Geospatial Analysis of Alaskan Lakes Indicates Wetland Fraction and Surface Water Area Are Useful Predictors of Methane Ebullition

References

• Aben, R. C., N. Barros, E. Van Donk, T. Frenken, S. Hilt, G. Kazanjian, L. P. Lamers, E. T. Peeters, J. G. Roelofs, L. N. de Senerpont Domis, et al. 2017. Cross continental increase in methane ebullition under climate change. Nature Communications 8 (1):1682. doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-01535-y.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Ali, M. A. 1987. Effect of sample size on the size of the coefficient of determination in simple linear regression. Journal of Information and Optimization Sciences 8 (2):209–19. doi: 10.1080/02522667.1987.10698887.
   Google Scholar
• Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme. 2015. AMAP assessment 2015: Methane as an Arctic climate forcer. Oslo, Norway: Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme.
   Google Scholar
• Bastviken, D., J. Cole, M. Pace, and L. Tranvik. 2004. Methane emissions from lakes: Dependence of lake characteristics, two regional assessments, and a global estimate. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18 (4): 238. doi: 10.1029/2004GB002238.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bastviken, D., L. J. Tranvik, J. A. Downing, P. M. Crill, and A. Enrich-Prast. 2011. Freshwater methane emissions offset the continental carbon sink. Science 331 (6013):50. doi: 10.1126/science.1196808.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cooley, S. W., L. C. Smith, J. C. Ryan, L. H. Pitcher, and T. M. Pavelsky. 2019. Arctic‐boreal lake dynamics revealed using CubeSat imagery. Geophysical Research Letters 46 (4):2111–20. doi: 10.1029/2018GL081584.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dark, S. J., and D. Bram. 2007. The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) in physical geography. Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 31 (5):471–79. doi: 10.1177/0309133307083294.
   Google Scholar
• Deemer, B. R., and M. A. Holgerson. 2021. Drivers of methane flux differ between lakes and reservoirs, complicating global upscaling efforts. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 126 (4):e2019JG005600. doi: 10.1029/2019JG005600.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• DelSontro, T., J. J. Beaulieu, and J. A. Downing. 2019. Greenhouse gas emissions from lakes and impoundments: Upscaling in the face of global change. Limnology and Oceanography Letters 3 (3):64–75. doi: 10.1002/lol2.10073.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• DelSontro, T., L. Boutet, A. St‐Pierre, P. A. del Giorgio, and Y. T. Prairie. 2016. Methane ebullition and diffusion from northern ponds and lakes regulated by the interaction between temperature and system productivity. Limnology and Oceanography 61 (Suppl. 1):S62–S77. doi: 10.1002/lno.10335.
   Google Scholar
• Dhakal, S., J. C. Minx, F. L. Toth, A. Abdel-Aziz, M. J. Figueroa Meza, K. Hubacek, I. G. C. Jonckheere, Y. G. Kim, G. F. Nemet, S. Pachauri, et al. 2022. Climate change 2022: Mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. P. R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, and J. Malley. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. doi: 10.1017/9781009157926.004.
   Google Scholar
• Engram, M., K. W. Anthony, F. J. Meyer, and G. Grosse. 2013. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter response from methane ebullition bubbles trapped by thermokarst lake ice. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing 38 (6):667–82. doi: 10.5589/m12-054.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Engram, M. J., K. Walter Anthony, and F. J. Meyer. 2020. ABoVE: SAR-based methane ebullition flux from lakes, five regions, Alaska, 2007–2010. ORNL DAAC, Oak Ridge, TN. doi: 10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1790.
   Google Scholar
• Engram, M., K. M. Walter Anthony, T. Sachs, K. Kohnert, A. Serafimovich, G. Grosse, and F. J. Meyer. 2020. Remote sensing northern lake methane ebullition. Nature Climate Change 10 (6):511–17. doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-0762-8.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fu, L. L., D. Alsdorf, R. Morrow, E. Rodriguez, and N. Mognard. 2012. SWOT: The surface water and ocean topography mission: Wide-swath altimetric elevation on Earth. Pasadena, CA: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
   Google Scholar
• Haslwanter, T. 2016. An introduction to statistics with Python with applications in the life sciences. Cham, Switzerland: Springer International.
   Google Scholar
• Johnson, M. S., E. Matthews, J. Du, V. Genovese, and D. Bastviken. 2022. Methane emission from global lakes: New spatiotemporal data and observation‐driven modeling of methane dynamics indicates lower emissions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 127 (7):e2022JG006793. doi: 10.1029/2022JG006793.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Johnston, S. E., R. G. Striegl, M. J. Bogard, M. M. Dornblaser, D. E. Butman, A. M. Kellerman, K. P. Wickland, D. C. Podgorski, and R. G. Spencer. 2020. Hydrologic connectivity determines dissolved organic matter biogeochemistry in northern high‐latitude lakes. Limnology and Oceanography 65 (8):1764–80. doi: 10.1002/lno.11417.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Julian, J. P., R. J. Davies-Colley, C. L. Gallegos, and T. V. Tran. 2013. Optical water quality of inland waters: A landscape perspective. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103 (2):309–18. doi: 10.1080/00045608.2013.754658.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Juutinen, S., J. Alm, T. Larmola, J. T. Huttunen, M. Morero, P. J. Martikainen, and J. Silvola. 2003. Major implication of the littoral zone for methane release from boreal lakes. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 17 (4):105. doi: 10.1029/2003GB002105.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kellogg, K., P. Hoffman, S. Standley, S. Shaffer, P. Rosen, W. Edelstein, C. Dunn, C. Baker, P. Barela, Y. Shen, et al. 2020. NASA-ISRO synthetic aperture radar (NISAR) mission. In 2020 IEEE Aerospace Conference, 1–21). Big Sky, MT: IEEE. doi: 10.1109/AERO47225.2020.9172638.
   Google Scholar
• Kohnert, K., B. Juhls, S. Muster, S. Antonova, A. Serafimovich, S. Metzger, J. Hartmann, and T. Sachs. 2018. Toward understanding the contribution of waterbodies to the methane emissions of a permafrost landscape on a regional scale—A case study from the Mackenzie delta, Canada. Global Change Biology 24 (9):3976–89. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14289.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kuhn, C., and D. Butman. 2021. ABoVE: Lake growing season green surface reflectance trends, AK and Canada, 1984–2019. Oak Ridge, TN: ORNL DAAC. doi: 10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1866.
   Google Scholar
• Kuhn, M. A., R. K. Varner, D. Bastviken, P. Crill, S. MacIntyre, M. Turetsky, K. Walter Anthony, A. D. McGuire, and D. Olefeldt. 2021. BAWLD-CH 4: A comprehensive dataset of methane fluxes from boreal and Arctic ecosystems. Earth System Science Data 13 (11):5151–89. doi: 10.5194/essd-13-5151-2021.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kyzivat, E. D., L. C. Smith, F. Garcia‐Tigreros, C. Huang, C. Wang, T. Langhorst, J. V. Fayne, M. E. Harlan, Y. Ishitsuka, D. Feng, et al. 2022. The importance of lake emergent aquatic vegetation for estimating arctic‐boreal methane emissions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 127 (6):e2021JG006635. doi: 10.1029/2021JG006635.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kyzivat, E. D., L. C. Smith, L. H. Pitcher, J. V. Fayne, S. W. Cooley, M. G. Cooper, S. N. Topp, T. Langhorst, M. E. Harlan, C. Horvat, et al. 2019. A high-resolution airborne color-infrared camera water mask for the NASA ABoVE campaign. Remote Sensing 11 (18):2163. doi: 10.3390/rs11182163.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lu, X., D. J. Jacob, Y. Zhang, J. D. Maasakkers, M. P. Sulprizio, L. Shen, Z. Qu, T. R. Scarpelli, H. Nesser, R. M. Yantosca, et al. 2021. Global methane budget and trend, 2010–2017: Complementarity of inverse analyses using in situ (GLOBALVIEWplus CH 4 ObsPack) and satellite (GOSAT) observations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21 (6):4637–57. doi: 10.5194/acp-21-4637-2021.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ludwig, S. M., S. M. Natali, P. J. Mann, J. D. Schade, R. M. Holmes, M. Powell, G. Fiske, and R. Commane. 2022. Using machine learning to predict inland aquatic CO2 and CH4 concentrations and the effects of wildfires in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 36 (4):e2021GB007146. doi: 10.1029/2021GB007146.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Matthews, E., M. S. Johnson, V. Genovese, J. Du, and D. Bastviken. 2020. Methane emission from high latitude lakes: Methane-centric lake classification and satellite-driven annual cycle of emissions. Scientific Reports 10 (1):12465. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-68246-1.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• McGuire, A. D., L. G. Anderson, T. R. Christensen, S. Dallimore, L. Guo, D. J. Hayes, M. Heimann, T. D. Lorenson, R. W. Macdonald, and N. Roulet. 2009. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change. Ecological Monographs 79 (4):523–55. doi: 10.1890/08-2025.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Messager, M. L., B. Lehner, G. Grill, I. Nedeva, and O. Schmitt. 2016. Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a geo-statistical approach. Nature Communications 7 (1):13603. doi: 10.1038/ncomms13603.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Murakami, D., B. Lu, P. Harris, C. Brunsdon, M. Charlton, T. Nakaya, and D. A. Griffith. 2019. The importance of scale in spatially varying coefficient modeling. Annals of the American Association of Geographers 109 (1):50–70. doi: 10.1080/24694452.2018.1462691.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Muster, S., K. Roth, M. Langer, S. Lange, F. Cresto Aleina, A. Bartsch, A. Morgenstern, G. Grosse, B. Jones, A. B. K. Sannel, et al. 2017. PeRL: A circum-Arctic permafrost region pond and lake database. Earth System Science Data 9 (1):317–48. doi: 10.5194/essd-9-317-2017.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Negandhi, K., I. Laurion, M. J. Whiticar, P. E. Galand, X. Xu, and C. Lovejoy. 2013. Small thaw ponds: An unaccounted source of methane in the Canadian High Arctic. PLoS ONE 8 (11):e78204. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0078204.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Olefeldt, D., M. Hovemyr, M. A. Kuhn, D. Bastviken, T. J. Bohn, J. Connolly, P. Crill, E. S. Euskirchen, S. A. Finkelstein, H. Genet, et al. 2021. The Boreal–Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD). Earth System Science Data 13 (11):5127–49. doi: 10.5194/essd-13-5127-2021.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pastick, N. J., M. T. Jorgenson, B. K. Wylie, S. J. Nield, K. D. Johnson, and A. O. Finley. 2015. Distribution of near-surface permafrost in Alaska: Estimates of present and future conditions. Remote Sensing of Environment 168:301–15. doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2015.07.019.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Poggio, L., L. M. De Sousa, N. H. Batjes, G. Heuvelink, B. Kempen, E. Ribeiro, and D. Rossiter. 2021. SoilGrids 2.0: Producing soil information for the globe with quantified spatial uncertainty. SOIL 7 (1):217–40. doi: 10.5194/soil-7-217-2021.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Praetzel, L. S. E., M. Schmiedeskamp, and K. H. Knorr. 2021. Temperature and sediment properties drive spatiotemporal variability of methane ebullition in a small and shallow temperate lake. Limnology and Oceanography 66 (7):2598–2610. doi: 10.1002/lno.11775.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rantanen, M., A. Y. Karpechko, A. Lipponen, K. Nordling, O. Hyvärinen, K. Ruosteenoja, T. Vihma, and A. Laaksonen. 2022. The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979. Communications Earth & Environment 3 (1):168. doi: 10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3.
   Google Scholar
• Root, E. D. 2012. Moving neighborhoods and health research forward: Using geographic methods to examine the role of spatial scale in neighborhood effects on health. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 102 (5):986–95. doi: 10.1080/00045608.2012.659621.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sachdeva, M., and A. S. Fotheringham. 2023. A geographical perspective on Simpson’s Paradox. Journal of Spatial Information Science 26 (26):1–25. doi: 10.5311/JOSIS.2023.26.212.
   Google Scholar
• Sanches, L. F., B. Guenet, C. C. Marinho, N. Barros, and F. de Assis Esteves. 2019. Global regulation of methane emission from natural lakes. Scientific Reports 9 (1):255. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-36519-5.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Saunois, M., A. R. Stavert, B. Poulter, P. Bousquet, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Jackson, P. A. Raymond, E. J. Dlugokencky, S. Houweling, P. K. Patra, et al. 2020. The global methane budget 2000–2017. Earth System Science Data 12 (3):1561–1623. doi: 10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Seekell, D., B. B. Cael, and P. Byström. 2022. Problems with the Shoreline Development Index—A widely used metric of lake shape. Geophysical Research Letters 49 (10):e98499. doi: 10.1029/2022GL098499.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Seekell, D., B. Cael, S. Norman, and P. Byström. 2021. Patterns and variation of littoral habitat size among lakes. Geophysical Research Letters 48 (20):e2021GL095046. doi: 10.1029/2021GL095046.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sepulveda-Jauregui, A., K. M. Walter Anthony, K. Martinez-Cruz, S. Greene, and F. Thalasso. 2015. Methane and carbon dioxide emissions from 40 lakes along a north–south latitudinal transect in Alaska. Biogeosciences 12 (11):3197–3223. doi: 10.5194/bg-12-3197-2015.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smith, L. C. 2002. Emerging applications of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) in geomorphology and hydrology. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 92 (3):385–98. doi: 10.1111/1467-8306.00295.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smith, L. C., Y. Sheng, G. M. MacDonald, and L. D. Hinzman. 2005. Disappearing arctic lakes. Science 308 (5727):1429. doi: 10.1126/science.1108142.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stackpoole, S. M., D. E. Butman, D. W. Clow, K. L. Verdin, B. V. Gaglioti, H. Genet, and R. G. Striegl. 2017. Inland waters and their role in the carbon cycle of Alaska. Ecological Applications 27 (5):1403–20. doi: 10.1002/eap.1552.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thornton, M. M., R. Shrestha, Y. Wei, P. E. Thornton, S. Kao, and B. E. Wilson. 2020. Daymet: Daily surface weather data on a 1-km grid for North America, version 4. ORNL DAAC, Oak Ridge, TN. doi: 10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1840.
   Google Scholar
• Walter, K. M., L. C. Smith, and S. F. Chapin. 2007. Methane bubbling from northern lakes: Present and future contributions to the global methane budget. Philosophical Transactions Series A: Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences 365 (1856):1657–76. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2036.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Walter Anthony, K., R. Daanen, P. Anthony, T. Schneider von Deimling, C. L. Ping, J. P. Chanton, and G. Grosse. 2016. Methane emissions proportional to permafrost carbon thawed in Arctic lakes since the 1950s. Nature Geoscience 9 (9):679–82. doi: 10.1038/ngeo2795.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Walter Anthony, K. M., P. Lindgren, P. Hanke, M. Engram, P. Anthony, R. P. Daanen, A. Bondurant, A. K. Liljedahl, J. Lenz, G. Grosse, et al. 2021. Decadal-scale hotspot methane ebullition within lakes following abrupt permafrost thaw. Environmental Research Letters 16 (3):035010. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc848.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang, G., X. Xia, S. Liu, L. Zhang, S. Zhang, J. Wang, N. Xi, and Q. Zhang. 2021. Intense methane ebullition from urban inland waters and its significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. Water Research 189:116654. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2020.116654.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang, J. A., D. Sulla-Menashe, C. E. Woodcock, O. Sonnentag, R. F. Keeling, and M. A. Friedl. 2019. ABoVE: Landsat-derived annual dominant land cover across ABoVE core domain, 1984–2014. Oak Ridge, TN: ORNL DAAC. doi: 10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1691.
   Google Scholar
• Wik, M., J. E. Johnson, P. M. Crill, J. P. DeStasio, L. Erickson, M. J. Halloran, M. F. Fahnestock, M. K. Crawford, S. C. Phillips, and R. K. Varner. 2018. Sediment characteristics and methane ebullition in three subarctic lakes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 123 (8):2399–2411. doi: 10.1029/2017JG004298.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wik, M., R. K. Varner, K. W. Anthony, S. MacIntyre, and D. Bastviken. 2016. Climate-sensitive northern lakes and ponds are critical components of methane release. Nature Geoscience 9 (2):99–105. doi: 10.1038/ngeo2578.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Xu, J., and C. Jin. 2019. Exploring spatiotemporal heterogeneity in online travel searches: A local spatial model approach. Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 119 (2):146–62. doi: 10.1080/00167223.2019.1601575.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yvon-Durocher, G., A. P. Allen, D. Bastviken, R. Conrad, C. Gudasz, A. St-Pierre, N. Thanh-Duc, and P. A. Del Giorgio. 2014. Methane fluxes show consistent temperature dependence across microbial to ecosystem scales. Nature 507 (7493):488–91. doi: 10.1038/nature13164.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhou, Y., K. Song, R. Han, S. Riya, X. Xu, S. Yeerken, S. Geng, Y. Ma, and A. Terada. 2020. Nonlinear response of methane release to increased trophic state levels coupled with microbial processes in shallow lakes. Environmental Pollution 265 (Pt. B):114919. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2020.114919.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar