255
Views
7
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Regular articles

When does information about causal structure improve statistical reasoning?

&
Pages 625-645 | Received 07 Sep 2011, Published online: 12 Aug 2013

REFERENCES

  • Ajzen, I. (1977). Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 303–314. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.35.5.303
  • Barbey, A. K., & Sloman, S. A. (2007). Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30, 241–254. doi:10.1017/S0140525X07001653
  • Bar-Hillel, M. (1980). The base rate fallacy in probability judgements. Acta Psychologica, 44, 211–233. doi: 10.1016/0001-6918(80)90046-3
  • Brase, G. L., Fiddick, L., & Harries, C. (2006). Participant recruitment methods and statistical reasoning performance. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 59, 965–976. doi: 10.1080/02724980543000132
  • Chapman, G. B., & Liu, J. (2009). Numeracy, frequency, and Bayesian reasoning. Judgement and Decision Making, 4(1), 34–40.
  • Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1996). Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty. Cognition, 58, 1–73. doi: 10.1016/0010-0277(95)00664-8
  • Crisp, A. K., & Feeney, A. (2009). Causal conjunction fallacies: The roles of causal strength and mental resources. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 62, 2320–2337. doi: 10.1080/17470210902783638
  • Eddy, D. M. (1982). Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, (pp. 249–267). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Evans, J. St. B. T., Handley, S. J., Over, D. E., & Perham, N. (2002). Background beliefs in Bayesian inference. Memory & Cognition, 30, 179–190. doi: 10.3758/BF03195279
  • Franssens, S., & De Neys, W. (2009). The effortless nature of conflict detection during thinking. Thinking & Reasoning, 15, 105–128. doi: 10.1080/13546780802711185
  • Galesic, M., Gigerenzer, G., & Straubinger, N. (2009). Natural frequencies help older adults and people with low numeracy to evaluate medical screening tests. Medical Decision Making, 29(3), 368–371. doi: 10.1177/0272989X08329463
  • Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychological Review, 102, 684–704. doi: 10.1037/0033-295X.102.4.684
  • Gopnik, A. (2012). Causality. In P. Zelazo (Ed.), The Oxford handbook of developmental psychology, New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
  • Hayes, B. K., Newell, B. R., & Hawkins, G. E. (2013). Causal model and sampling approaches to reducing base rate neglect. In M. Knauff, M. Pauen, N. Sebanz, & I. Wachsmuth (Eds.), Proceedings of the 35th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
  • Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80, 237–251. doi: 10.1037/h0034747
  • Koehler, D. J. (1996). The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 19, 1–16. doi: 10.1017/S0140525X00041157
  • Krynski, T. R., & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2007). The role of causality in judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430–450. doi: 10.1037/0096-3445.136.3.430
  • Lewis, C., & Keren, G. (1999). On the difficulties underlying Bayesian reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 411–416. doi: 10.1037/0033-295X.106.2.411
  • Macchi, L. (1995). Pragmatic aspects of the base-rate fallacy. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 48A, 188–207. doi: 10.1080/14640749508401384
  • Macchi, L. (2000). Partitive formulation of information in probabilistic problems: Beyond heuristics and frequency format explanations. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 82, 217–236. doi: 10.1006/obhd.2000.2895
  • Newstead, S. E., Handley, S. J., Harley, C., Wright, H., & Farrelly, D. (2004). Individual differences in deductive reasoning. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 57A, 33–60. doi: 10.1080/02724980343000116
  • Pearl, J. (2000). Causality: Models, reasoning and inference, New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
  • Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., & Simonsohn, U. (2011). False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant. Psychological Science, 22, 1359–1366. doi: 10.1177/0956797611417632
  • Sirota, M., & Juanchich, M. (2011). Role of numeracy and cognitive reflection in Bayesian inference with natural frequencies. Studia Psychologica, 53(2). 151–161.
  • Sloman, S. A. (2005). Causal models: How people think about the world and its alternatives, New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
  • Sloman, S. A., Over, D. E., Slovak, L., & Stibel, J. (2003). Frequency illusions and other fallacies. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 91, 296–309. doi: 10.1016/S0749-5978(03)00021-9
  • Tversky, A., & Kahenman, D. (1980). Causal schemas in judgement under uncertainty. In M. Fishbein (Ed.), Progress in social psychology, (pp. 49–72). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982). Evidential impact of base rates. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, (pp. 153–160). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Verschueren, N., Schaeken, W., & D'Ydewalle, G. (2004). Everyday conditional reasoning with working memory preload. Proceedings of 26th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 1399–1404), Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
  • Waldmann, M. R., & Hagmayer, Y. (2013). Causal reasoning. In D. Reisberg (Ed.), Oxford handbook of cognitive psychology, New York, NY: Oxford University Press.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.