2,977
Views
19
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Paper

Modeling household and community transmission of Ebola virus disease: Epidemic growth, spatial dynamics and insights for epidemic control

&
Pages 163-173 | Received 15 Apr 2015, Accepted 21 Jul 2015, Published online: 25 Sep 2015

References

  • Baize S, Pannetier D, Oestereich L, Rieger T, Koivogui L, Magassouba N, Soropogui B, Sow MS, Keïta S, De Clerck H, et al. Emergence of Zaire Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea - Preliminary Report. N Engl J Med 2014 Apr 16;371(15):1418-25; PMID:24738640; http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1404505
  • Ebola response roadmap - Situation report - 01 July 2015. Available from:http://apps.who.int/ebola/current-situation/ebola-situation-report-1-july-2015 (accessed on 5 July 2015). 2015 [cited; Available from: http://apps.who.int/ebola/en/current-situation/ebola-situation-report-6-may-2015
  • Chowell G, Nishiura H. Characterizing the transmission dynamics and control of ebola virus disease. PLoS Biol. 2015 Jan;13(1):e1002057; PMID:25607595; http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1002057
  • Chowell G, Nishiura H. Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): a review. BMC Med. 2014 Oct 10;12(1):196; PMID:25300956; http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-014-0196-0
  • Pandey A, Atkins KE, Medlock J, Wenzel N, Townsend JP, Childs JE, Nyenswah TG, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Galvani AP. Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa. Science 2014 Nov 21;346(6212):991-5; PMID:25414312; http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1260612
  • Yamin D, Gertler S, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Skrip LA, Fallah M, Nyenswah TG, Altice FL, Galvani AP. Effect of Ebola Progression on Transmission and Control in Liberia. Ann Intern Med. 2014 Oct 28; 162(1):11-7
  • Gomes MF, Piontti AP, Rossi L, Chao D, Longini I, Halloran ME, Vespignani A. Assessing the International Spreading Risk Associated with the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak. PLOS Currents 2014; 6
  • Bogoch II, Creatore MI, Cetron MS, Brownstein JS, Pesik N, Miniota J, Tam T, Hu W, Nicolucci A, Ahmed S, et al. Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak. Lancet 2014; 385(9962):29-35
  • Kucharski AJ, Camacho A, Checchi F, Waldman R, Grais RF, Cabrol JC, Briand S, Baguelin M, Flasche S, Funk S, et al. Evaluation of the benefits and risks of introducing Ebola community care centers, Sierra Leone. Emerg Infect Dis 2015 Mar;21(3):393-9; PMID:25694150; http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2103.141892
  • Merler S, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Gomes MF, Piontti AP, Rossi L, Chao DL, Longini IM Jr, Halloran ME, Vespignani A. Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis. Lancet Infect Dis 2015 Feb;15(2):204-11; PMID:25575618; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(14)71074-6
  • Lewnard JA, Ndeffo Mbah ML, Alfaro-Murillo JA, Altice FL, Bawo L, Nyenswah TG, Galvani AP. Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis. Lancet Infect Dis 2014 Dec;14(12):1189-95; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70995-8
  • Camacho A, Kucharski A, Aki-Sawyerr Y, White MA, Flasche S, Baguelin M, Pollington T, Carney JR, Glover R, Smout E, et al. Temporal Changes in Ebola Transmission in Sierra Leone and Implications for Control Requirements: a Real-time Modelling Study. PLoS Curr 2015;7; PMID:25737806
  • Getz WM, Gonzalez JP, Salter R, Bangura J, Carlson C, Coomber M, Dougherty E, Kargbo D, Wolfe ND, Wauquier N. Tactics and strategies for managing Ebola outbreaks and the salience of immunization. Comput Math Methods Med 2015;2015:736507; PMID:25755674; http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/736507
  • Drake JM, Kaul RB, Alexander LW, O'Regan SM, Kramer AM, Pulliam JT, Ferrari MJ, Park AW. Ebola cases and health system demand in Liberia. PLoS Biol. 2015 Jan;13(1):e1002056; PMID:25585384; http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1002056
  • Meltzer MI, Atkins CY, Santibanez S, Knust B, Petersen BW, Ervin ED, Nichol ST, Damon IK, Washington ML. Estimating the future number of cases in the ebola epidemic — liberia and sierra leone, 2014–2015. MMWR Surveill Summ 2014 Sep 26;63:1-14; PMID:25254986
  • Chowell G, Viboud C, Hyman JM, Simonsen L. The Western Africa ebola virus disease epidemic exhibits both global exponential and local polynomial growth rates. PLoS currents 2015;7; PMID:25685633
  • Kiskowski M. Three-Scale Network Model for the Early Growth Dynamics of 2014 West Africa Ebola Epidemic. PLOS Currents 2014; 6; PMID:25685614
  • WHO Ebola Response Team. Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa - The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections. New England J Med 2014 Sep 22;371(16):1481-95; PMID:25244186; http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100
  • Dowell SF, Mukunu R, Ksiazek TG, Khan AS, Rollin PE, Peters CJ. Transmission of Ebola hemorrhagic fever: a study of risk factors in family members, Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1995. Commission de Lutte contre les Epidemies a Kikwit. J Infect Dis 1999 Feb;179 Suppl 1:S87-91; http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/514284
  • Bwaka MA, Bonnet MJ, Calain P, Colebunders R, De Roo A, Guimard Y, et al. Ebola hemorrhagic fever in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo: clinical observations in 103 patients. J Infect Dis 1999 Feb;179 Suppl 1:S1-7; PMID:9988155; http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/514308
  • Fisman D, Khoo E, Tuite A. Early epidemic dynamics of the west african 2014 ebola outbreak: estimates derived with a simple two-parameter model. PLoS Curr 2014;6; PMID:25642358
  • Althaus CL. Estimating the reproduction number of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa. PLOS Curr Outbreaks Edition 1 2014; 6; PMID:25642364
  • Towers S, Patterson-Lomba O, Castillo-Chavez C. Temporal Variations in the Effective Reproduction Number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola Outbreak. PLOS Curr Outbreaks 2014; 6; PMID:25642357
  • Anderson RM, May RM. Infectious diseases of humans. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991
  • Murray JD. Mathematical Biology. II Spatial Models and Biomedical Applications {Interdisciplinary Applied Mathematics V. 18}. Springer-Verlag New York Incorporated; 2001
  • Sattenspiel L. The geographic spread of infectious diseases. Princeton University Press; 2009
  • Christakos G, Olea RA, Yu HL. Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics. Public Health. 2007 Sep;121(9):700-20; PMID:17544041; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2006.12.011
  • Cummings DA, Irizarry RA, Huang NE, Endy TP, Nisalak A, Ungchusak K, et al. Travelling waves in the occurrence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Thailand. Nature. 2004 Jan 22;427(6972):344-7; PMID:14737166; http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature02225
  • Grenfell BT, Bjornstad ON, Kappey J. Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 2001 Dec 13;414(6865):716-23; PMID:11742391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/414716a
  • Nishiura H, Chowell G. Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014. Euro Surveill 2014;19(36):20894; PMID:25232919
  • Chowell G, Hengartner NW, Castillo-Chavez C, Fenimore PW, Hyman JM. The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda. J Theor Biol 2004 Jul 7;229(1):119-26; PMID:15178190; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.03.006
  • Team WHOER, Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Blake IM, Brennan R, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, et al. West African Ebola epidemic after one year-slowing but not yet under control. New Engl J Med 2015 Feb 5;372(6):584-7
  • Holmes EE. Basic epidemiological concepts in a spatial context. In: Tilman D, Kareiva P, editors. Spatial Ecology: Princeton University Press; 1997
  • Watts DJ, Strogatz SH. Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks. Nature 1998 Jun 4;393(6684):440-2; http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/30918
  • Pastor-Satorras R, Vespignani A. Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks. Phys Rev Lett 2001 Apr 2;86(14):3200-3; http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.86.3200
  • Vazquez A. Spreading dynamics on small-world networks with connectivity fluctuations and correlations. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 2006 Nov;74(5 Pt 2):056101; PMID:17279962; http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.74.056101
  • Karsai M, Kivela M, Pan RK, Kaski K, Kertesz J, Barabasi AL, Saramäki J. Small but slow world: how network topology and burstiness slow down spreading. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 2011 Feb;83(2 Pt 2):025102; PMID:21405879
  • Bernstein L. Resistance, size of population slow Ebola efforts in Guinea, CDC director says. Washington Post 2015 March 13, 2015
  • Bian L. Spatial approaches to modeling dispersion of communicable diseases — A review. Trans GIS 2012;17:1-17.
  • Richards P, Amara J, Ferme MC, Kamara P, Mokuwa E, Sheriff AI, Suluku R1, Voors M. Social Pathways for Ebola Virus Disease in Rural Sierra Leone, and some Implications for Containment. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2014 October 31; 9(4):e0003567; PMID:25886400
  • Colgate SA, Stanley EA, Hyman JM, Layne SP, Qualls C. Risk behavior-based model of the cubic growth of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1989 Jun;86(12):4793-7; http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.86.12.4793
  • Fasina F, Shittu A, Lazarus D, Tomori O, Simonsen L, Viboud C, et al. Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria, July to September 2014. Euro Surveill 2014;19(40):20920; PMID:25323076
  • Scarpino SV, Iamarino A, Wells C, Yamin D, Ndeffo-Mbah M, Wenzel NS, Fox SJ, Nyenswah T, Altice FL, Galvani AP, Meyers LA, et al. Epidemiological and viral genomic sequence analysis of the 2014 ebola outbreak reveals clustered transmission. Clin Infect Dis 2015 Apr 1;60(7):1079-82; PMID:25516185
  • Faye O, Boelle PY, Heleze E, Faye O, Loucoubar C, Magassouba N, et al. Chains of transmission and control of Ebola virus disease in Conakry, Guinea, in 2014: an observational study. Lancet Infect Dis 2015 Mar;15(3):320-6; PMID:25619149; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(14)71075-8
  • Brauer F. Some simple epidemic models. Math Biosci Eng. 2006 Jan;3(1):1-15; PMID:20361804; http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2006.3.1
  • Sattenspiel L, Dietz K. A structured epidemic model incorporating geographic mobility among regions. Math Biosci 1995 Jul-Aug;128(1-2):71-91; PMID:7606146; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0025-5564(94)00068-B
  • Newman ME. Spread of epidemic disease on networks. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 2002 Jul;66(1 Pt 2):016128; PMID:12241447; http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.66.016128