“You’ve Come a Long Way, Baby”: The Convergence in Age Patterns of Lung Cancer Mortality by Sex, United States, 1959–2013

References

• Abdullatif, V. N., and A. Noymer. 2016. Clostridium difficile infection: An emerging cause of death in the twenty-first century. Biodemography and Social Biology 62 (2):198–207. doi:10.1080/19485565.2016.1172957.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Banks, E., G. Joshy, M. F. Weber, B. Liu, R. Grenfell, S. Egger, E. Paige, A. D. Lopez, F. Seitas, and V. Beral. 2015. Tobacco smoking and all-cause mortality in a large Australian cohort study: Findings from a mature epidemic with current low smoking prevalence. BMC Medicine 13 (38):10. doi:10.1186/s12916-015-0281-z.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boffetta, P., A. Agudo, W. Ahrens, E. Benhamou, S. Benhamou, S. C. Darby, G. Ferro, C. Fortes, C. A. Gonzalez, K.-H. Jöckel, M. Krauss, L. Kreienbrock, M. Kreuzer, A. Mendes, F. Merletti, F. Nyberg, G. Pershagen, H. Pohlabeln, E. Riboli, G. Schmid, L. Simonato, J. Trédaniel, E. Whitley, H.-E. Wichmann, C. Winck, P. Zambon, and R. Saracci. 1998. Multicenter case-control study of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and lung cancer in Europe. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 90 (19):1440–50. doi:10.1093/jnci/90.19.1440.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Brandt, A. M. 2007. The cigarette century: The rise, fall, and deadly persistence of the product that defined America. New York: Basic Books.
   Google Scholar
• Bronte-Stewart, B. 1961. Cigarette smoking and ischaemic heart disease. British Medical Journal 1 (5223):379–84. doi:10.1136/bmj.1.5223.379.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Burns, D. M., L. Lee, L. Z. Shen, E. Gilpin, H. D. Tolley, J. Vaughn, and T. G. Shanks. 1997. Cigarette smoking behavior in the United States. In Changes in cigarette-related disease risks and their implications for prevention and control, eds. D. M. Burns, L. Garfinkel, and J. M. Samet, chap. 2, 13–112. Bethesda, MD: National Cancer Institute. http://cancercontrol.cancer.gov/brp/tcrb/monographs/8/m8_2.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Carter, B. D., C. C. Abnet, D. Feskanich, N. D. Freedman, P. Hartge, C. E. Lewis, J. K. Ockene, R. L. Prentice, F. E. Speizer, M. J. Thun, and E. J. Jacobs. 2015. Smoking and mortality—Beyond established causes. New England Journal of Medicine 372 (7):631–40. doi:10.1056/NEJMsa1407211.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Choe, M. K., S. Thapa, C. Podhisita, C. Raymundo, H. S. Lin, and S. Achmad. 2004. The teen tobacco epidemic in Asia: Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand. Journal of Youth Studies 7 (1):73–87. doi:10.1080/1367626042000209967.
   Google Scholar
• Christopoulou, R., and D. R. Lillard. 2016. A novel indicator of life-course smoking prevalence in the United States combining popularity, duration, quantity, and quality of smoking. American Journal of Public Health 106 (7):1329–35. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2016.303130.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cuyler, H. E., and D. Horn. 1954. The relationship between human smoking habits and death rates: A follow-up study of 187,766 men. Journal of the American Medical Association 155 (15):1316–28. doi:10.1001/jama.1954.03690330020006.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• DeGroot, M. H., and M. J. Schervish. 2002. Probability and statistics, 3rd ed. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
   Google Scholar
• Dix, D., P. Cohen, and J. Flannery. 1980. On the role of aging in cancer incidence. Journal of Theoretical Biology 83 (1):163–73. doi:10.1016/0022-5193(80)90377-X.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Doll, R. 1987. Major epidemics of the 20th century: From coronary thrombosis to AIDS. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 150 (4):373–95. doi:10.2307/2982044.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gregg, E. W., Y. J. Cheng, S. Saydah, C. Cowie, S. Garfield, L. Geiss, and L. Barker. 2012. Trends in death rates among U.S. adults with and without diabetes between 1997 and 2006. Diabetes Care 35 (6):1252–57. doi:10.2337/dc11-1162.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ho, J. Y., and A. Fenelon. 2015. The contribution of smoking to educational gradients in U.S. life expectancy. Journal of Health and Social Behavior 56 (3):307–22. doi:10.1177/0022146515592731.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holford, T. R., D. T. Levy, L. A. McKay, L. Clarke, B. Racine, R. Meza, S. Land, J. Jeon, and E. J. Feuer. 2014a. Patterns of birth cohort-specific smoking histories, 1965–2009. American Journal of Preventive Medicine 46 (2):e31–e37. doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2013.10.022.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holford, T. R., R. Meza, K. E. Warner, C. Meernik, J. Jeon, S. H. Moolgavkar, and D. T. Levy. 2014b. Tobacco control and the reduction in smoking-related premature deaths in the United States, 1964–2012. Journal of the American Medical Association 311 (2):164–71. doi:10.1001/jama.2013.285112.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Honoré, B. E., and A. Lleras-Muney. 2006. Bounds in competing risks models and the war on cancer. Econometrica 74 (6):1675–98. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00722.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Horiuchi, S. 2003. Interspecies differences in the life span distribution: Humans versus invertebrates. Population and Development Review 29 (Suppl):127–51.
   Google Scholar
• Horiuchi, S., and J. R. Wilmoth. 1997. Age patterns of the life table aging rate for major causes of death in Japan, 1951–1990. Journal of Gerontology: Biological Sciences 52A(1):B67–B77.
   Google Scholar
• Human Mortality Database. U.S.A. Complete Data Series: Exposure-to-risk. http://www.mortality.org/ ( accessed January 15, 2015).
   Google Scholar
• Jacobs, E. J., C. C. Newton, B. D. Carter, D. Feskanich, N. D. Freedman, R. L. Prentice, and W. D. Flanders. 2015. What proportion of cancer deaths in the contemporary United States is attributable to cigarette smoking? Annals of Epidemiology 25 (3):179–182.e1. doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2014.11.008.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jha, P., C. Ramasundarahettige, V. Landsman, B. Rostron, M. Thun, R. N. Anderson, T. McAfee, and R. Peto. 2013. 21st-Century hazards of smoking and benefits of cessation in the United States. New England Journal of Medicine 368 (4):341–50. doi:10.1056/NEJMsa1211128.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jöckel, K.-H., H. Pohlabeln, W. Ahrens, and M. Krauss. 1998. Environmental tobacco smoke and lung cancer. Epidemiology 9 (6):672–75. doi:10.1097/00001648-199811000-00020.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kvålseth, T. O. 1985. Cautionary note about R2. American Statistician 39 (4):279–85.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Manton, K. G., I. Akushevich, and J. Kravchenko. 2009. Cancer mortality and morbidity patterns in the U.S. population: An interdisciplinary approach. New York: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and J. W. Vaupel. 1986. Alternative models for the heterogeneity of mortality risks among the aged. Journal of the American Statistical Association 81 (395):635–44. doi:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478316.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Menke, A., S. Casagrande, L. Geiss, and C. C. Cowie. 2015. Prevalence of and trends in diabetes among adults in the United States, 1988–2012. Journal of the American Medical Association 314 (10):1021–29. doi:10.1001/jama.2015.10029.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moolgavkar, S. H., T. R. Holford, D. T. Levy, C. Y. Kong, M. Foy, L. Clarke, J. Jeon, W. D. Hazelton, R. Meza, F. Schultz, W. McCarthy, R. Boer, O. Gorlova, G. S. Gazelle, M. Kimmel, P. M. McMahon, H. J. de Koning, and E. J. Feuer. 2012. Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the United States during 1975–2000. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 104 (7):541–48. doi:10.1093/jnci/djs136.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• National Center for Health Statistics. 2014. Mortality multiple cause-of-death data files. National Center for Health Statistics. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality_public_use_data.htm ( accessed January 15, 2015).
   Google Scholar
• Ní Bhrolcháin, M. 1992. Period paramount? A critique of the cohort approach to fertility. Population and Development Review 18 (4):599–629. doi:10.2307/1973757.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pampel, F. C. 2002. Cigarette use and the narrowing sex differential in mortality. Population and Development Review 28 (1):77–104. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2002.00077.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pampel, F. C. 2003. Declining sex differences in mortality from lung cancer in high-income nations. Demography 40 (1):45–65. doi:10.1353/dem.2003.0007.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pearl, R. 1929. A note on the association of diseases. Science 70 (1808):191–92. doi:10.1126/science.70.1808.191-a.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Preston, S. H. 1976. Mortality patterns in national populations: With special reference to recorded causes of death. New York: Academic Press.
   Google Scholar
• Preston, S. H. 1987. Relations among standard epidemiologic measures in a population. American Journal of Epidemiology 126 (2):336–45. doi:10.1093/aje/126.2.336.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Preston, S. H., and H. Wang. 2006. Sex mortality differentials in the United States: The role of cohort smoking patterns. Demography 43 (4):631–46. doi:10.1353/dem.2006.0037.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Retherford, R. D. 1972. Tobacco smoking and the sex mortality differential. Demography 9 (2):203–16. doi:10.2307/2060633.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rogers, R. G., R. A. Hummer, P. M. Krueger, and F. C. Pampel. 2005. Mortality attributable to cigarette smoking in the United States. Population and Development Review 31 (2):259–92. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00065.x.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Russek, H. I., B. L. Zohman, and V. J. Dorset. 1955. Effects of tobacco and whiskey on the cardiovascular system. Journal of the American Medical Association 157 (7):563–68. doi:10.1001/jama.1955.02950240001001.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schoen, R. 1970. The geometric mean of the age-specific death rates as a summary index of mortality. Demography 7 (3):317–24. doi:10.2307/2060150.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Siegel, R. L., E. J. Jacobs, C. C. Newton, D. Feskanich, N. D. Freedman, R. L. Prentice, and A. Jemal. 2015. Deaths due to cigarette smoking for 12 smoking-related cancers in the United States. JAMA Internal Medicine 175 (9):1574–76. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2015.2398.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Steinsaltz, D. R., and K. W. Wachter. 2006. Understanding mortality rate deceleration and heterogeneity. Mathematical Population Studies 13 (1):19–37. doi:10.1080/08898480500452117.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tate, S., J. J. Namkung, and A. Noymer. 2016. Did the 1918 influenza cause the twentieth century cardiovascular mortality epidemic in the United States? PeerJ 4:e2531. doi:10.7717/peerj.2531.
   Google Scholar
• Tobacco Free Initiative. 2015. Global trends and projections for tobacco smoking, 2000–2025. World Health Organization. http://www.who.int/entity/tobacco/publications/surveillance/prevalencetrendsresults2010to2025.xlsx ( accessed June 26, 2015).
   Google Scholar
• US Public Health Service. 1964. Smoking and health: Report of the advisory committee to the Surgeon General of the Public Health Service. Public Health Service Publication 1103. Washington, DC: US Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.
   Google Scholar
• Wald, N., S. Howard, P. G. Smith, and K. Kjeldsen. 1973. Association between atherosclerotic diseases and carboxyhaemoglobin levels in tobacco smokers. British Medical Journal 1 (5856):761–65. doi:10.1136/bmj.1.5856.761.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Willett, J. B., and J. D. Singer. 1988. Another cautionary note about R2: Its use in weighted least-squares regression analysis. American Statistician 42 (3):236–38.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yashin, A. I., K. G. Arbeev, I. Akushevich, A. Kulminski, S. V. Ukraintseva, E. Stallard, and K. C. Land. 2012. The quadratic hazard model for analyzing longitudinal data on aging, health, and the life span. Physics of Life Reviews 9 (2):177–88. doi:10.1016/j.plrev.2012.05.002.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar