0
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

From swelling prices to shrinking sizes: evaluating the ripple effects of inflation and shrinkflation on the economic growth of BIPS countries

, , &
Received 16 Feb 2024, Accepted 24 Jul 2024, Published online: 05 Aug 2024

References

  • Adu, G., and G. Marbuah. 2011. “Determinants of Inflation in Ghana: An Empirical Investigation.” South African Journal of Economics 79 (3): 251–269. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2011.01273.x.
  • Aiyagari, S. R. 1990. “Deflating the Case for Zero Inflation.” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 14 (3): 2–11. https://doi.org/10.21034/qr.1431.
  • Anderson, T. W., and C. Hsiao. 1981. “Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 76 (375): 598–606. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1981.10477691.
  • Arellano, M., and S. Bond. 1991. “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations.” Review of Economic Studies 58 (2): 277–297.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and F. Niroomand. 1999. “Openness and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation.” Applied Economics Letters 6 (9): 557–561. https://doi.org/10.1080/135048599352872.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & M. Pourheydarian. 1990. “Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Demand for Money and Effectiveness of Fiscal and Monetary Policies.” Applied Economics 22 (7): 917–925. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849000000029.
  • Barro, R. J. 2013. “Inflation and Economic Growth.” Annals of Economics and Finance 14 (1): 121–144. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2311118.
  • Baum, C. F., S. Hurn, and J. Otero. 2021. “The Dynamics of U.S. Industrial Production: A Time-Varying Granger Causality Perspective.” Econometrics And. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.10.012.
  • Benhabib, J., and M. M. Spiegel. 2009. “Moderate Inflation and the Deflation–Depression Link.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 41 (4): 787–798. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00232.x.
  • Bick, A. 2010. “Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth in Developing Countries.” Economics Letters 108 (2): 126–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2010.04.040.
  • BIS. 2023. “Does Money Growth Help Explain the Recent Inflation Surge?” BIS Bulletin (67): 1–7. https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull67.pdf.
  • Blanchard, O. 2010. Macroeconomics. 5th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson.
  • Blundell, R., and S. Bond. 1998. “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models.” Journal of Econometrics 87 (1): 115–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8.
  • Borio, C., P. Disyatat, D. Xia, and E. Zakrajšek. 2021. “Monetary Policy, Relative Prices and Inflation Control: Flexibility Born Out of Success.” BIS Quarterly Review: 15–29. September. https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2109b.htm.
  • Breitung, J., S. Kripfganz, and K. Hayakawa. 2022. “Bias-Corrected Method of Moments Estimators for Dynamic Panel Data Models.” Econometrics and Statistics 24:116–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.07.001.
  • Bun, M. J. G., and M. A. Carree. 2005. “Bias-corrected estimation in dynamic panel data models.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 23 (2): 200–210. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500104000000532.
  • Çakır, M., and V. J. Joseph V Balagtas. 2014. “Consumer Response to Package Downsizing: Evidence from the Chicago Ice Cream Market.” Journal of Retailing 90 (1): 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretai.2013.06.002.
  • Chandon, P., and B. Wansink. 2007. “Is Obesity Caused by Calorie Underestimation? A Psychophysical Model of Meal Size Estimation.” Journal of Marketing Research 44 (1): 84–99. https://doi.org/10.1509/jmkr.44.1.84.
  • Cooley, T. F., and G. D. Hansen. 1991. “The Welfare Costs of Moderate Inflations.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 23 (3): 483–503. https://doi.org/10.2307/1992683.
  • David, D., G. P. Pedro, and H.E. Paula. 2005. “Threshold Effects in the Relationship between Inflation and Growth: A New Panel-Data Approach.” MPRA Paper 38225. Germany: University Library of Munich. https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/38225.html.
  • Dhaene, G., and K. Jochmans. 2016. “Likelihood Inference in an Autoregression with Fixed Effects.” Econometric Theory 32 (5): 1178–1215. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466615000146.
  • Dolado, J. J., and H. Lütkepohl. 1996. “Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated VAR Systems.” Econometrics Review 15 (4): 369–386. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474939608800362.
  • Dorrance, S. 1963. “The Effect of Inflation on Economic Development.” IMF Staff Papers. 10 1–47 Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
  • Duncan, O. D. 1969. “Some Linear Models for Two-Wave, Two-Variable Panel Analysis.” Psychological Bulletin 72 (3): 177. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0027876.
  • Eggoh, J. C., and M. Khan. 2014. “On the Nonlinear Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth.” Research in Economics 68 (2): 133–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2014.01.001.
  • Ghosh, A., and S. Phillips. 1998a. “Warning: Inflation may be Harmful to Your Growth.” Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund 45 (4): 672–710. https://doi.org/10.2307/3867589.
  • Ghosh, M. A. R., and M. S. Phillips. 1998b. Inflation, disinflation, and growth. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.882344.
  • Gillman, M., and M. N. Harris. 2010. “The Effect of Inflation on Growth.” The Economics of Transition 18 (4): 697–714. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0351.2009.00389.x.
  • Gillman, M., and A. Nakov. 2004. “Granger Causality of the Inflation-Growth Mirror in Accession Countries.” Economic of Transition 12 (4): 653–681. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0967-0750.2004.00198.x.
  • Gylfason, T., and T. T. Herbertsson. 2001. “Does Inflation Matter for Growth?” Japan and the World Economy 13 (4): 405–428.
  • Hausman, J. A. 1978. “Specification Tests in Econometrics.” Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 46 (6): 1251–1271. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827.
  • Hayakawa, K., and M. H. Pesaran. 2015. “Robust Standard Errors in Transformed Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectional Heteroskedasticity.” Journal of Econometrics 188 (1): 111–134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.03.042.
  • Holtz-Eakin, D., W. Newey, and H. S. Rosen. 1988. “Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data.” Econometrica 56 (6): 1371–1395. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913103.
  • Hsiao, C., M. H. Pesaran, and A. K. Tahmiscioglu. 2002. “Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Fixed Effects Dynamic Panel Data Models Covering Short Time Periods.” Journal of Econometrics 109 (1): 107–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00143-9.
  • Kremer, S., A. Bick, and D. Nautz. 2013. “Inflation and Growth: New Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis.” Empirical Economics 44 (2): 861–878. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-012-0553-9.
  • Kruiniger, H. 2018. “A Further Look at Modified ML Estimation of the Panel AR (1) Model with Fixed Effects and Arbitrary Initial Conditions. (newer Version).” ( June 2, 2018). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3186008.
  • Liberto, D. 2021. “Shrinkflation Definition.” Investopedia. Accessed June 25, 2022. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shrinkflation.aspBrown.
  • Mankiw, N. G. 2014. Principles of Macroeconomics. 7th ed. Boston, MA: Cengage Learning.
  • Mishkin, F. S. 2007. Monetary Policy and the Dual Mandate. Bridgewater, Virginia: Bridgewater College. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/mishkin20070410a.htm
  • Odhiambo, N. M. 2012. “Inflation Dynamics and Economic Growth in Tanzania: A Multivariate Time Series Model.” Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) 28 (3): 317–324. https://doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v28i3.6951.
  • Orbach, B. 2023. “Do Antitrust Enforcers know they Induce Shrinkflation?” ProMarket. https://www.promarket.org/.
  • Ozdemir, Z. A. 2010. “Dynamics of Inflation, Output Growth, and their Uncertainty in the UK: An Empirical Analysis.” The Manchester School 78 (6): 511–537. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2009.02153.x.
  • Padma, D. S. 2024. “Inflationary Realities, Shrinkflation Strategies: Business Unveiled.” European Economic Letters (EEL) 14 (1): 308–314. https://doi.org/10.52783/eel.v14i1.1027.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith. 2001. “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 16 (3): 289–326.
  • Phillips, P. C. B., S. Shi, and J. Yu. 2015. “Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory of Real Time Detectors.” International Economic Review 56 (4): 1079–1134. https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12131.
  • Quartey, P. 2010. “Price Stability and the Growth Maximizing Rate of Inflation for Ghana.” Modern Economy 1 (3): 180–194. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2010.13021.
  • Rapach, D. E. 2003. “International Evidence on the Long‑Run Impact of Inflation.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 35 (1): 23–48. https://doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2003.0005.
  • Romer, D. 1993. “Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 108: 869–903.
  • Sethy, S. K., and H. Sahoo. 2015. “Investigating the Relationship between Population and Economic Growth: An Analytical Study of India.” Indian Journal of Economics and Business 14 (2): 269–288. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2759165.
  • Shi, S., P. C. Phillips, and S. Hurn. 2018. “Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve.” Journal of Time Series Analysis 39 (6): 966–987. https://doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.12427.
  • Sidrauski, M. 1967. “Rational Choice and Patterns of Growth in a Monetary Economy.” The American Economic Review 57 (2): 534–544. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1821653.
  • Skoyles, J. 2017. Shrinkflation – Real Inflation Much Higher than Reported. https://www.goldcore.com/blog/shrinkflation-inflation.
  • Swanson, N. R. 1998. “Money and Output Viewed Through a Rolling Window.” Journal of Monetary Economics 41 (3): 455–474. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(98)00005-1.
  • Temple, J. 2000. “Inflation and Growth: Stories Short and Tall.” Journal of Economic Surveys 14 (4): 395–426. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6419.00116.
  • Thoma, M.A. 1994. “Subsample Instability and Asymmetries in Money-Income Causality.” Journal of Econometrics 64 (1–2): 279–306. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)90066-3.
  • Toda, H. Y., and P. C. B. Phillips. 1994. “Vector Autoregression and Causality: A Theoretical Overview and Simulation Study.” Econometric Reviews 13:259–285. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474939408800286.
  • Toda, H. Y., and T. Yamamoto. 1995. “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes.” Journal of Econometrics 66 (1–2): 225–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8.
  • Valdovinos, C. G. F. 2003. “Inflation and Economic Growth in the Long Run.” Economics Letters 80 (2): 167–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(03)00085-5.
  • World Economic Forum. 2022. “Shrinkflation: How Inflation is Downsizing some of your Favourite Foods.” https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/03/how-companies-are-hiding-inflation-without-charging-you-more/.
  • Yao, J., D. Wang, and G. Mortimer. 2022. “All New Smaller Size! Why Getting Less with Shrinkflation is Preferable to Paying More.” The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/all-new-smaller-size-why-getting-less-with-shrinkflation-is-preferable-to-paying-more-181326.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.