Hidden Overhang of Domestic Debt and Its Role in the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome: An Empirical Contingent Liabilities Model

References

• Abarbanel, H. D. I. 1995. Analysis of Observed Chaotic Data. New York: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Akçay, O. C.; C. E. Alper; and S. Özmucur. 2001. "Budget Deficit, Inflation, and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Turkey, 1970-2000." In Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey, ed. A. Kibritçioğlu, L. Rittenberg, and F. Selçuk, pp. 77-96. Aldershot, UK: Ashgate.
   Google Scholar
• Akyüz, Y., and K. Boratav. 2003. "The Making of the Turkish Financial Crisis." World Development 31, no. 9: 1549-1566.
   Google Scholar
• Alt, J.; D. D. Lassen; and J. Wehner, J. 2012. "Moral Hazard in an Economic Union: Politics, Economics, and Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe." Political Science and Political Economy Working Paper no. 5/2012, London School of Economics, London.
   Google Scholar
• Anderson, J. E. 2003. "Tax Offsets or Netting Operations in Post-Soviet Public Finance." Emerging Markets Finance & Trade 39, no. 3: 27-41.
   Google Scholar
• Atiyas, I., and S. Sayın. 1997. "Siyasi sorumluluk, yönetsel sorumluluk ve bütçe sistemi: Bir eniden yapılanma önerisine doğru" [Political Accountability, Managerial Accountability and the Budget System: Towards a Proposal for Restructuring]. TESEV (available at www.tesev.org.tr/assets/publications/file/Siyasi%20Sorumluluk,%20Y%C3%B6netsel%20Sorumluluk%20ve%20B%C3%BCt%C3%A7e%20Sistemi_01.05.1997.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Bjorgvinsson, J. R. 2004. Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 Companion Material: The Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 and Its Relationship with the European System of Accounts 1995. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
   Google Scholar
• Blejer, M., and A. Cheasty. 1991. "The Measurement of Fiscal Deficits: Analytical and Methodological Issues." Journal of Economic Literature 29, no. 4: 1644-1678.
   Google Scholar
• Buti, M.; J. N. Martins; and A. Turrini. 2007. "From Deficits to Debt and Back: Political Incentives Under Numerical Fiscal Rules." CESifo Economic Studies 53, no. 1: 115-152.
   Google Scholar
• Çapoğlu, G. 2004. "Anatomy of a Failed IMF Program: The 1999 Program in Turkey." Emerging Markets Finance & Trade 40, no. 3: 84-100.
   Google Scholar
• Das, T.; A. Bisen; M. R. Nair; and R. Kumar. 2002. Contingent Liability Management: A Study on India. London: Commonwealth Secretariat.
   Google Scholar
• de Castro, F.; J. J. Pérez; and M. Rodríguez-Vives. 2011. "Fiscal Data Revisions in Europe." Working Paper no. 1342, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.
   Google Scholar
• Demir, M. V. 2004. "4749 Sayılı kamu finansmanı ve borç yönetiminin düzenlenmesi hakkında kanunun getirdiği yenilikler, önceki mevzuat ile karşılaştırılması" [No. 4749 on the Regulation of Public Finance and Debt Management Innovations Introduced by the Law, Comparison with Previous Legislation]. Research Report on the State Budget of Expertise, Ministry of Finance, General Directorate of Budget and Fiscal Control, Ankara, March (available at www.mud.org.tr/uploads/yuklemeler/Mdemir.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Easterly, W. 1999. "When Is Fiscal Adjustment an Illusion?" Economic Policy 14, no. 28: 55-86.
   Google Scholar
• Eckmann, J.-P., and D. Ruelle. 1985. "Ergodic Theory of Chaos and Strange Attractors." Reviews of Modern Physics 57, no. 3 (part 1): 617-656.
   Google Scholar
• Eckmann, J.-P.; S. O. Kamphorst; and D. Ruelle. 1987. "Recurrence Plots of Dynamical Systems." Europhysics Letters 4, no. 9: 973-977.
   Google Scholar
• Eichengreen, B. 2001. "Crisis Prevention and Management: Any New Lessons from Argentina and Turkey?" Background paper for Global Development Finance 2002, World Bank, Washington, DC.
   Google Scholar
• Ersel, H., and F. Özatay. 2008. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Turkey." Emerging Markets Finance & Trade 44, no. 6: 38-51.
   Google Scholar
• Ertuğrul, A., and F. Selçuk. 2001. "A Brief Account of the Turkish Economy, 1980-2000." Russian & East European Finance and Trade 37, no. 6: 6-30.
   Google Scholar
• European Commission. 2003. European Economy: Public Finances in EMU 2003. Brussels: European Commission.
   Google Scholar
• Eurostat. 2010. Manual on Government Deficit and Debt. Luxembourg.
   Google Scholar
• Eurostat. 2013. Stock/Flow Adjustment (SFA) for the Member States, the Euro Area and the EU27 for the Period 2009-2012. Luxembourg.
   Google Scholar
• Evrensel, A. Y. 2004. "IMF Programs and Financial Liberalization in Turkey." Emerging Markets Finance & Trade 40, no. 4: 5-19.
   Google Scholar
• Fincke, B., and A. Grenier. 2011. "Debt Sustainability in Germany: Empirical Evidence for Federal States." International Journal of Sustainable Economy 3, no. 2: 235-254.
   Google Scholar
• Freinkman, L. M.; G. Gyulumyan; and A. Kyurumyan. 2003. "Quasi-Fiscal Activities, Hidden Government Subsidies, and Fiscal Adjustment in Armenia." Working Paper no. 16, World Bank, Washington, DC.
   Google Scholar
• Gencay, R., and W. D. Dechert. 1992. "An Algorithm for the n Lyapunov Exponents of an n-Dimensional Unknown Dynamical System." Physica D 59, nos. 1-3: 142-157.
   Google Scholar
• Gürbüz, Y.; T. Jobert; and R. Tuncer. 2007. "Public Debt in Turkey: Evaluation and Perspectives." Applied Economics 39, no. 3: 343-359.
   Google Scholar
• Hegger, R.; H. Kantz; and T. Schreiber. 1999. "Practical Implementation of Nonlinear Time Series Methods: The TISEAN Package." Chaos 9, no. 2: 413-435.
   Google Scholar
• International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2000. "Turkey: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix." Country Report no. 00/14, Washington, DC.
   Google Scholar
• International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2002. "Turkey: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes—Data Module; Response by the Authorities, and Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework." Country Report no. 02/55, Washington, DC.
   Google Scholar
• International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2011. "Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks." Fiscal Monitor (September): 1-79.
   Google Scholar
• Irwin, T. C. 2012. "Accounting Devices and Fiscal Illusions." Staff Discussion Note no. 12/02, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
   Google Scholar
• Jaeger, A., and L. Schuknecht. 2007. "Boom-Bust Phases in Asset Prices and Fiscal Policy Behavior." Emerging Markets Finance & Trade 43, no. 6: 45-66.
   Google Scholar
• Jeanne, O., and A. Guscina. 2006. "Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries: A New Data Set." Working Paper no. 06/98, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
   Google Scholar
• Kantz, H. 1994. "A Robust Method to Estimate the Maximal Lyapunov Exponent of a Time Series." Physics Letters A, 185, no. 1: 77-87.
   Google Scholar
• Kantz, H., and T. Schreiber. 1997. Nonlinear Time Series Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Keyder, N. 2003. "A Note on the Debt Sustainability Issue in Turkey." Working Paper no. 03/02, Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, Ankara.
   Google Scholar
• Kharas, H., and D. Mishra. 2001. "Fiscal Policy, Hidden Deficits, and Currency Crises." In World Bank Economists' Forum, ed. S. Devarajan, F. H. Rogers, and L. Squire, pp. 31-48. Washington, DC: World Bank.
   Google Scholar
• Koen, V.; and P. van den Noord. 2005. "Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe: One-Off Measures and Creative Accounting." Working Paper no. 417, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris.
   Google Scholar
• Mehl, A., and J. Reynaud. 2005. "The Determinants of ‘Domestic’ Original Sin in Emerging Market Economies." Working Paper no. 560, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.
   Google Scholar
• Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. 2004. "Good, Bad or Ugly? On the Effects of Fiscal Rules with Creative Accounting." Journal of Public Economics 88, nos. 1-2: 377-394.
   Google Scholar
• Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., and K. Moriyama. 2006. "Fiscal Adjustment in EU Countries: A Balance Sheet Approach." Journal of Banking and Finance 30, no. 12: 3281-3298.
   Google Scholar
• Ozkan, F. G. 2005. "Currency and Financial Crises in Turkey 2000-2001: Bad Fundamentals or Bad Luck?" World Economy 28, no. 4: 541-572.
   Google Scholar
• Payne, J. E.; H. Mohammadi; and M. Cak. 2008. "Turkish Budget Deficit Sustainability and the Revenue-Expenditure Nexus." Applied Economics 40, no. 7: 823-830.
   Google Scholar
• Polackova, H. 1998. "Contingent Government Liabilities: A Hidden Risk for Fiscal Stability." Working Paper no. 1989, World Bank, Washington, DC.
   Google Scholar
• Polackova Brixi, H., and A. Mody. 2002. "Dealing with Government Fiscal Risk: An Overview." In Government at Risk: Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk, ed. H. Polackova Brixi and A. Schick, pp. 21-59. Washington, DC: World Bank.
   Google Scholar
• Polackova Brixi, H.; H. Ghanem; and R. Islam. 2001. "Fiscal Adjustment and Contingent Government Liabilities: Case Studies of the Czech Republic and FYR Macedonia." In World Bank Economists' Forum, ed. S. Devarajan, F. H. Rogers, and L. Squire, pp. 49-77. Washington, DC: World Bank.
   Google Scholar
• Reinhart, C. M., and K. S. Rogoff. 2008. "This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises." Working Paper no. 13882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
   Google Scholar
• Reinhart, C. M., and K. S. Rogoff. 2011a. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt." Economic Journal 121, no. 552: 319-350.
   Google Scholar
• Reinhart, C. M., and K. S. Rogoff. 2011b. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis." American Economic Review 101, no. 5: 1676-1706.
   Google Scholar
• Reinhart, C. M.; K. S. Rogoff; and M. A. Savastano. 2003. "Debt Intolerance." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1: 1-62.
   Google Scholar
• Seiferling, M. 2013. "Stock-Flow Adjustments, Government's Integrated Balance Sheet and Fiscal Transparency." Working Paper no. 13/63, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
   Google Scholar
• Takens, F. 1981. "Detecting Strange Attractors in Turbulence." In Dynamical Systems and Turbulence, ed. D. A. Rand and L.-S. Young, pp. 366-381. Berlin: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Turkish Court of Accounts (TCA). 1999. "Annual Treasury Operations Report 1999." Ankara, October (available at www.sayistay.gov.tr/rapor/hazine/islemler/1999/1999hazineislem.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Turkish Court of Accounts (TCA). 2000. "Annual Treasury Operations Report 2000." Ankara, October (available at www.sayistay.gov.tr/rapor/diger/2000malirapor.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Turkish Court of Accounts (TCA). 2002. "Annual Treasury Operations Report 2001." Ankara, October (available at www.sayistay.gov.tr/rapor/hazine/islemler/2001/2001hazineislem.pdf
   Google Scholar
• von Hagen, J., and G. B. Wolff. 2006. "What Do Deficits Tell Us About Debt? Empirical Evidence on Creative Accounting with Fiscal Rules in the EU." Journal of Banking and Finance 30, no. 12: 3259-3279.
   Google Scholar
• Voyvoda, E., and E. Yeldan. 2005. "Managing Turkish Debt: An OLG Investigation of the IMF's Fiscal Programming Model for Turkey." Journal of Policy Modeling 27, no. 6: 743-765.
   Google Scholar
• Wolf, A.; J. B. Swift; H. L. Swinney; and J. A. Vastano. 1985. "Determining Lyapunov Exponents from a Time Series." Physica D 16, no. 3: 285-317.
   Google Scholar