1478691780706/533915a1ea2988a0df567900d61e5fc1fb545fa5dda59624eda0d47ed54040d8/deepwater-brazil-shareholder-visit-2016.pdf
- Smith, G. 2018. Oil at $100 is a possibility next year, bank of America Says. Bloomberg. Accessed October 15, 2018. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/oil-at-100-is-a-possibility-next-year-bank-of-america-says
- Solbraekke, K., and P.M Nysveen. 2016. Statoil gains control over brazil pre-salt project carcará. Rystad Energy. https: //www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/preparing-for-rebound-in-oil-price/.
- Stedman, A., and K. P. Green. 2017. Global Petroleum Survey 2017. Fraser Institute. https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/global-petroleum-survey-2017
- Stevenson, R., 2018. Petrobras’ record production a testament to Parente’s steady stewardship. LatAmOil - Latin America Oil & Gas. https://newsbase.com/commentary/petrobras%E2%80%99-record-production-testament-parente%E2%80%99s-steady-stewardship
- Strata Advisors, 2016. Break-even Oil Price of Global Oil Developments. https://stratasadvisors.com/Insights/111416-Break-even-Oil-Price
- Tamba, J. G. 2017. Crude oil production and economic growth: Evidence from Cameroon. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 12:275–81. doi:10.1080/15567249.2015.1101511.
- The Economist. 2009. Brazil takes off.
- The Economist.2016. Brazil’s fall.
- Total 2015. Offshore oil and gas production. Planete Energies. https://www.planete-energies.com/en/medias/close/offshore-oil-and-gas-production
- Umekwe, M., and J. Baek. 2017a. Do oil prices really matter to US shale oil production? Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 12:268–74. doi:10.1080/15567249.2015.1093043.
- Umekwe, M., and J. Baek. 2017b. The impact of oil price changes on major US tight oil plays. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 12:786–93. doi:10.1080/15567249.2017.1279241.
- Waterworth, A., and M. J. Bradshaw. 2018. Unconventional trade-offs? National oil companies, foreign investment and oil and gas development in Argentina and Brazil. Energy Policy 122:7–16. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.07.011.
- Wei, Y., Y. Wang, and D. Huang. 2010. Forecasting crude oil market volatility: Further evidence using GARCH-class models. Energy Economics 32:1477–84. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2010.07.009.