The effect of model bias on Atlantic freshwater transport and implications for AMOC bi-stability

References

• Blunier, T. and Brook, E. J. 2001. Timing of millennial-scale climate change in Antarctica and Greenland during the last glacial period. Science 291, 109–112. DOI: 10.1126/science.291.5501.109.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Broecker, W. S., Bond, G., Klas, M., Bonani, G. and Wolfli, W. 1990. A salt oscillator in the glacial Atlantic? 1. The concept. Paleoceanography 5, 469–477.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bryden, H. L., King, B. A. and McCarthy, G. D. 2011. South Atlantic overturning circulation at 24 S. J. Mar. Res. 69, 38–55. DOI: 10.1357/002224011798147633.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carton, J. A. and Giese, B. S. 2008. A reanalysis of ocean climate using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA). Mon. Weather Rev. 136, 2999–3017. DOI: 10.1175/2007MWR1978.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J. L., Fichefet, T., and co-authors. 2013. Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley). book section Vol. 12, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1029–1136. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.024. Online at: www.climatechange2013.org
   Google Scholar
• Danabasoglu, G., Yeager, S. G., Bailey, D., Behrens, E., Bentsen, M. and co-authors. 2014. North Atlantic simulations in coordinated ocean-ice reference experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part I: Mean States. Ocean Modell. 73, 76–107. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.10.005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dansgaard, W., Johnsen, S. J., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Gundestrup, N. S. and co-authors. 1993. Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record. Nature 364, 218–220. DOI:10.1038/364218a0.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• de Abreu, L., Shackleton, N. J., Schönfeld, J., Hall, M. and Chapman, M. 2003. Millennial-scale oceanic climate variability off the Western Iberian margin during the last two glacial periods. Mar. Geol. 196, 1–20. DOI:10.1016/S0025-3227(03)00046-X.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• de Vries, P. and Weber, S. L. 2005. The Atlantic freshwater budget as a diagnostic for the existence of a stable shut down of the meridional overturning circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, DOI: 10.1029/2004GL021450.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Drijfhout, S. S., Weber, S. L. and van der Swaluw, E. 2011. The stability of the MOC as diagnosed from model projections for pre-industrial, present and future climates. Clim. Dyn. 37(7–8), 1575–1586. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0930-z.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Garzoli, S. L., Baringer, M. O., Dong, S., Perez, R. C. and Yao, Q. 2013. South Atlantic meridional fluxes. Deep Sea Res. Part I 71, 21–32. DOI: 10.1016/j.dsr.2012.09.003.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hansen, J., Sato, M., Hearty, P., Ruedy, R., Kelley, M. and co-authors. 2016. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: Evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 16, 3761–3812. DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Huisman, S. E., Den Toom, M., Dijkstra, H. A. and Drijfhout, S. 2010. An indicator of the multiple equilibria regime of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 40, 551–567. DOI: 10.1175/2009JPO4215.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ingleby, B. and Huddleston, M. 2007. Quality control of ocean temperature and salinity profiles: Historical and real-time data. J. Mar. Syst. 65, 158–175. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2005.11.019.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jackson, L. 2013. Shutdown and recovery of the AMOC in a coupled global climate model: the role of the advective feedback. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 1182–1188. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50289.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jackson, L., Kahana, R., Graham, T., Ringer, M. A., Woollings, T. and co-authors. 2015. Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM. Clim. Dyn. 45, 3299–3316. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2540-2.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jackson, L. C., Peterson, K. A., Roberts, C. D. and Wood, R. A. 2016. Recent slowing of Atlantic overturning circulation as a recovery from earlier strengthening. Nat. Geosci. 9, 518–522. DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2715.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lawrence, B. N., Churchill, J., Juckes, M., Kershaw, P., Pascoe, S. and co-authors. 2013. Storing and manipulating environmental big data with jasmin. In: 2013 IEEE International Conference on Big Data, IEEE, Santa Clara, CA, pp. 68–75. DOI: 10.1109/BigData.6691556.
   Google Scholar
• Liu, W. and Liu, Z. 2013. A diagnostic indicator of the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CCSM3. J. Clim. 26, 1926–1938. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00681.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liu, W., Liu, Z. and Brady, E. C. 2014. Why is the AMOC monostable in coupled general circulation models? J. Clim. 27, 2427–2443. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00264.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liu, W., Xie, S. P., Liu, Z. and Zhu, J. 2017. Overlooked possibility of a collapsed atlantic meridional overturning circulation in warming climate. Sci. Adv. 3, 1601–666. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1601666.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Madec, G. 2008. NEMO Ocean Engine, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), France.
   Google Scholar
• Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. 1988. Two stable equilibria of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Clim. 1, 841–866. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marotzke, J. 1990. Instabilities and multiple equilibria of the thermohaline circulation. PhD thesis. Christian-Albrechts-Universit{\"a}t.
   Google Scholar
• McDonagh, E. L., King, B. A., Bryden, H. L., Courtois, P., Szuts, Z. and co-authors. 2015. Continuous estimate of Atlantic oceanic freshwater flux at 26.5? n. J. Clim. 28, 8888–8906. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00519.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McDonagh, E. L. and King, B. A. 2005. Oceanic fluxes in the South Atlantic. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 35, 109–122. DOI: 10.1175/JPO-2666.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McDonagh, E. L., McLeod, P., King, B. A., Bryden, H. L. and Valdés, S. T. 2010. Circulation, heat, and freshwater transport at 36 N in the Atlantic. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 40, 2661–2678. DOI: 10.1175/2010JPO4176.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mecking, J., Drijfhout, S., Jackson, L. and Graham, T. 2016. Stable AMOC off state in an eddy-permitting coupled climate model. Clim. Dyn. 47, 2455–2470. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-2975-0.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Megann, A., Storkey, D., Aksenov, Y., Alderson, S., Calvert, D. and co-authors. 2014. GO5. 0: The joint NERC-Met Office NEMO global ocean model for use in coupled and forced applications. Geosci. Model Dev. 7, 1069–1092. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pardaens, A., Banks, H., Gregory, J. and Rowntree, P. 2003. Freshwater transports in hadcm3. Clim. Dyn. 21, 177–195. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-003-0324-6.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rahmstorf, S. 1996. On the freshwater forcing and transport of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Clim. Dyn. 12, 799–811. DOI: 10.1007/s003820050144.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reintges, A., Martin, T., Latif, M. and Keenlyside, N. S. 2016. Uncertainty in twenty-first century projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Clim. Dyn. 1–17. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3180.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Richter, I. 2015. Climate model biases in the eastern tropical oceans: Causes, impacts and ways forward. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change 6, 345–358. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.338.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Saenko, O. A., Weaver, A. J. and Gregory, J. M. 2003. On the link between the two modes of the ocean thermohaline circulation and the formation of global-scale water masses. J. Clim. 16, 2797–2801. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2797:OTLBTT>2.0.CO;2.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sijp, W. P. 2012. Characterising meridional overturning bistability using a minimal set of state variables. Clim. Dyn. 39, 2127–2142. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1249-0.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smeed, D., McCarthy, G., Cunningham, S. A., Frajka-Williams, E., Rayner, D. and co-authors. 2014. Observed decline of the Atlanticmeridional overturning circulation 2004–2012. Ocean Sci. 10, 29–38. DOI: 10.5194/os-10-29-2014.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smeed, D., et al. 2015. Atlantic meridional overturning circulation observed by the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS (RAPID-Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array-Western Boundary Time Series) array at 26N from 2004 to British Oceanographic Data Centre -- Natural Environment Research Council, UK. DOI: 10.5285/1a774e53-7383-2e9a-e053-6c86abc0d8c7.
   Google Scholar
• Stommel, H. 1961. Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes of flow. Tellus 13, 224–230.
   Google Scholar
• Stouffer, R. J., Smeed, D., McCarthy, G., Rayner, D., Moat, B. I. and co-authors. 2006. Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes. J. Clim. 19, 1365–1387. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3689.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. and Meehl, G. A. 2012. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tréguier, A. M., Deshayes, J., Lique, C., Dussin, R. and Molines, J. M. 2012. Eddy contributions to the meridional transport of salt in the North Atlantic. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 117, 978–2012. DOI: 10.1029/2012JC007927.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Valdes, P. 2011. Built for stability. Nature Geosci. 4, 414–416.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vellinga, M. and Wood, R. A. 2002. Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Clim. Change 54, 251–267. DOI: 10.1023/A:1016168827653.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang, C., Zhang, L., Lee, S. K., Wu, L. and Mechoso, C. R. 2014. A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 201–205. DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2118.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weaver, A. J., Sedláček, J., Eby, M., Alexander, K., Crespin, E. and co-authors. 2012. Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053763.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Williams, K., Williams, K. D., Harris, C. M., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Camp, J. and co-authors. 2015. The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration. Geosci. Model Dev. 8, 1509–1524. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yin, J. and Stouffer, R. J. 2007. Comparison of the stability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in two coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. J. Clim. 20, 4293–4315. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4256.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar