1,192
Views
20
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

A decision support system for demand and capacity modelling of an accident and emergency department

ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Pages 31-56 | Received 28 Sep 2018, Accepted 15 Dec 2018, Published online: 06 Jan 2019

References

  • Aboagye-Sarfo, P., Mai, Q., Sanfilippo, F. M., Preen, D. B., Stewart, L. M., & Fatovich, D. M. (2015). A comparison of multivariate and univariate time series approaches to modelling and forecasting emergency department demand in Western Australia. Journal of Biomedical Informatics, 57, 62–73.
  • Ahmad, N., Ghani, N. A., Kamil, A. A., Tahar, R. M., & Teo, A. H. (2012). Evaluating emergency department resource capacity using simulation. Modern Applied Science, 6, 9–19.
  • Al-Refaie, A., Fouad, R. H., Li, M., & Shurrab, M. (2014). Applying simulation and DEA to improve performance of emergency department in a Jordanian hospital. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, 41, 59–72.
  • Banks, J., Carson II, J. S., Nelson, B. L., & Nicol, D. M. (2005). Discrete-event system simulation. New Jersey, NJ: Pearson.
  • Batal, H., Tench, J., McMillan, S., Adams, J., & Mehler, P. S. (2001). Predicting patient visits to an urgent care clinic using calendar variables. Academic Emergency Medicine, 8, 48–53.
  • Bergs, J, Heerinckx, P, & Verelst, S. (2013). Knowing what to expect, forecasting monthly emergency department visits: a time-series analysis. International Emergency Nursing, 22, 112–115. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ienj.2013.08.001
  • Blunt, I. (2014). Focus on: A&E attendances: Why are patients waiting longer? Retrieved June 21, 2017, from http://www.qualitywatch.org.uk/sites/files/qualitywatch/field/field_document/QW%20Focus%20on%20A%26E%20attendances%20%28for%20web%29.pdf
  • Boutsioli, Z. (2010). Forecasting the stochastic demand for inpatient care: The case of Greek national health system. Health Services Management Research, 23, 116–120.
  • Boutsioli, Z. (2013). Estimation of unpredictable hospital demand variations in two Piraeus public hospitals, Greece. Journal of Hospital Administration, 2, 126–137.
  • Champion, R., Kinsman, L. D., Lee, G. A., Masman, K. A., May, E. A., Mills, T. M., … Williams, R. J. (2007). Forecasting emergency department presentations. Australian Health Review, 31, 83–90.
  • Cochran, J. K., & Bharti, A. (2006). Stochastic bed balancing of an obstetrics hospital. Health Care Management Science, 9, 31–45.
  • Connelly, L. G., & Bair, A. E. (2004). Discrete event simulation of emergency department activity: A platform for system-level operations. Academic Emergency Medicine, 11, 1177–1185.
  • Cracknell, R. (2010). The ageing population. Value for money in public services: key issues for the 2010 Parliament. (pp. 44). England: House of Commons Library Research.
  • Davis, S., Stevenson, M., Tappenden, P., & Wailoo, A. J. (2014). NICE DSU technical support document 15: Cost-effectiveness modelling using patient-level simulation. Retrieved July 4, 2017, from http://www.nicedsu.org.uk
  • DeLurgio, S. A. (1998). Forecasting principles and applications. New York: McGraw – Hill.
  • Demir, E., Gunal, M., & Southern, D. (2017). Demand and capacity modelling for acute services using discrete event simulation. Health Systems, 6, 33–40.
  • Department of Health. (2013). Reference costs 2012–13. Retrieved May 26, 2017, from https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/261154/nhs_reference_costs_2012-13_acc.pdf
  • Department of Health. (2014). Reference costs 2013–14. Retrieved May 26, 2017, from https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/380322/01_Final_2013-14_Reference_Costs_publication_v2.pdf
  • Duguay, C., & Chetouane, F. (2007). Modeling and improving emergency department systems using discrete event simulation. Simulation, 83, 311–320.
  • Gneiting, T. (2011). Making and evaluating point forecasts. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 494, 746–762.
  • Gul, M., Celik, E., Guneri, A. F., & Taskin Gumus, A. (2012). Simulation with integrated multi criteria decision making: An application of scenario selection for a hospital emergency department. Istanbul Commerce University Journal of Science, 22, 1–18. (in Turkish).
  • Gul, M., & Guneri, A. F. (2012). A computer simulation model to reduce patient length of stay and to improve resource utilization rate in an emergency department service system. International Journal of Industrial Engineering, 19(5), 221–231.
  • Gul, M., & Guneri, A. F. (2015). A comprehensive review of emergency department simulation applications for normal and disaster conditions. Computers and Industrial Engineering, 83, 327–344.
  • Gunal, M., & Pidd, M. (2006, December). Understanding accident and emergency department performance using simulation. In L. F. Perrone, F. P. Wieland, J. Liu, B. G. Lawson, D. M. Nicol, & R. M. Fujimoto, Eds., 39th Winter simulation conference (446–452). Monterey: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
  • Gunal, M. M. (2012). A guide for building hospital simulation models. Health Systems, 1(1), 17–25. doi: doi.10.1057/hs.2012.8
  • Hamm, C. (2010). The coalition government’s plans for the NHS in England. British Medical Journal, 341, 3790.
  • Hong, N. C., & Ghani, N. A. (2006, June). A model for predicting average ambulance service travel times in Penang Island. Proceedings of the 2nd IMT-GT Regional Conference on Mathematics, Statistics and Applications. Penang Island.
  • Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2014). Forecasting principles and practice. Australia: Otexts.
  • Hyndman, R. J., & Khandakar, Y. (2008). Automatic time series forecasting: The forecast package for R. Journal of Statistical Software, 27(3).
  • Hyndman, R. J., & Koehler, A. B. (2006). Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 679–688.
  • Hyndman, R. J., O’Hara-Wild, M., Bergmeir, C., Razbash, S., & Wang, E. (2016). Package ‘forecast’. Retrieved May 26, 2017, from https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/forecast/forecast.pdf
  • Jones, S. S., Thomas, A., Evans, R. S., Welch, S. J., Haug, P. J., & Snow, G. L. (2008). Forecasting daily patient volumes in the emergency department. Academic Emergency Medicine, 15, 159–170.
  • Kam, H. J., Sung, J. O., & Park, R. W. (2010). Prediction of daily patient numbers for a regional emergency medical center using time series analysis. Healthcare Informatics Research, 16, 158–165.
  • Komashie, A., & Mousavi, A. (2005, December). Modelling emergency departments using discrete event simulation techniques. In M. E. Kuhl, N. M. Steiger, F. B. Armstrong, & J. A. Joines, Eds., 38th Winter simulation conference (2681–2685). Orlando: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
  • Law, A. M., & Kelton, W. D. (2000). Simulation modeling and analysis. New York: McGraw – Hill.
  • Levin, S. R., Dittus, R., Aronsky, D., Weinger, M. B., Han, J., Boord, J., & France, D. (2008). Optimizing cardiology capacity to reduce emergency department boarding: A system engineering approach. American Heart Journal, 156, 1202–1209.
  • Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S. C., & Hydnman, R. J. (1998). Forecasting methods and applications. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Marcilio, I., Hajat, S., & Gouveia, N. (2013). Forecasting daily emergency department visits using calendar variables and ambient temperature readings. Academic Emergency Medicine, 20, 769–777.
  • Mathwave Technologies. (n.d.). How to select the best fitting distribution using the goodness of fit tests. Retrieved May 26, 2017, from http://www.mathwave.com/articles/distribution-fitting-goodness-of-fit.html
  • Medeiros, D. J., Swenson, E., & DeFlitch, C. (2008, December). Improving patient flow in a hospital emergency department. In J. S. Mason, R. R. Hill, L. Monch, O. Rose, T. Jefferson, & J. W. Fowler, Eds., 41st Winter simulation conference (1526–1531). Miami: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
  • Meng, L. Y., & Spedding, T. (2008). Modelling patient arrivals when simulating an accident and emergency unit. In J. S. Mason, R. R. Hill, L. Monch, O. Rose, T. Jefferson, & J. W. Fowler, Eds., 41st Winter Simulation Conference (1509-1515). Miami, USA. New York: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
  • Monitor. (2015). A&E delays: Why did patients wait longer? Our econometric analysis. Retrieved November 17, 2018, from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/457824/AE_delay_econometric_model_final_document.pdf
  • National Health Services England. (2014). A&E attendances and emergency admissions and bed availability and occupancy. Retrieved June 2, 2014, from https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/ae-waiting-times-and-activity/
  • National Health Services England. (2017a). A&E attendances and emergency admissions and bed availability and occupancy. Retrieved July 9, 2017, from https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/ae-waiting-times-and-activity/
  • National Health Services England. (2017b). Bed availability and occupancy. Retrieved May 26, 2017, from https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/bed-availability-and-occupancy/
  • NHS Digital. (2013). NHS staff earnings estimates to June 2013 – Provisional, experimental statistics. Retrieved May 26, 2017, from https://content.digital.nhs.uk/catalogue/PUB116121
  • NHS Digital. (2014). NHS staff earnings estimates to June 2014 – Provisional statistics. Retrieved May 26, 2017, from https://content.digital.nhs.uk/catalogue/PUB14955
  • NHS Digital. (n.d.). Healthcare Research Groups (HRG4). Retrieved May 26, 2017, from http://content.digital.nhs.uk/hrg4
  • NHS England. (2017). NHS national tariff payment system 2016/17. Retrieved May 26, 2017, from https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/509697/2016-17_National_Tariff_Payment_System.pdf
  • Oh, C., Novotny, A. M., Carter, P. L., Ready, R. K., Campbell, D. D., & Leckie, M. C. (2016). Use of a simulation – Based decision support tool to improve emergency department throughput. Operations Research for Health Care, 9, 29–39.
  • Ozdagoglu, A., Yalcinkaya, O., & Ozdagoglu, G. (2009). A simulation based analysis of a research and application hospital emergency patient data in Aegean region. Istanbul Commerce University Journal of Science, 16, 61–73. (in Turkish).
  • Pidd, M. (2004). Computer simulation in management science. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons.
  • Ripley, B., Venables, B., Bates, D. M., Hornik, K., Gebhardt, A., & Firth, D. (2016). Package ‘MASS’. Retrieved May 26, 2017, from https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/MASS/MASS.pdf
  • Rohleder, T. R., Lewkonia, P., Bischak, D. P., Duffy, P., & Hendijani, R. (2011). Using simulation modelling to improve patient flow at an outpatient orthopaedic clinic. Health Care Management Science, 14, 135–145.
  • Royal College of Physicians. (n.d.). Work and wellbeing in the NHS: Why staff health matters to patient care. Retrieved October 23, 2017, from https://www.rcpsych.ac.uk/pdf/RCP-%20WorkWellbeingNHS.pdf
  • Ruohonen, T., & Teittinen, J. (2006, December). Simulation model for improving the operational of the emergency department of special health care. In L. F. Perrone, F. P. Wieland, J. Liu, B. G. Lawson, D. M. Nicol, & R. M. Fujimoto, Eds., 39th Winter simulation conference (453–458). Monterey: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
  • Sun, Y., Heng, B. H., Seow, Y. T., & Seow, E. (2009). Forecasting daily attendances at an emergency department to aid resource planning. BMC Emergency Medicine, 9.
  • Tofallis, C. (2015). A better measure of relative prediction accuracy for model selection and model estimation. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 66, 1352–1362.
  • VanBerkel, P. T., & Blake, J. T. (2007). A comprehensive simulation for wait time reduction and capacity planning applied in general surgery. Health Care Management Science, 10, 373–385.
  • Vasilakis, C., & El-Darzi, E. (2001). A simulation study of the winter bed crisis. Health Care Management Science, 4, 31–36.
  • Virtue, A., Kelly, J., & Chaussalet, T. (2011, December). Using simplified discrete-event simulation models for health care applications. In S. Jain, R. R. Creasey, J. Himmelspach, & M. Fu, Eds., 44th Winter simulation conference (1154–1165). Phoenix: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
  • Wang, J., Li, J., Tussey, K., & Ross, K. (2012). Reducing length of stay in emergency department: A simulation study at a community hospital. Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans, IEEE Transaction, 42, 1314–1322.
  • Zhu, Z., Hen, B. H., & Teow, K. L. (2012). Estimating ICU bed capacity using discrete event simulation. International Journal of Health Care Quality Assurance, 25, 134–144.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.