Can public slow charging accelerate plug-in electric vehicle sales? A simulation of charging infrastructure usage and its impact on plug-in electric vehicle sales for Germany

References

• Al-Alawi, B. M., & Bradley, T. H. (2013). Review of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle market modeling studies. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 21, 190–203.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• BCG (2009). The Boston Consulting Group: The comeback of the electric car—How real, How soon, and What Must Happen Next. Technical report.
   Google Scholar
• BCG (2013). Boston Consulting Group (BCG): Trendstudie 2030+ Kompetenzinitiative Energie des BDI. Study of the Boston Consulting Group in behalf of the Federation of German Industry (BDI). München.
   Google Scholar
• BDEW (2014). German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW): BDEW-Strompreisanalyse Juni 2014 – Haushalte und Industrie.
   Google Scholar
• BMWi (2015). Verordnungsentwurf des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Energie vom 9. Januar 2015:” Verordnung über technische Mindestanforderungen an den sicheren und interoperablen Aufbau und Betrieb von öffentlich zugänglichen Ladepunkten für Elektromobile (Ladesäulenverordnung LSV)”. Berlin, Germany.
   Google Scholar
• Bonabeau, E. (2002). Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 99(Suppl 3), 7280–7287.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Capros, P., Vita, A. D., Tasios, N., et al. (2013). EU Energy Trends to 2050. Luxembourg.
   Google Scholar
• Dataforce. (2011). Elektrofahrzeuge in deutschen Fuhrparks - Zur künftigen Bedeutung von Elektrofahrzeugen in deutschen Flotten. Technical report, Dataforce Verlagsgesellschaft für Business Informationen, Frankfurt a.M., Germany.
   Google Scholar
• Daziano, R. A., & Chiew, E. (2012). Electric vehicles rising from the dead: Data needs for forecasting consumer response toward sustainable energy sources in personal transportation. Energy Policy, 51, 876–894.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dütschke, E., Schneider, U., Sauer, A., Wietschel, M., Hoffmann, J., & Domke, S. (2011). Roadmap zur Kundenakzeptanz – Zentrale Ergebnisse der sozialwissenschaftlichen Begleitforschung in den Modellregionen. Technical report, Fraunhofer ISI, Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development (Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung) (BMVBS), Berlin, Germany.
   Google Scholar
• Ecotality & INL (2012). The EV Project Q1 2012 Report. US: Technical report, Ecotality Inc. and Idaho National Lab.
   Google Scholar
• Flynn, P. C. (2002). Commercializing an alternate vehicle fuel: Lessons learned from natural gas for vehicles. Energy Policy, 30(7), 613–619.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Follmer, R., Gruschwitz, D., & Jesske, B. (2010). Mobilität in Deutschland 2008 Ergebnisbericht. infas Institut für angewandte Sozialwissenschaft, Institut für Verkehrsforschung des Deutschen Zentrums für Luft und Raumfahrt e.V., Berlin, Germany.
   Google Scholar
• Franke, T., & Krems, J. F. (2013). What drives range preferences in electric vehicle users?. Transport Policy, 30, 56–62.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fraunhofer ISI. (2014). REM2030 Driving Profiles Database V2014-07. Technical report, Karlsruhe, Germany: Fraunhofer Institute of Systems and Innovation Research ISI.
   Google Scholar
• Funke, S., Gnann, T., & Plötz, P. (2015). Addressing the different needs for charging infrastructure: An analysis of some criteria for charging infrastructure set-up. In Leal, W. and Kotter, R., editors, E-Mobility in Europe Trends and Good Practice. Springer, London, UK.
   Google Scholar
• Gnann, T. (2015). Market diffusion of plug-in electric vehicles and their charging infrastructure. Karlsruhe, Germany: Fraunhofer Publishing.
   Google Scholar
• Gnann, T., Funke, S., Jakobsson, N., Plötz, P., Sprei, F., & Bennehag, A. (2018). Fast charging infrastructure for electric vehicles: Todays situation and future needs. Transportation Research D: Transport and Environment, 62, 314–329.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gnann, T., & Plötz, P. (2015). A review of combined models for market diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles and their refueling infrastructure. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 47, 783–793.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gnann, T., Plötz, P., Funke, S., & Wietschel, M. (2015). What is the market potential of plug-in electric vehicles as commercial passenger cars? A case study from Germany. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 37, 171–187.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gnann, T., Plötz, P., & Haag, M. (2013). What is the future of public charging infrastructure for electric vehicles? A techno-economic assessment of public charging points for Germany. In Proceedings of the 2013 ECEEE summer study, Toulon, France.
   Google Scholar
• Gnann, T., Plötz, P., & Kley, F. (2012). Vehicle charging infrastructure demand for the introduction of plug-in electric vehicles in Germany and the US. In Proceedings of Electric Vehicle Symposium 26 (EVS 26), Los Angeles, US.
   Google Scholar
• Gnann, T., Plötz, P., Kühn, A., & Wietschel, M. (2015). Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data German market and policy options. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 77, 95–112.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gnann, T., Stephens, T., Lin, Z., Plötz, P., Liu, C., & Brokate, J. (2018). What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? A review of international PEV market diffusion models. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. Accepted for publication.
   Google Scholar
• Götz, K., Sunderer, G., Birzle-Harder, B., & Deffner, J. (2011). Attraktivität und Akzeptanz von Elektroautos: Ergebnisse aus dem Projekt OPTUM Optimierung der Umweltentlastungspotenziale von Elektrofahrzeugen. Number 18 in ISOE-Studientexte.
   Google Scholar
• Hacker, F., Harthan, R., Kasten, P., Loreck, C., & Zimmer, W. (2011). Marktpotenziale und CO2-Bilanz von Elektromobilität - Arbeitspakete 2 bis 5 des Forschungsvorhabens OPTUM. Technical report. Freiburg, Berlin, Germany: Öko-Institut.
   Google Scholar
• Hare, M., & Deadman, P. (2004). Further towards a taxonomy of agent-based simulation models in environmental management. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 64(1), 25–40. MSSANZ/IMACS 14th Biennial Conference on Modelling and Simulation.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Harrison, G., Thiel, C., & Jones, L. (2016). Powertrain technology transition market agent model (ptt-mam): An introduction. Technical report, Tech. rep. 2016. Publications Office of the European Union, available at: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC100418.
   Google Scholar
• Hautzinger, H., Kagerbauer, M., Mallig, N., Pfeiffer, M., & Zumkeller, D. (2013). Mikromodellierung für die Region Stuttgart – Schlussbericht. Technical report, INOVAPLAN GmbH, Institute for Transport Studies at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institut für angewandte Verkehrs- und Tourismusforschung e.V., Karlsruhe, Heilbronn, Germany.
   Google Scholar
• Hidrue, M. K., Parsons, G. R., Kempton, W., & Gardner, M. P. (2011). Willingness to pay for electric vehicles and their attributes. Resource and Energy Economics, 33(3), 686–705.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Huston, M., DeAngelis, D., & Post, W. (1988). New computer models unify ecological theory. BioScience, 38(10), 682–691. pages
   Google Scholar
• IEA (2013). International Energy Agency (IEA): World Energy Outlook 2013. Paris, France.
   Google Scholar
• Ito, N., Takeuchi, K., & Managi, S. (2013). Willingness-to-pay for infrastructure investments for alternative fuel vehicles. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 18, 1–8.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jensen, A. F., Cherchi, E., & Mabit, S. L. (2013). On the stability of preferences and attitudes before and after experiencing an electric vehicle. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 25, 24–32.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jochem, P., Gómez Vilchez, J. J., Ensslen, A., Schäuble, J., & Fichtner, W. (2018). Methods for forecasting the market penetration of electric drivetrains in the passenger car market. Transport Reviews, 38(3), 322–348.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kalhammer, F. R., Kopf, B. M., Swan, D. H., Roan, V. P., & Walsh, M. P. (2007). Status and prospects for zero emissions vehicle technology. Report of the ARB Independent Expert Panel, 1(1), 12–36.
   Google Scholar
• KBA. (2014a). Fahrzeugzulassungen (FZ) - Bestand am 01.01.2014 an Kraftfahrzeugen und Kraftfahrzeuganhängern nach Haltern, Wirtschaftszweigen (FZ23). Technical report, German Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA), Flensburg, Germany.
   Google Scholar
• KBA. (2014b). Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA): Vehicle stock (01/01/2014) distinguished by vehicle registrations areas (FZ1). Flensburg, Germany.
   Google Scholar
• Köhler, J., Wietschel, M., Whitmarsh, L., Keles, D., & Schade, W. (2010). Infrastructure investment for a transition to hydrogen automobiles. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(8), 1237–1248.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• KVV (2006). Karlsruher Verkehrverbund: Nahverkehrsplan 2006. Engelhardt und Bauer, Karlsruhe, Germany.
   Google Scholar
• Lee, D. H., Park, S. Y., Kim, J. W., & Lee, S. K. (2013). Analysis on the feedback effect for the diffusion of innovative technologies focusing on the green car. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(3), 498–509. Future-Oriented Technology Analysis.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lemnet (2014). Data on German Charging Stations. Lemnet.org. Ilmenau, Germany.
   Google Scholar
• Lin, Z., & Greene, D. L. (2011). Promoting the market for plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2252(1), 49–56.
   Google Scholar
• Linssen, J., Bickert, S., Hennings, W., et al. (2012). Netzintegration von Fahrzeugen mit elektrifizierten Antriebssystemen in bestehende und zukünftige Energieversorgungsstrukturen-Advances in Systems Analyses 1, volume 1. Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany.
   Google Scholar
• Liu, C., & Lin, Z. (2017). How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from monte carlo simulations using a nested logit model. International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 11(4), 237–247.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mahler, A., & Rogers, E. M. (1999). The diffusion of interactive communication innovations and the critical mass: The adoption of telecommunications services by German banks. Telecommunications Policy, 23(10-11), 719–740.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McKinsey (2012). McKinsey & Company: Die Energiewende in Deutschland - Anspruch, Wirklichkeit und Perspektiven.
   Google Scholar
• Melaina, M. W. (2003). Initiating hydrogen infrastructures: Preliminary analysis of a sufficient number of initial hydrogen stations in the US. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 28(7), 743–755.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• MOP (2010). “Mobilitätspanel Deutschland” 1994–2010. Technical report, Projektbearbeitung durch das Institut für Verkehrswesen der Universität Karlsruhe (TH). Verteilt durch die Clearingstelle Verkehr des DLR-Instituts für Verkehrsforschung: www.clearingstelle-verkehr.de, Karlsruhe, Germany.
   Google Scholar
• Noori, M., & Tatari, O. (2016). Development of an agent-based model for regional market penetration projections of electric vehicles in the United States. Energy, 96, 215–230.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nykvist, B., & Nilsson, M. (2015). Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles. Nature Climate Change, 5(4), 329–332.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Onat, N. C., Noori, M., Kucukvar, M., Zhao, Y., Tatari, O., & Chester, M. (2017). Exploring the suitability of electric vehicles in the United States. Energy, 121, 631–642.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pasaoglu, G., Fiorello, D., Martino, A., Zani, L., Zubaryeva, A., & Thiel, C. (2014). Travel patterns and the potential use of electric cars—Results from a direct survey in six European countries. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 87, 51–59.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pasaoglu, G., Harrison, G., Jones, L., Hill, A., Beaudet, A., & Thiel, C. (2016). A system dynamics based market agent model simulating future powertrain technology transition: Scenarios in the eu light duty vehicle road transport sector. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 104, 133–146.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peters, A., Agosti, A., Popp, M., & Ryf, B. (2011). Electric mobility—a survey of different consumer groups in Germany with regard to adoption. Proceedings of the 2011 ECEEE summer study, Toulon, France.
   Google Scholar
• Peters, A., D., & Haan, P. (2006). Der Autokäufer – seine Charakteristika und Präferenzen. Ergebnisbericht im Rahmen des Projekts” Entscheidungsfaktoren beim Kauf treibstoffeffizienter Neuwagen”. Technical report, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
   Google Scholar
• Peters, A., & Dütschke, E. (2014). How do consumers perceive electric vehicles? A comparison of German consumer groups. Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 16(3), 359–377.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pfahl, S. (2013). 4. Alternative Antriebskonzepte: Stand der Technik und Perspektiven–Die Sicht der Automobilindustrie. In Alternative Antriebskonzepte bei sich wandelnden Mobilitätsstilen: Tagungsbeiträge vom 08. und 09. März 2012 am KIT, Karlsruhe, KIT Scientific Publishing, Karlsruhe, Germany, pp. 81–108.
   Google Scholar
• Plötz, P., Gnann, T., & Wietschel, M. (2014). Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – part i: Model structure and validation. Ecological Economics, 107, 411–421.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Plötz, P., Gnann, T., Wietschel, M., & Kühn, A. (2013). Market evolution scenarios for electric vehicles - detailed version. Commissioned by acatech - German National Academy of Science and Engineering and Working Group 7 of the German National Platform for Electric Mobility (NPE). Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany.
   Google Scholar
• Qian, L., & Soopramanien, D. (2015). Incorporating heterogeneity to forecast the demand of new products in emerging markets: Green cars in china. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 91, 33–46.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rousseau, A., Badin, M., Redelbach, M., et al. (2012). Comparison of Energy consumption and costs of different HEVs and PHEVs in European and American context. In Proceeding of European Electric Vehicle Congress (EEVC), Brussels, Belgium.
   Google Scholar
• Rune, J. (2001). Mobile telecommunications network and method for implementing and identifying hierarchical overlapping radio coverage areas. US Patent 6,275,706.
   Google Scholar
• Schlesinger, M., Lindenberger, D., & Lutz, C. (2011). Energieszenarien. Study on Behalf of the German Ministry for Economy and Technology.
   Google Scholar
• Schwoon, M. (2007). A tool to optimize the initial distribution of hydrogen filling stations. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 12(2), 70–82.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sterman, J. D. (2002). System dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. In Proceedings of the ESD Internal Symposium.
   Google Scholar
• Wolinetz, M., & Axsen, J. (2017). How policy can build the plug-in electric vehicle market: Insights from the respondent-based preference and constraints (REPAC) model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 117, 238–250.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wooldridge, M., & Jennings, N. R. (1995). Intelligent agents: Theory and practice. The Knowledge Engineering Review, 10(02), 115–152.
   Google Scholar
• Yeh, S. (2007). An empirical analysis on the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles: The case of natural gas vehicles. Energy Policy, 35(11), 5865–5875.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhang, X., & Bai, X. (2017). Incentive policies from 2006 to 2016 and new energy vehicle adoption in 2010–2020 in China. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 70, 24–43.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar