84
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
ORIGINAL RESEARCH

Development and Validation of a Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting 3-Month Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

ORCID Icon, , , , ORCID Icon, , & show all
Pages 145-158 | Received 27 Sep 2023, Accepted 11 Jan 2024, Published online: 18 Jan 2024

References

  • Tu WJ, Zhao Z, Yin P, et al. Estimated Burden of Stroke in China in 2020. JAMA Network Open. 2023;6(3):e231455. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.1455
  • Tu WJ, Wang LD; Special Writing Group of China Stroke Surveillance Report. China stroke surveillance report 2021. Mil Med Res. 2023;10(1):33. doi:10.1186/s40779-023-00463-x
  • Bjerkreim AT, Khanevski AN, Thomassen L, et al. Five-year readmission and mortality differ by ischemic stroke subtype. J Neurol Sci. 2019;403:31–37. doi:10.1016/j.jns.2019.06.007
  • Jung YH, Choi HY, Lee KY, et al. Stroke Severity in Patients on Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants with a Standard or Insufficient Dose. Thromb Haemost. 2018;118(12):2145–2151. doi:10.1055/s-0038-1675602
  • Pikija S, Trkulja V, Malojcic B, Mutzenbach JS, Sellner J. A High Burden of Ischemic Stroke in Regions of Eastern/Central Europe is Largely Due to Modifiable Risk Factors. Curr Neurovasc Res. 2015;12(4):341–352. doi:10.2174/1567202612666150731105554
  • Fang MC, Go AS, Chang Y, et al. Thirty-day mortality after ischemic stroke and intracranial hemorrhage in patients with atrial fibrillation on and off anticoagulants. Stroke. 2012;43(7):1795–1799. doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.111.630731
  • Choi SE, Sagris D, Hill A, Lip GYH, Abdul-Rahim AH. Atrial fibrillation and stroke. Expert Rev Cardiovasc Ther. 2023;21(1):35–56. doi:10.1080/14779072.2023.2160319
  • Giugliano RP, Ruff CT, Braunwald E, et al. Edoxaban versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation. N Engl J Med. 2013;369(22):2093–2104. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1310907
  • Steffel J, Collins R, Antz M, et al. 2021 European Heart Rhythm Association Practical Guide on the Use of Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation. Europace. 2021;23(10):1612–1676. doi:10.1093/europace/euab065
  • Kleindorfer DO, Towfighi A, Chaturvedi S, et al. 2021 Guideline for the Prevention of Stroke in Patients With Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack: a Guideline From the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association. Stroke. 2021;52(7):e364–e467. doi:10.1161/STR.0000000000000375
  • Klijn CJ, Paciaroni M, Berge E, et al. Antithrombotic treatment for secondary prevention of stroke and other thromboembolic events in patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack and non-valvular atrial fibrillation: a European Stroke Organisation guideline. Eur Stroke J. 2019;4(3):198–223. doi:10.1177/2396987319841187
  • Yang X, Li Z, Zhao X, et al. Use of Warfarin at Discharge Among Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation in China. Stroke. 2016;47(2):464–470. doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.115.011833
  • Gong X, Chen H, Wang J, et al. Undertreatment of Anticoagulant Therapy in Hospitalized Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients With Atrial Fibrillation. Front Cardiovasc Med. 2022;9:841020. doi:10.3389/fcvm.2022.841020
  • Cappellari M, Turcato G, Forlivesi S, et al. STARTING-SICH Nomogram to Predict Symptomatic Intracerebral Hemorrhage After Intravenous Thrombolysis for Stroke. Stroke. 2018;49(2):397–404. doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.117.018427
  • Jehi L, Yardi R, Chagin K, et al. Development and validation of nomograms to provide individualised predictions of seizure outcomes after epilepsy surgery: a retrospective analysis. Lancet Neurol. 2015;14(3):283–290. doi:10.1016/S1474-4422(14)70325-4
  • Jin G, Hu W, Zeng L, Ma B, Zhou M. Prediction of long-term mortality in patients with ischemic stroke based on clinical characteristics on the first day of ICU admission: an easy-to-use nomogram. Front Neurol. 2023;14:1148185. doi:10.3389/fneur.2023.1148185
  • Li XD, Li MM. A novel nomogram to predict mortality in patients with stroke: a survival analysis based on the MIMIC-III clinical database. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2022;22(1):92. doi:10.1186/s12911-022-01836-3
  • Szlachetka WA, Pana TA, Mamas MA, et al. Predicting 10-year stroke mortality: development and validation of a nomogram. Acta Neurol Belg. 2022;122(3):685–693. doi:10.1007/s13760-021-01752-9
  • Cappellari M, Seiffge DJ, Koga M, et al. A nomogram to predict unfavourable outcome in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation after stroke. Eur Stroke J. 2020;5(4):384–393. doi:10.1177/2396987320945840
  • Cappellari M, Turcato G, Forlivesi S, et al. Introduction of direct oral anticoagulant within 7 days of stroke onset: a nomogram to predict the probability of 3-month modified Rankin Scale score  2. J Thromb Thrombolysis. 2018;46(3):292–298. doi:10.1007/s11239-018-1700-8
  • Jhou HJ, Chen PH, Yang LY, Chang SH, Lee CH. Plasma Anion Gap and Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke: analysis from the MIMIC-IV Database. J Pers Med. 2021;11(10):1004. doi:10.3390/jpm11101004
  • Dabilgou AA, Dravé A, Kyelem JMA, Ouedraogo S, Napon C, Kaboré J. Frequency and Mortality Risk Factors of Acute Ischemic Stroke in Emergency Department in Burkina Faso. Stroke Res Treat. 2020;2020:9745206. doi:10.1155/2020/9745206
  • Huang ZX, Gu HQ, Yang X, Wang CJ, Wang YJ, Li ZX. Risk factors for in-hospital mortality among acute ischemic stroke patients in China: a nationwide prospective study. Neurol Res. 2021;43(5):387–395. doi:10.1080/01616412.2020.1866356
  • Ztriva E, Protopapas A, Mentizis P, et al. Hepatic Fibrosis Is a Risk Factor for Greater Severity and Worse Outcome of Acute Ischemic Stroke. J Clin Med. 2022;11(17):5141. doi:10.3390/jcm11175141
  • Powers WJ, Rabinstein AA, Ackerson T, et al. 2018 Guidelines for the Early Management of Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke: a Guideline for Healthcare Professionals From the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association. Stroke. 2018;49(3):e46–e110. doi:10.1161/STR.0000000000000158
  • Zhang X, Yuan K, Wang H, et al. Nomogram to Predict Mortality of Endovascular Thrombectomy for Ischemic Stroke Despite Successful Recanalization. J Am Heart Assoc. 2020;9(3):e014899. doi:10.1161/JAHA.119.014899
  • Jin G, Hu W, Zeng L, et al. Development and verification of a nomogram for predicting short-term mortality in elderly ischemic stroke populations. Sci Rep. 2023;13(1):12580. doi:10.1038/s41598-023-39781-4
  • Dmytriw AA, Dibas M, Schirmer CM, et al. Age and Acute Ischemic Stroke Outcome in North American Patients With COVID-19. J Am Heart Assoc. 2021;10(14):e021046. doi:10.1161/JAHA.121.021046
  • Tracz J, Gorczyca-Głowacka I, Rosołowska A, Wożakowska-Kapłon B. Long-Term Outcomes after Stroke in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: a Single Center Study. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023;20(4):3491. doi:10.3390/ijerph20043491
  • Li S, Zhao X, Wang C, et al. Risk factors for poor outcome and mortality at 3 months after the ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis. 2013;22(8):e419–e425. doi:10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2013.04.025
  • Dutta D, Cannon A, Bowen E. Validation and comparison of two stroke prognostic models for in hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality. Eur Stroke J. 2017;2(4):327–334. doi:10.1177/2396987317703581
  • Ding GY, Xu JH, He JH, Nie ZY. Clinical scoring model based on age, NIHSS, and stroke-history predicts outcome 3 months after acute ischemic stroke. Front Neurol. 2022;13:935150. doi:10.3389/fneur.2022.935150
  • Khanevski AN, Bjerkreim AT, Novotny V, et al. Recurrent ischemic stroke: incidence, predictors, and impact on mortality. Acta Neurol Scand. 2019;140(1):3–8. doi:10.1111/ane.13093
  • Samuthpongtorn C, Jereerat T, Suwanwela NC. Stroke risk factors, subtypes and outcome in elderly Thai patients. BMC Neurol. 2021;21(1):322. doi:10.1186/s12883-021-02353-y
  • Wang T, Li B, Gu H, et al. Effect of age on long-term outcomes after stroke with atrial fibrillation: a hospital-based follow-up study in China. Oncotarget. 2017;8(32):53684–53690. doi:10.18632/oncotarget.15729
  • Fromm A, Waje-Andreassen U, Thomassen L, Naess H. Comparison between Ischemic Stroke Patients <50 Years and ≥50 Years Admitted to a Single Centre: the Bergen Stroke Study. Stroke Res Treat. 2011;2011:183256. doi:10.4061/2011/183256
  • Dong P, Zhao J, Zhang Y, et al. Aging causes exacerbated ischemic brain injury and failure of sevoflurane post-conditioning: role of B-cell lymphoma-2. Neuroscience. 2014;275:2–11. doi:10.1016/j.neuroscience.2014.05.064
  • Finger CE, Moreno-Gonzalez I, Gutierrez A, Moruno-Manchon JF, McCullough LD. Age-related immune alterations and cerebrovascular inflammation. Mol Psychiatry. 2022;27(2):803–818. doi:10.1038/s41380-021-01361-1
  • Khanevski AN, Bjerkreim AT, Novotny V, et al. Recurrent ischemic stroke: incidence, predictors, and impact on mortality. Acta Neurol Scand. 2019;140(1):3–8.
  • Vinding NE, Kristensen SL, Rørth R, et al. Ischemic Stroke Severity and Mortality in Patients With and Without Atrial Fibrillation. J Am Heart Assoc. 2022;11(4):56.
  • Andersen KK, Andersen ZJ, Olsen TS. Predictors of early and late case-fatality in a nationwide Danish study of 26,818 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke. Stroke. 2011;42(10):2806–2812. doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.111.619049
  • Purroy F, Vena A, Forné C, et al. Age- and Sex-Specific Risk Profiles and In-Hospital Mortality in 13,932 Spanish Stroke Patients. Cerebrovasc Dis. 2019;47(3–4):151–164. doi:10.1159/000500205
  • Bryndziar T, Matyskova D, Sedova P, et al. Predictors of Short- and Long-Term Mortality in Ischemic Stroke: a Community-Based Study in Brno, Czech Republic. Cerebrovasc Dis. 2022;51(3):296–303. doi:10.1159/000519937
  • Lehmann ALCF, Alfieri DF, de Araújo MCM, et al. Immune-inflammatory, coagulation, adhesion, and imaging biomarkers combined in machine learning models improve the prediction of death 1 year after ischemic stroke. Clin Exp Med. 2022;22(1):111–123. doi:10.1007/s10238-021-00732-w
  • Huang GQ, Lin YT, Wu YM, Cheng QQ, Cheng HR, Wang Z. Individualized Prediction Of Stroke-Associated Pneumonia For Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke. Clin Interv Aging. 2019;14:1951–1962. doi:10.2147/CIA.S225039
  • Westendorp WF, Nederkoorn PJ, Vermeij JD, Dijkgraaf MG, van de Beek D. Post-stroke infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMC Neurol. 2011;11:110. doi:10.1186/1471-2377-11-110
  • Warusevitane A, Karunatilake D, Sim J, Lally F, Roffe C. Safety and effect of metoclopramide to prevent pneumonia in patients with stroke fed via nasogastric tubes trial. Stroke. 2015;46(2):454–460. doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.114.006639
  • Lakshminarayan K, Tsai AW, Tong X, et al. Utility of dysphagia screening results in predicting poststroke pneumonia. Stroke. 2010;41(12):2849–2854. doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.110.597039
  • Westendorp WF, Dames C, Nederkoorn PJ, Meisel A. Immunodepression, Infections, and Functional Outcome in Ischemic Stroke. Stroke. 2022;53(5):1438–1448. doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.122.038867
  • Barlas RS, Loke YK, Mamas MA, et al. Effect of Antiplatelet Therapy (Aspirin + Dipyridamole Versus Clopidogrel) on Mortality Outcome in Ischemic Stroke. Am J Cardiol. 2018;122(6):1085–1090. doi:10.1016/j.amjcard.2018.05.043
  • Tinker RJ, Smith CJ, Heal C, et al. Predictors of mortality and disability in stroke-associated pneumonia. Acta Neurol Belg. 2021;121(2):379–385. doi:10.1007/s13760-019-01148-w
  • Hannawi Y, Hannawi B, Rao CP, Suarez JI, Bershad EM. Stroke-associated pneumonia: major advances and obstacles. Cerebrovasc Dis. 2013;35(5):430–443. doi:10.1159/000350199
  • Kim YH, Roh SY. The Mechanism of and Preventive Therapy for Stroke in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation. J Stroke. 2016;18(2):129–137. doi:10.5853/jos.2016.00234
  • Baturova MA, Lindgren A, Carlson J, Shubik YV, Bertil Olsson S, Platonov PG. Non-permanent atrial fibrillation and oral anticoagulant therapy are related to survival during 10 years after first-ever ischemic stroke. Int J Cardiol. 2017;232:134–139. doi:10.1016/j.ijcard.2017.01.040
  • Arnao V, Agnelli G, Paciaroni M. Direct oral anticoagulants in the secondary prevention of stroke and transient ischemic attack in patients with atrial fibrillation. Intern Emerg Med. 2015;10(5):555–560. doi:10.1007/s11739-015-1226-4
  • Kapil N, Datta YH, Alakbarova N, et al. Antiplatelet and Anticoagulant Therapies for Prevention of Ischemic Stroke. Clin Appl Thromb Hemost. 2017;23(4):301–318. doi:10.1177/1076029616660762
  • Li X, Pathadka S, Man KKC, et al. Comparative Outcomes Between Direct Oral Anticoagulants, Warfarin, and Antiplatelet Monotherapy Among Chinese Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: a Population-Based Cohort Study. Drug Saf. 2020;43(10):1023–1033. doi:10.1007/s40264-020-00961-0
  • Goulart AC, Olmos RD, Santos IS, et al. The impact of atrial fibrillation and long-term oral anticoagulant use on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: a 12-year evaluation of the prospective Brazilian Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity. Int J Stroke. 2022;17(1):48–58. doi:10.1177/1747493021995592
  • Jame S, Barnes G. Stroke and thromboembolism prevention in atrial fibrillation. Heart. 2020;106(1):10–17. doi:10.1136/heartjnl-2019-314898
  • Lip GYH, Keshishian A, Li X, et al. Effectiveness and Safety of Oral Anticoagulants Among Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Patients. Stroke. 2018;49(12):2933–2944. doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.118.020232
  • Oldgren J, Åsberg S, Hijazi Z, et al. Early Versus Delayed Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulant Therapy After Acute Ischemic Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation (TIMING): a Registry-Based Randomized Controlled Noninferiority Study. Circulation. 2022;146(14):1056–1066. doi:10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.060666
  • Wilson D, Ambler G, Banerjee G, et al. Early versus late anticoagulation for ischaemic stroke associated with atrial fibrillation: multicentre cohort study. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2019;90(3):320–325. doi:10.1136/jnnp-2018-318890
  • Yasaka M, Minematsu K, Toyoda K, et al. Rivaroxaban administration after acute ischemic stroke: the RELAXED study. PLoS One. 2019;14(2):e0212354. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0212354
  • Tan WS, Ahmad A, Feber A, et al. Development and validation of a haematuria cancer risk score to identify patients at risk of harbouring cancer. J Intern Med. 2019;285(4):436–445.
  • Zou J, Chen H, Liu C, et al. Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the 30-day mortality risk of patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. Front Neurosci. 2022;16:942100. doi:10.3389/fnins.2022.942100
  • Chandriah H, Kumolosasi E, Islahudin F, Makmor-Bakry M. Effectiveness and safety of a 10mg warfarin initiation nomogram in Asian population. Pak J Pharm Sci. 2015;28(3):927–932.
  • Monkman K, Lazo-Langner A, Kovacs MJ. A 10 mg warfarin initiation nomogram is safe and effective in outpatients starting oral anticoagulant therapy for venous thromboembolism. Thromb Res. 2009;124(3):275–280. doi:10.1016/j.thromres.2008.12.001
  • Yamal JM, Grotta JC. National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale as an Outcome Measure for Acute Stroke Trials. Stroke. 2021;52(1):142–143. doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.120.032994
  • Chalos V, van der Ende NAM, Lingsma HF, et al. National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale: an Alternative Primary Outcome Measure for Trials of Acute Treatment for Ischemic Stroke. Stroke. 2020;51(1):282–290. doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.119.026791