Spatial risk assessment of opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan: integrating environmental and socio-economic drivers

References

• Arino, O., J. J. Ramos Perez, V. Kalogirou, S. Bontemps, P. Defourny, and E. Van Bogaert. 2012. Global Land Cover Map for 2009 (GlobCover 2009). © European Space Agency (ESA) & Université catholique de Louvain (UCL). doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.787668.
   Google Scholar
• Baatz, M., and A. Schäpe. 2000. “Multiresolution Segmentation – An Optimization Approach for High Quality Multi-Scale Image Segmentation.” In Angewandte Geographische Informationsverarbeitung, edited by J. Strobl, T. Blaschke, and G. Griesebner, 12–23. Heidelberg: Wichmann-Verlag.
   Google Scholar
• Birkmann, J., O. A. Cardona, L. Carreño, A. Barbat, M. Pelling, S. Schneiderbauer, S. Kienberger, et al. 2013. “Framing Vulnerability, Risk and Societal Responses: The MOVE Framework.” Natural Hazards 67 (2): 193–211. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0558-5. doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-0558-5
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Center for International Earth Science Information Network – CIESIN – Columbia University, International Food Policy Research Institute – IFPRI, The World Bank, and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical – CIAT. 2011. Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1): Urban Extents Grid. Palisades, NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC).
   Google Scholar
• Drăguţ, L., O. Csillik, C. Eisank, and D. Tiede. 2014. “Automated Parameterisation for Multi-Scale Image Segmentation on Multiple Layers.” ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 88: 119–127. doi: 10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2013.11.018
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 2000. The EcoCrop Database. Rome.
   Google Scholar
• FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 2012. Harmonized World Soil Database (version 1.2), Food Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy and IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. http://webarchive.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/External-World-soil-database/HTML/.
   Google Scholar
• Farrell, G. 1998. “A Global Empirical review of Drug Crop Eradication and United Nations Crop Substitution and Alternative Development Strategies.” Journal of Drug Issues 28 (2): 395–436. doi: 10.1177/002204269802800207
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goodhand, J. 2005. “Frontiers and Wars: the Opium Economy in Afghanistan.” Journal of Agrarian Change 5 (2): 191–216. doi: 10.1111/j.1471-0366.2005.00099.x
   Google Scholar
• Hewitt, K. 1983. Interpretations of Calamity: From the Viewpoint of Human Ecology. Boston, MA: Allen & Unwin.
   Google Scholar
• Hijmans, R. J., S. E. Cameron, J. L. Parra, P. G. Jones, and A. Jarvis. 2005. “Very High Resolution Interpolated Climate Surfaces for Global Land Areas.” International Journal of Climatology 25: 1965–1978. doi: 10.1002/joc.1276
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hijmans, R. J., L. Guarino, M. Cruz, and E. Rojas. 2001. “Computer Tools for Spatial Analysis of Plant Genetic Resources Data. 1. DIVA-GIS.” Plant Genetic Resources Newsletter 127: 15–19.
   Google Scholar
• Hinkel, J. 2011. “Indicators of Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity: Towards a Clarification of the Science–Policy Interface.” Global Environmental Change 21: 198–208. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.08.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012. “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation.” In A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by C. B., Field, V. Barros, T. F., Stocker, D., Qin, D. J., Dokken, K. L., Ebi, M. D., Mastrandrea, et al., 582. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2014. “Summary for Policymakers.” In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by C. B., Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, et al., 1–32. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Jarvis A., H. I. Reuter, A. Nelson, and E. Guevara. 2008. Hole-Filled Seamless SRTM Data V4, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org.
   Google Scholar
• Kienberger, S., and M. Hagenlocher. 2014. “Spatial-Explicit Modeling of Social Vulnerability to Malaria in East Africa.” International Journal of Health Geographics 13: 29. http://ij-healthgeographics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1476-072X-13-29. doi: 10.1186/1476-072X-13-29
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lang, S., S. Kienberger, D. Tiede, M. Hagenlocher, and L. Pernkopf. 2014. “Geons – Domain-Specific Regionalization of Space.” Cartography and Geographic Information Science 41 (3): 214–226. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15230406.2014.902755. doi: 10.1080/15230406.2014.902755
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lim, T. K. 2013. Edible Medicinal and Non-Medicinal Plants. 943. 5 vols, Fruits. Dordrecht: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Mansfield, D. 2004. “What is Driving Opium Poppy Cultivation? Decision Making Amongst Opium Poppy Cultivators in Afghanistan in the 2003/4 Growing Season.” Paper for the UNODC/ONDCP Second Technical Conference on Drug Control Research, July 19–21. http://www.davidmansfield.org/data/Field_Work/UK/FinalReport0405dm.doc
   Google Scholar
• Mansfield, D. 2005. “Exploring the ‘Shades of Grey’: An Assessment of the Factors Influencing Decisions to Cultivate Opium Poppy in 2005/06.” A Report for the Afghan Drugs Inter Departmental Unit of the UK Government. http://www.davidmansfield.org/data/Field_Work/UK/Final2005Drivers.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Mansfield, D. 2008. Water Management, Livestock and the Opium Economy. Resurgence and Reductions: Explanations for Changing Levels of Opium Poppy Cultivation in Nangarhar and Ghor in 2006–07. Kabul: AREU.
   Google Scholar
• Mansfield, D., and P. Fishstein. 2013. Eyes Wide Shut: Counter-Narcotics in Transition. Afghanistan. Briefing Paper. Kabul: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit.
   Google Scholar
• Mansfield, D., and P. Fishstein. 2016. Moving with the Times: How Opium Poppy Cultivation has Adapted to the Changing Environment in Afghanistan. Watching Brief. Kabul: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit.
   Google Scholar
• Mansfield, D., and A. Pain. 2007. Evidence from the Field: Understanding Changing Levels of Opium Poppy Cultivation. Afghanistan. Briefing Paper. Kabul: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit.
   Google Scholar
• Morrison, S. 1997. “The Dynamics of Illicit Drugs Production: Future Sources and Threats.” Crime, Law and Social Change 27 (2): 121–138. doi: 10.1023/A:1008242117832
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nelson, A. 2008. Estimated Travel Time to the Nearest City of 50,000 or More People in Year 2000. Ispra: Global Environment Monitoring Unit – Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.
   Google Scholar
• OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2008. “Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide.” http://www.oecd.org/std/42495745.pdf .
   Google Scholar
• Pain, A. 2007. Water Management, Livestock and the Opium Economy: The Spread of Opium Poppy Cultivation in Balkh. Kabul: AREU.
   Google Scholar
• Parenti, C. 2015. “Flower of War: An Environmental History of Opium Poppy in Afghanistan.” SAIS Review of International Affairs 35 (1): 183–200. doi: 10.1353/sais.2015.0000
   Google Scholar
• Raleigh, C., A. Linke, H. Hegre, and J. Karlsen. 2010. “Introducing ACLED-Armed Conflict Location and Event Data.” Journal of Peace Research 47 (5): 651–660. doi: 10.1177/0022343310378914
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rout, B. 2008. Water Management, Livestock and the Opium Economy. How the Water Flows: A Typology of Irrigation Systems in Afghanistan. Kabul: AREU.
   Google Scholar
• Saaty, T. L. 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. New York: McGraw-Hill.
   Google Scholar
• Sader, S. A. 1990. “Remote Sensing of Narcotic Crops with Special Reference to Techniques for Detection and Monitoring of Poppy Production in Afghanistan.” Accessed July 10 2014. http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNABT431.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Simon, J. E., A. F. Chadwick, and L. E. Craker. 1984. Herbs: An Indexed Bibliography. 1971–1980. The Scientific Literature on Selected Herbs, and Aromatic and Medicinal Plants of the Temperate Zone. 770. Hamden, CT: Archon Books.
   Google Scholar
• Tiede, D. 2014. “A New Geospatial Overlay Method for the Analysis and Visualization of Spatial Change Patterns Using Object-Oriented Data Modeling Concepts.” Cartography and Geographic Information Science 41, 227–234. doi: 10.1080/15230406.2014.901900
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• UNODC (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime). 2011. Statistical Analysis of Risk Factors for Opium Poppy Growing in Myanmar. Analysis with Logistic and Decision-Tree Models. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. June 2011.
   Google Scholar
• UNODC (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime). 2012. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2012. Vienna: UNODC.
   Google Scholar
• UNODC (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime). 2014. “Afghanistan: Opium Survey 2014 – Cultivation and Production.” Ministry of Counter Narcotics, Afghanistan and United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Vienna, December 2014. http://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghan-opium-survey-2014.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• UNODC (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime). 2015. “Afghanistan: Opium Survey 2014 – Socio-economic Analysis.” Ministry of Counter Narcotics, Afghanistan and United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Vienna, March 2015. https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghanistan_Opium_Survey_Socio-economic_analysis_2014_web.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Windle, J. 2016. Suppressing Illicit Opium Production: Successful Intervention in Asia and the Middle East. London: IB Tauris.
   Google Scholar
• Windle, J., and G. Farrell. 2012. “Popping the Balloon Effect: Assessing Drug Law Enforcement in Terms of Displacement, Diffusion and the Containment Hypothesis.” Substance Use and Misuse 47 (8/9): 868–876. doi: 10.3109/10826084.2012.663274
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wisner, B., P. Blaikie, T. Cannon, and I. Davis. 2004. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. London: Routledge.
   Google Scholar