Reconciling model predictions with low reported cases of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: insights from Madagascar

References

• Clark A, Jit M, Warren-Gash C, et al. Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study. Lancet Glob Health. 2020;8:E1003–E1017.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• El-Sadr WM, Justman J. Africa in the path of Covid-19. N Engl J Med. 2020;383:e11.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Massinga Loembé M, Tshangela A, Salyer SJ, et al. COVID-19 in Africa: the spread and response. Nature Med. 2020;26:999–9.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nkengasong JN, Mankoula W. Looming threat of COVID-19 infection in Africa: act collectively, and fast. Lancet. 2020;395:841–842.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rosenthal PJ, Breman JG, Djimde AA, et al. COVID-19: shining the light on Africa. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2020;102:1145–1148.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Taboe BH, Salako VK, Ngonghala CN, et al. Predicting COVID-19 spread and public health needs to contain the pandemic in West-Africa. Math Biosci. 2020;328:108431.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Outbreak brief 22: COVID-19 pandemic – 16 June 2020 [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Jun 24]. Available from: https://africacdc.org/download/outbreak-brief-22-covid-19-pandemic-16-june–2020/
   Google Scholar
• Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) [Internet]. 2020. Available from: https://africacdc.org/covid–19/
   Google Scholar
• Kavanagh MM, Erondu NA, Tomori O, et al. Access to lifesaving medical resources for African countries: COVID-19 testing and response, ethics, and politics. Lancet. 2020;395:1735–1738.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Requejo J, Diaz T, Park L, et al. Assessing coverage of interventions for reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health and nutrition. BMJ. 2020;368:I6915.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Logie CH. Lessons learned from HIV can inform our approach to COVID-19 stigma. J Int AIDS Soc. 2020;23:e25504.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cabore JW, Karamagi HC, Kipruto H, et al. The potential effects of widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the World Health Organization African Region: a predictive model. BMJ Glob Health. 2020;5:e002647.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Diop BZ, Ngom M, Biyong CP, et al. The relatively young and rural population may limit the spread and severity of COVID-19 in Africa: a modelling study. BMJ Glob Health. 2020;5:e002699.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Netea MG, Domínguez-Andrés J, Barreiro LB, et al. Defining trained immunity and its role in health and disease. Nat Rev Immunol. 2020;20:375–388.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• LAJ O, Netea MG. BCG-induced trained immunity: can it offer protection against COVID-19? Nat Rev Immunol. 2020;20:335–337.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baker RE, Yang W, Vecchi GA, et al. Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Science. 2020;369:315–319.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Katz MA, Schoub BD, Heraud JM, et al. Influenza in Africa: uncovering the epidemiology of a long-overlooked disease. J Infect Dis. 2012;206:S1–S4.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moore J. What African nations are teaching the West about fighting the coronavirus. The New Yorker [ Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Jul 2]. Available from: https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-african-nations-are-teaching-the-west-about-fighting-the-coronavirus
   Google Scholar
• Senghore M, Savi MK, Gnangnon B, et al. Leveraging Africa’s preparedness towards the next phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Lancet Glob Health. 2020;8:e884–e885.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ihekweazu C, Agogo E. Africa’s response to COVID-19. BMC Med. 2020;18:151.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• World Health Organization. WHO urges caution as countries in Africa ease lockdowns. Regional Office for Africa [ Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Jul 2]. Available from: https://www.afro.who.int/news/who-urges-caution-countries-africa-ease-lockdowns
   Google Scholar
• Roche B, Garchitorena A, Roiz D. Optimal strategies for quarantine stopping in France. General expected patterns of strategies focusing on contact between age groups. medRxiv. 2020 Apr 21:20073932.
   Google Scholar
• Prem K, Cook AR, Jit M. Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data. PLoS Comput Biol. 2017;13:e1005697.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kissler SM, Tedijanto C, Goldstein E, et al. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science. 2020;368:860–868.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pearson CA, Schalkwyk CV, Foss AM, et al.; SACEMA Modelling and Analysis Response Team, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group. Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020. Eurosurveillance. 2020;25:2000543. .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Walker PGT, Whittaker C, Watson OJ, et al. The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries. Science. 2020;369:413–422.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bonds MH, Ouenzar MA, Garchitorena A, et al. Madagascar can build stronger health systems to fight plague and prevent the next epidemic. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2018;12:e0006131.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mahase E. Measles cases at highest point since 2006 as outbreaks continue to spread. BMJ. 2019;366:I5141.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Havers FP, Reed C, Lim TW, et al. Seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in six sites in the USA, March 23-May 3, 2020. JAMA Intern Med. 2020. DOI:10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.4130.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Madagascar Ministry of Health. COVID-19 – Madagascar. 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 10]. Available from: https://covid19mg.madatsara.com/en
   Google Scholar
• John Hopkins University. Johns Hopkins COVID-19 testing insights initiative [Internet]. 2020. Available from: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing
   Google Scholar
• Rasambainarivo F, Ramiadantsoa T, Randrianarisoa S, et al. COVID-19: Madagascar [Internet]. 2020. Available from: https://www.covid19mg.org/dashboard_EN.html
   Google Scholar
• Kucirka LM, Lauer SA, Laeyendecker O, et al. Variation in false-negative rate of reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction–based SARS-CoV-2 tests by time since exposure. Ann Intern Med. 2020;173(4):M20–1495.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Oran DP, Topol EJ. Prevalence of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: a narrative review. Ann Internal Med. 2020;173(5):M20–3012.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• UNICEF. Madagascar multiple indicator cluster survey version 6. 2018 [cited 2020 Jun 20]. Available from: https://mics.unicef.org/
   Google Scholar
• Ihantamalala FA, Herbreteau V, Rakotoarimanana FMJ, et al. Estimating sources and sinks of malaria parasites in Madagascar. Nat Commun. 2018;9:3897.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Google. COVID-19 community mobility reports. 2020 [cited 2020 Jun 14]. Available from: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
   Google Scholar
• World Health Organization. Advice on the use of masks in the context of COVID-19: interim guidance-2. Geneva, Switzerland, 2020; 2020 [cited 2020 Aug 15]. DOI:10.1093/jiaa077.
   Google Scholar
• Weiss DJ, Nelson A, Gibson HS, et al. A global map of travel time to cities to assess inequalities in accessibility in 2015. Nature. 2018;553:333–336.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rice BL, Annapragada AV, Baker RE, et al. High variation expected in the pace and burden of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across sub-Saharan Africa. medRxiv. 2020 July 23:20161208.
   Google Scholar
• GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet. 2018;392:1736–1788.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar