220
Views
24
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

High-resolution ensemble prediction of a polar low development

, , , &
Pages 585-604 | Received 15 Apr 2010, Accepted 29 Nov 2010, Published online: 15 Dec 2016

References

  • Aakjxr, P. D. 1992. Polar lows affecting Denmark. Tellus 44A, 155–172.
  • Albright, M. D., Reed, R. J. and Ovens, D. W. 1995. Origin and structure of a numerically simulated polar low over Hudson Bay. Tellus 47A, 834–848.
  • Anderson, D., Hodges, K. I. and Hoskins, B. J. 2003. Sensitivity of feature-based analysis methods of storm tracks to the form of back-ground field removal. Mon. Wea. Rev. 131, 565–573.
  • Aspelien, T., Bremnes, J. B., Frogner, I.-L. and Iversen, T. 2011. Short-range probabilistic forecasts from the Norwegian limited-area EPS. Long-term validation and a polar low study. Tellus 63A, this issue.
  • Bechtold, P., Köhler, M., Jung, T., Doblas-Reyes, F., Leutbecher, M. and co-authors. 2008. Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: from synoptic to decadal time-scales. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc. 134, 1337-1351.
  • Blechschmidt, A.-M. 2008. A 2-year climatology of polar low events over the Nordic Seas from satellite remote sensing. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L09815, 10.1029/2008GL033706.
  • Bowler, N. E. and Mylne, K. R. 2009. Ensemble transform Kalman filter perturbations for a regional ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteor Soc. 135, 757–766, 10.1002/qj.404.
  • Brankoviéë., MatjaCié, B., Ivatek-§ahdan, S. and Buizza, R. 2008. Downscaling of ECMWF ensemble forcasts for cases of severe weather: ensemble statistics and cluster analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 3323–3342.
  • Bratseth, A. M. 1985. A note on CISK in polar air masses. Tellus 37A, 403–406.
  • Bracegirdle, T. J. and Gray, S. 2008. An objective climatology of the dynamical forcing of polar lows in the Nordic Seas. Int. J. Climatol. 28, 1903–1919.
  • Buizza, R. 2002. Chaos and weather prediction. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Internal Report; Meteorological Training Course, 1-28.
  • Buizza, R. and Hollingsworth, A. 2002. Storm prediction over Eu-rope using ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Meteorol. AppL 9, 289–305.
  • Buizza, R. and Palmer, T. N. 1995. The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation. J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 1434–1456.
  • Buizza, R., Houtelcamer, P. L., Pellerin, G., Toth, Z., Zhu, Y. and Wei, M. 2005. A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev. 133, 1076–1097.
  • Buizza, R., Miller, M. and Palmer, T. N. 1999. Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 2887–2908.
  • Businger, S. 1985. The synoptic climatology of polar low outbreaks. Tellus 37A, 419–432.
  • Calvo, J. 2007. Kain-Fritsch convection in HIRLAM. Present status and prospects. HIRLAIVI Newsletter 52, 57-64. Available at: http://hirlam.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=64& Itemid=101. Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
  • Claud, C., Heinemann, G., Raustein, E. and McMurdie L. 2004. Polar low le Cygne: satellite observations and numerical simulations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 130, 1075–1102.
  • Cullen, M. J. P., Davies, T., Mawson, M. H., James, J. A., Coulter, S. C. and co-authors. 1997. An overview of numerical methods for the next generation UK NWP and climate model. In: Numerical Methods in Atmospheric and Ocean Modelling: The Andre J. Robert Memo-rial Volume (eds C. A. Lin, R. Laprise and H. Ritchie). Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 425-444.
  • Davies, T., Cullen, M. J. R, Malcolm, A. J., Mawson, M. H., Staniforth, A. and co-authors. 2005. A new dynamical core for the Met Office’s global and regional modelling of the atmosphere. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131. 1759–1782.
  • Dixon, M., Li, Z., Lean, H., Roberts, N. and Ballard, S. 2009. Impact of data assimilation on forecasting convection over the United Kingdom using a high-resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 137, 1562–1584.
  • Emanuel, K. A. and Rotunno, R. 1989. Polar lows as arctic hurricanes. Tellus 41A, 1–17.
  • Frogner, I.-L. and Iversen, T. 2001. Targeted ensemble prediction for northern Europe and parts of the north Atlantic Ocean. Tellus 53A, 35–55.
  • Frogner, I.-L. and Iversen, T. 2002. High-resolution limited area ensem-ble predictions based on low-resolution targeted singular vectors. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 128, 1321–1341.
  • Frogner, I.-L., Haakenstad, H. and Iversen, T. 2006. Limited area en-semble predictions at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132, 2785–2808.
  • Froude, L. S. R., Bengtsson, L. and Hodges, K. I. 2007a. The predictbility of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction of the observing system. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135, 315–333.
  • Froude, L. S. R., Bengtsson, L. and Hodges, K. I. 2007b. The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135, 2545–2567.
  • Gustafsson, N., Källen, E. and Thorsteinsson, S. 1998. Sensitivity of forecast errors to initial and lateral boundary conditions. Tellus 50A, 167–185.
  • Harold, J. M., Bigg, G. R. and Turner, J. 1999. Mesocyclone Acticity over the North-East Atlantic. Part 1: Vortex distribution and variability. InL J. Clim. 19, 1187–1204.
  • Harold, T. W. and Browning, K. A. 1969. The polar low as a baroclinic disturbance. Q. J. Roy. Meteor Soc. 95, 710–723.
  • Hodges, K. I. 1994. A general method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data. Mon. Wea. Rev. 120, 2573–2586.
  • Hodges, K. I. 1995. Feature tracking on the unit sphere. Mon. Wea. Rev. 123, 3458–3465.
  • Hodges, K. I. 1999. Adaptive constraints for feature tracking. Mon. Wea. Rev. 127, 1362–1373.
  • Hohenegger, C. and Schär, C. 2007. Atmospheric predictability at syn-optic versus cloud-resolving scales. Bull. Am. Soc. 88,11, 1783–1793. 10.1175/13AMS-88-11-1783
  • Hoskins, B. J. and Hodges, K. I. 2002. New perspective on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks. J. Atmos. Sci. 59, 1041–1061.
  • Hoskins, B. J. and Hodges, K. I. 2005. New perspective on the Southern Hemisphere Storm Tracks. J. Atmos. Sci. 18, 4108–4129.
  • Hoskins B. J., McIntyre, M. E. and Robertson, A. W. 1985. On the use and significance of isentropic potential voracity maps. Q. J. Roy. Meteor Soc. 111, 877–946.
  • Ivarsson, K. I. 2007. The Rasch Kristjansson large scale con-densation. Present status and prospects. HIRLAM Newsletter 52, 50-56. Available at: http://hirlam.org/index.php?option=com_ content&view=article&id=64&Itemid=101. Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
  • Jung, T. and Leutbecher, M. 2008. Scale-dependent verification of en-semble forecasts. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134, 973–984.
  • Jung, T., Klinker, E. and Uppala, S. 2005. Reanalysis and reforecast of three major European storms of the twentieth century using ECMWF forecasting system. Part 11: Ensemble forecasts. Meteorol. AppL 12, 111–122.
  • Kain, J. S., 2004. The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization. An Update. J. AppL Meteor. 43, 170–181.
  • Kolstad, E. W. 2006. A new climatology of favourable conditions for reverse-shear polar lows. Tellus 58A, 344–354.
  • Lean, H. W., Clark, P. A., Dixon, M., Roberts, N. M., Fitch, A. and co-authors. 2008. Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 3408-3424.
  • Leduc, M. and Laprise, R. 2009. Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size. Clim Dyn. 32, 833–854.
  • Linders, T. and Saetra, O. 2010. Can CAPE maintain polar lows? J. Atmos. Sci. 67, 2559-2571. (Referred to as LS10 in the text.)
  • Lopez, P. 2008. Comparison of OPERA precipitation radar composites to CMORPH, SYNOP and ECMWF model data. ECMWF Technical Memorandum 569. Available at: www.ecmwf.int/publications. Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
  • Mass, C. F., Ovens, D., Westrick, K. and Colle, B. A. 2002. Does in-creasing horizontal resolution produce more skillful forecasts. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83, 407–430.
  • McCabe, A. and Brown, A. R. 2007. The role of surface heterogeneity in modeling the stable boundary layer. Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 122, 517–534.
  • King, J. C., Connolley, W. M. and Derbyshire, S. H. 2001. Sensitiv-ity of modeled Antarctic climate to surface and boundary-layer flux parameterizations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127, 779–794.
  • Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N. and Petroliagis, T. 1996. The ECMWF ensemble prediction system; methodology and validation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122, 73–119.
  • Montgomery, M. T. and Farrell, B. E 1992. Polar low dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci. 49, 2484–2505.
  • Nielsen, N. W. 1997. An early-autumn polar low formation over the Norwegian Sea. J. Geophys. Res. 102 (D12), 13,955-13, 973.
  • Noer, G. and Ovhed, M. 2003. Forecasting of polar lows in the Norwe-gian and the Barents Sea. In: Proceedings of the 9th meeting of EGS Polar Lows Working Group, Cambridge, UK. Available at: http://www.uni-trier.de/index.php?id=28161#c60628. Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
  • Nordeng, T. E. 1990. A model-based diagnostic study of the develop-ment and maintenance mechanism of two polar lows. Tellus 42A, 92–108.
  • Nordeng, T. E. and Rasmussen, E. A. 1992. A most beautiful polar low: a case study of a polar low development in the Bear Island region. Tellus 44A, 81–99.
  • Okland, H., 1977. On the intensification of small-scale cyclones formed in very cold air masses heated by the ocean. Institute Report Series, Vol. 26, Department of Geophysics, University of Oslo.
  • Orrell, D., Smith, L., Barkmeijer, J. and Palmer, T. N. 2001. Model error in weather forecasting. NonL Process. Geophys. 8, 357–371.
  • Paillux, J., Andersson, E. and Ondras, M. (eds.) 2008. Proceedings of the fourth WMO workshop on the impact of various observing systems on Numerical Weather Prediction. WMO Report WMO/TD No. 1450. Available at: www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/OSY/Reports/NWP-4_Geneva2008_index.html. Last accessed 28 Dec2010.
  • Polar Low Special Issue. 1985. Tellus 37A, 393–477.
  • Rabbe, A. 1975. Arctic instability lows. Meteorologiske Annaler 6, 303–329.
  • Rasch, P. J. and Kristjansson, J. E. 1998. A comparison of the CCM3 model climate using diagnosed and predicted condensate parameter-izations. J. Climate 11, 1587–1614.
  • Rasmussen, E. A. 1979. The polar low as an extratropical CISK distur-bance. Q. J. R. MeteoroL Soc. 105, 531–549.
  • Rasmussen, E. A. 1983. A review of meso-scale disturbances in cold air masses. In: Mesoscale meteorology - theories, observations and models (eds D. K. Lilly and T. Gal-Chen) D. Reidel Publishing Co. Dordrecht, Holland, 247-283.
  • Rassmussen, E. A. and Turner, J. (eds.). 2003. Polar Lows: Mesoscale Weather Systems in the Polar Regions. Cambridge University Press, 612 pp.
  • Roberts, N. M. 2000. The relationship between water vapour imagery and thunderstorms. Internal Report (JCMM) no. 110. Available at: www.metoffice.gov.uk. Last accessed 28 Dec2010.
  • Roberts, N. 2003. The impact of a change to the use of the convec-tion scheme to high resolution simulations of convective events. Stage 2 report from the strom-scale numerical modelling project. Met Office Technical Report no. 407. Available at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk. Last accessed 28 Dec2010.
  • Roberts, N. 2007. Meteorological components in forecasts of ex-treme convective rainfall using 12-km and 1-km NVVP mod-els: a tale of two storms. Met Office Technical Report no. 520. Available at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk. Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
  • Roberts, N. M. and Lean, H. W. 2008. Scale-selective verification of rainfall accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 78–97.
  • Shapiro, M. A., Fedor, L. S. and Hampel, T. 1987. Researching aircraft measurements of a polar low over the Norwegian Sea. Tellus 39A, 272–306.
  • Sorland, S. L. 2009. High-resolution ensemble forecasts of a polar low by non-hydrostatic downscaling. Master thesis in Geo-sciences, Meteorology and Oceanography. Department of Geo-sciences, University of Oslo. Available at: http://www.duo.uio.no/sok/work.html?WORKID=95171. Last accessed 28 Dec2010.
  • Tijm, S. 2004. Hirlam pseudo satellite images. HIRLAM Newsletter 46, 59–64.
  • Unden, P., Rounto, L., Järvinen, H., Lynch, P., Calvo, J. and co-authors. 2002. HIRLAM-5 Scientific Documentation, HIRLAM-5 project, do Per Unden SMHI, S-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden.
  • van der Grijn, G. 2002. Tropical cyclone forecasting at ECMWF: new products and validation. ECMWF Technical Memorandum 386. Avail-able at: www.ecmwf.int/publications. Last accessed 28 Dec 2010. Wilhelmsen, K. 1985. Climatological study of gale-producing polar lows near Norway. Tellus 37A, 451–459.
  • Xue, Y., Vasic, R., Janjic, Z., Mesinger, E and Mitchell, K. E. 2007. Assessment of dynamic downscaling of the continental U.S. regional climate using the Eta/SSiB Regional Climate Model. J. Clim. 20, 4172-4193.
  • Yanase, W. and Niino, H. 2005. Effects of baroclinicity on the cloud pattern and structure of polar lows: a high-resolution numerical exper-iment. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L02806, 10.1029/2004GL020469.
  • Yanase, W. and Niino, H. 2007. Dependence of polar low development on baroclinicity and physical processes. An idealized high-resolution numerical experiment. J. Atmos. Sci. 64, 3044–3067.
  • Zahn, M. and Storch, H. V. 2008. Tracking polar lows in CLM. Meteo-rologische Zeitschrift, 17, 445–453.
  • Zsoter, E., Buizza, R. and Richardson, R. 2009. “Jumpiness” of the ECMWF and Met Office EPS control and ensemble-mean forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 137, 3823–3836.