Statistical analysis of factors driving surface ozone variability over continental South Africa

References

• Abdul-Wahab SA, Bakheit CS, Al-Alawi SM. 2005. Principal component and multiple regression analysis in modelling of ground-level ozone and factors affecting its concentrations. Environ Model Softw. 20(10):1263–1271. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.09.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Achen CH. 2001. Why lagged dependent variables can suppress the explanatory power of other independent variables. Ann Arbor. 1001:41248–48106.
   Google Scholar
• Awang NR, Ramli NA, Shith S, Zainordin NS, Manogaran H. 2018. Transformational characteristics of ground-level ozone during high particulate events in urban area of Malaysia. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health. 11(6):715–727. doi:10.1007/s11869-018-0578-0.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Awang NR, Ramli NA, Yahaya AS, Elbayoumi M. 2015. Multivariate methods to predict ground level ozone during daytime, nighttime, and critical conversion time in urban areas. Atmos Pollut Res. 6(5):726–734. doi:10.5094/APR.2015.081.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baertsch-Ritter N, Keller J, Dommen J, Prevot A. 2004. Effects of various meteorological conditions and spatial emission resolutions on the ozone concentration and ROG/NOx limitation in the Milan area (I). Atmos Chem Phys. 4(2):423–438. doi:10.5194/acp-4-423-2004.
   Google Scholar
• Bertram T, Thornton J. 2009. Toward a general parameterization of N2O5 reactivity on aqueous particles: the competing effects of particle liquid water, nitrate and chloride. Atmos Chem Phys. 9(21):8351–8363. doi:10.5194/acp-9-8351-2009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bloomer BJ, Stehr JW, Piety CA, Salawitch RJ, Dickerson R. 2009. R.: observed relationships of ozone air pollution with temperature and emissions. Geophys Res Lett. 36(9). doi:10.1029/2009GL037308.
   Google Scholar
• Bloomfield P, Royle JA, Steinberg LJ, Yang Q. 1996. Accounting for meteorological effects in measuring urban ozone levels and trends. Atmos Environ. 30(17):3067–3077. doi:10.1016/1352-2310(95)00347-9.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Camalier L, Cox W, Dolwick P. 2007. The effects of meteorology on ozone in urban areas and their use in assessing ozone trends. Atmos Environ. 41(33):7127–7137. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.04.061.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cardelino C, Chang M, John JS, Murphey B, Cordle J, Ballagas R, Patterson L, Powell K, Stogner J, Zimmer-Dauphinee S. 2001. Ozone predictions in Atlanta, Georgia: analysis of the 1999 ozone season. J Air Waste Manage Assoc. 51(8):1227–1236. doi:10.1080/10473289.2001.10464342.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cobourn WG. 2007. Accuracy and reliability of an automated air quality forecast system for ozone in seven Kentucky metropolitan areas. Atmos Environ. 41(28):5863–5875. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.03.024.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Combrink J, Diab R, Sokolic F, Brunke E. 1995. Relationship between surface, free tropospheric and total column ozone in two contrasting areas in South Africa. Atmos Environ. 29(6):685–691. doi:10.1016/1352-2310(94)00313-A.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Comrie AC. 1997. Comparing neural networks and regression models for ozone forecasting. Air Waste Manage. Assoc. 47(6):653–663. doi:10.1080/10473289.1997.10463925.
   Google Scholar
• Cooper OR, Gao RS, Tarasick D, Leblanc T, Sweeney C. 2012. Long‐term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, 1990–2010. J Geophys Res, 117: D22307. doi:10.1029/2012JD018261.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Davis J, Cox W, Reff A, Dolwick P. 2011. A comparison of CMAQ-based and observation-based statistical models relating ozone to meteorological parameters. Atmos Environ. 45(20):3481–3487. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.12.060.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dawson JP, Adams PJ, Pandis SN. 2007. Sensitivity of ozone to summertime climate in the eastern USA: A modeling case study. Atmos Environ. 41(7):1494–1511. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.10.033.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Diab R, Thompson A, Mari K, Ramsay L, Coetzee G. 2004. Tropospheric ozone climatology over Irene, South Africa, from 1990 to 1994 and 1998 to 2002. J Geophys Res. 109(D20). doi:10.1029/2004JD004793.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dominick D, Juahir H, Latif MT, Zain SM, Aris AZ. 2012. Spatial assessment of air quality patterns in Malaysia using multivariate analysis. Atmos Environ. 60:172–181. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.06.021.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dueñas C, Fernández MC, Cañete S, Carretero J, Liger E. 2002. Assessment of ozone variations and meteorological effects in an urban area in the Mediterranean Coast. Sci Total Environ. 299(1–3):97–113. doi:10.1016/S0048-9697(02)00251-6.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fiore AM, Jacob DJ, Logan JA, Yin JH. 1998. Long‐term trends in ground level ozone over the contiguous United States, 1980–1995. J Geophys Res. 103(D1):1471–1480. doi:10.1029/97JD03036.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gardner M, Dorling S. 2000. Meteorologically adjusted trends in UK daily maximum surface ozone concentrations. Atmos Environ. 34(2):171–176. doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(99)00315-5.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gardner MW, Dorling S. 1998. Artificial neural networks (the multilayer perceptron)—a review of applications in the atmospheric sciences. Atmos Environ. 32(14–15):2627–2636. doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(97)00447-0.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gorai A, Tuluri F, Tchounwou P, Ambinakudige S. 2015. Influence of local meteorology and NO2 conditions on ground-level ozone concentrations in the eastern part of Texas, USA, Air Quality. Atmos Health. 8(1):81–96. doi:10.1007/s11869-014-0276-5.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Guardani R, Aguiar JL, Nascimento CA, Lacava CI, Yanagi Y. 2003. Ground-level ozone mapping in large urban areas using multivariate statistical analysis: application to the Sao Paulo Metropolitan area. J Air Waste Manage Assoc. 53(5):553–559. doi:10.1080/10473289.2003.10466188.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 1990. Generalized additive models. Wiley Online Library.
   Google Scholar
• Hayn M, Beirle S, Hamprecht FA, Platt U, Menze BH, Wagner T. 2009. Analysing spatio-temporal patterns of the global NO2-distribution retrieved from GOME satellite observations using a generalized additive model. Atmos Chem Phys. 9(17):6459–6477. doi:10.5194/acp-9-6459-2009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hubbard MC, Cobourn WG. 1998. Development of a regression model to forecast ground-level ozone concentration in Louisville, KY. Atmos Environ. 32(14–15):2637–2647. doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(97)00444-5.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jaars K, Beukes JP, van Zyl PG, Venter AD, Josipovic M, Pienaar JJ, Vakkari V, Aaltonen H, Laakso H, Kulmala M, et al. 2014. Ambient aromatic hydrocarbon measurements at Welgegund, South Africa. Atmos Chem Phys. 14(13):7075–7089. doi:10.5194/acp-14-7075-2014.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jaars K, van Zyl PG, Beukes JP, Hellén H, Vakkari V, Josipovic M, Venter AD, Räsänen M, Knoetze L, Cilliers DP, et al. 2016. Measurements of biogenic volatile organic compounds at a grazed savannah grassland agricultural landscape in South Africa. Atmos Chem Phys. 16(24):15665–15688. doi:10.5194/acp-16-15665-2016.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jacob DJ, Logan JA, Gardner GM, Yevich RM, Spivakovsky CM, Wofsy SC, Sillman S, Prather MJ. 1993. Factors regulating ozone over the United States and its export to the global atmosphere. J Geophys Res. 98(D8):14817–14826. doi:10.1029/98JD01224.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jia L, Xu Y. 2014. Effects of relative humidity on ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation from the photooxidation of benzene and ethylbenzene. Aerosol Sci and Tech. 48(1):1–12. doi: 10.1080/02786826.2013.847269.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kavassalis SC, Murphy JG. 2017. Understanding ozone‐meteorology correlations: A role for dry deposition. Geophys Res Lett. 44(6):2922–2931. doi:10.1002/2016GL071791.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Laban TL, van Zyl PG, Beukes JP, Vakkari V, Jaars K, Borduas-Dedekind N, Josipovic M, Thompson AM, Kulmala M, Laakso L. 2018. Seasonal influences on surface ozone variability in continental South Africa and implications for air quality. Atmos Chem Phys Discuss. 18(20):15491–15514. doi:10.5194/acp-2017-1115.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lin Y, Cobourn WG. 2007. Fuzzy system models combined with nonlinear regression for daily ground-level ozone predictions. Atmos Environ. 41(16):3502–3513. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.11.060.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lourens AS, Beukes JP, Van Zyl PG, Fourie GD, Burger JW, Pienaar JJ, Read CE, Jordaan JH. 2011. Spatial and temporal assessment of gaseous pollutants in the Highveld of South Africa. S Afr J Sci. 107(1/2):1–8. doi:10.4102/sajs.v107i1/2.269.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lourens ASM, Butler TM, Beukes JP, Van Zyl PG, Beirle S, Wagner TK, Heue K-P, Pienaar JJ, Fourie GD, Lawrence MG. 2012. Re-evaluating the NO2 hotspot over the South African Highveld. South African J Sci. doi:10.4102/sajs.v108i11/12.1146.
   Google Scholar
• Melkonyan A, Kuttler W. 2012. Long-term analysis of NO, NO2 and O3 concentrations in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Atmos Environ. 60:316–326. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.06.048.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mikkonen S, Korhonen H, Romakkaniemi S, Smith JN, Joutsensaari J, Lehtinen KEJ, Hamed A, Breider TJ, Birmili W, Spindler G, et al. 2011. Meteorological and trace gas factors affecting the number concentration of atmospheric Aitken (Dp= 50 nm) particles in the continental boundary layer: pparameterization using a multivariate mixed effects model. Geosci Model Dev. 4(1):1–13. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-1-2011.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Milanchus ML, Rao ST, Zurbenko IG. 1998. Evaluating the effectiveness of ozone management efforts in the presence of meteorological variability. J Air Waste Manage Assoc. 48(3):201–215. doi:10.1080/10473289.1998.10463673.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Neter J, Kutner M, Nachtsheim C, Wasserman W. 1996. Applied linear statistical models. 4th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill; p. 283.
   Google Scholar
• NRC. 1991. Rethinking the ozone problem in urban and regional air pollution. Washington (DC): The National Academies Press; p. 524.
   Google Scholar
• NRC. 2008. Estimating mortality risk reduction and economic benefits from controlling ozone air pollution. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/12198.
   Google Scholar
• Ooka R, Khiem M, Hayami H, Yoshikado H, Huang H, Kawamoto Y. 2011. Influence of meteorological conditions on summer ozone levels in the central Kanto area of Japan. Procedia Environ. Sci. 4:138–150. doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2011.03.017.
   Google Scholar
• Ordonez C, Mathis H, Furger M, Henne S, Hüglin C, Staehelin J, Prévôt A. 2005. Changes of daily surface ozone maxima in Switzerland in all seasons from 1992 to 2002 and discussion of summer 2003. Atmos Chem Phys. 5(5):1187–1203. doi:10.5194/acp-5-1187-2005.
   Google Scholar
• Otero N, Sillmann J, Schnell JL, Rust HW, Butler T. 2016. Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe. Environ Res Lett. 11(2):024005. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pearce JL, Beringer J, Nicholls N, Hyndman RJ, Tapper NJ. 2011. Quantifying the influence of local meteorology on air quality using generalized additive models. Atmos Environ. 45(6):1328–1336. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.11.051.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Porter WC, Heald CL, Cooley D, Russell B. 2015. Investigating the observed sensitivities of air-quality extremes to meteorological drivers via quantile regression. Atmos Chem Phys. 15(18):10349–10366. doi:10.5194/acp-15-10349-2015.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• R Development Core Team. 2009. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. [accessed 2018 Mar 12]. http://www.R-project.org.
   Google Scholar
• Rao ST, Zurbenko IG. 1994. Detecting and tracking changes in ozone air quality. Air Waste. 44(9):1089–1092. doi:10.1080/10473289.1994.10467303.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rasmussen D, Fiore A, Naik V, Horowitz L, McGinnis S, Schultz M. 2012. Surface ozone-temperature relationships in the eastern US: A monthly climatology for evaluating chemistry-climate models. Atmos Environ. 47:142–153. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.11.021.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ryan WF. 1995. Forecasting severe ozone episodes in the Baltimore metropolitan area. Atmos Environ. 29(17):2387–2398. doi:10.1016/1352-2310(94)00302-2.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schlink U, Herbarth O, Richter M, Dorling S, Nunnari G, Cawley G, Pelikan E. 2006. Statistical models to assess the health effects and to forecast ground-level ozone. Environ Model Softw. 21(4):547–558. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.12.002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Seinfeld JH, Pandis SN. 2006. Atmospheric chemistry and physics: from air pollution to climate change. Vol. xxviii, 2nd ed. New York: Wiley. p. 1202
   Google Scholar
• Sillman S. 1999. The relation between ozone, NOx and hydrocarbons in urban and polluted rural environments. Atmos Environ. 33(12):1821–1845. doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00345-8.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sillman S, Samson PJ. 1995. Impact of temperature on oxidant photochemistry in urban, polluted rural and remote environments. J Geophys Res Atmospheres. 100(D6):11497–11508. doi:10.1029/94JD02146.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stauffer RM, Thompson AM, Oltmans SJ, Johnson BJ. 2017. Tropospheric ozonesonde profiles at long‐term US monitoring sites: 2. Links between Trinidad Head, CA, profile clusters and inland surface ozone measurements. J Geophys Res. 122:1261–1280.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tawfik AB, Steiner AL. 2013. A proposed physical mechanism for ozone-meteorology correlations using land–atmosphere coupling regimes. Atmos Environ. 72:50–59. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.03.002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thompson AM, Balashov NV, Witte JC, Coetzee JGR, Thouret V, Posny F. 2014. Tropospheric ozone increases over the southern Africa region: bellwether for rapid growth in Southern Hemisphere pollution? Atmos Chem Phys. 14(18):9855–9869. doi:10.5194/acp-14-9855-2014.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thompson AM, Stauffer RM, Miller SK, Martins DK, Joseph E, Weinheimer AJ, Diskin GS. 2015. Ozone profiles in the Baltimore-Washington region (2006–2011): satellite comparisons and DISCOVER-AQ observations. J Atmos Chem. 72(3–4):393–422. doi:10.1007/s10874-014-9283-z.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thompson ML, Reynolds J, Cox LH, Guttorp P, Sampson PD. 2001. A review of statistical methods for the meteorological adjustment of tropospheric ozone. Atmos Environ. 35(3):617–630. doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(00)00261-2.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tiitta P, Vakkari V, Croteau P, Beukes JP, van Zyl PG, Josipovic M, Venter AD, Jaars K, Pienaar JJ, Ng NL, et al. 2014. Chemical composition, main sources and temporal variability of PM1 aerosols in southern African grassland. Atmos Chem Phys. 14(4):1909–1927. doi:10.5194/acp-14-1909-2014.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tsakiri KG, Zurbenko IG. 2011. Prediction of ozone concentrations using atmospheric variables. Air Qual Atmos Health. 4(2):111–120. doi:10.1007/s11869-010-0084-5.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vakkari V, Beukes JP, Laakso H, Mabaso D, Pienaar JJ, Kulmala M, Laakso L. 2013. Long-term observations of aerosol size distributions in semi-clean and polluted savannah in South Africa. Atmos Chem Phys. 13(4):1751–1770. doi:10.5194/acp-13-1751-2013.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Venter AD, Vakkari V, Beukes JP, Van Zyl PG, Laakso H, Mabaso D, Tiitta P, Josipovic M, Kulmala M, Pienaar JJ, et al. 2012. An air quality assessment in the industrialised western Bushveld Igneous Complex, South Africa. S Afr J Sci. 108(9/10). doi:10.4102/sajs.v108i9/10.1059.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wild O. 2007. Modelling the global tropospheric ozone budget: exploring the variability in current models. Atmos Chem Phys. 7(10):2643–2660. doi:10.5194/acp-7-2643-2007.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wood SN. 2017. Generalized additive models: an introduction with R. Boca Raton, FL: CRC press.
   Google Scholar
• Zheng J, Swall JL, Cox WM, Davis JM. 2007. Interannual variation in meteorologically adjusted ozone levels in the eastern United States: A comparison of two approaches. Atmos Environ. 41(4):705–716. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.09.010.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zunckel M, Venjonoka K, Pienaar JJ, Brunke EG, Pretorius O, Koosialee A, Raghunandan A, van Tienhoven AM. 2004. Surface ozone over southern Africa: synthesis of monitoring results during the cross border air pollution impact assessment project. Atmos Environ. 38:6139–6147. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.07.029
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar