Inflation, Output Growth, and Their Uncertainties: Empirical Evidence for a Causal Relationship from European Emerging Economies

References

• Ajevskis, V. 2007. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Latvia." Working Paper no. 2007/04, Latvijas Banka, Riga.
   Google Scholar
• Asghar, A.; K. Ahmad; S. Ullah; B. Bedi-uz-Zaman; and M. T. Rashid. 2011. "The Relationship Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: A Case Study for SAARC Region Countries." International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 66: 85-98.
   Google Scholar
• Baharumshah, A. Z.; A. Hasanov; and S. Fountas. 2011. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from Two Transition Economies." Discussion Paper no. 2011/05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Thessaloniki.
   Google Scholar
• Ball, L. 1992. "Why Does High Inflation Raise Inflation Uncertainty?" Journal of Monetary Economics 29, no. 3: 371-388.
   Google Scholar
• Berument, M.; Y. Yalcin; and J. Yildirim. 2011. "The Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Relationship for Turkey: A Dynamic Framework." Empirical Economics 41, no. 2: 293-309.
   Google Scholar
• Black, F. 1987. Business Cycles and Equilibrium. New York: Basil Blackwell.
   Google Scholar
• Blackburn, K. 1999. "Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-Run Growth?" The Economic Journal 109, no. 452: 67-77.
   Google Scholar
• Bollerslev, T. 1986. "Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity." Journal of Econometrics 31, no. 3: 307-327.
   Google Scholar
• Caporale, G. M.; L. Onorante; and P. Paesani. 2010. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area." Working Paper no. 2720, CESifo, Munich.
   Google Scholar
• Cukierman, A., and S. Gerlach. 2003. "The Inflation Bias Revisited: Theory and Some International Evidence." Manchester School 71, no. 5: 541-565.
   Google Scholar
• Cukierman, A., and A. Meltzer. 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation Under Discretion and Asymmetric Information." Econometrica 54, no. 5: 1099-1128.
   Google Scholar
• Davis, G., and B. Kanago. 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts." Economic Inquiry 38, no. 1: 58-72.
   Google Scholar
• de Melo, M.; C. Denizer; A. Gelb; and S. Tenev. 2001. "Circumstance and Choice: The Role of Initial Conditions and Policies in Transition Economies." World Bank Economic Review 15, no. 1: 1-31.
   Google Scholar
• Devereux, M. 1989. "A Positive Theory of Inflation and Inflation Variance." Economic Inquiry 27, no. 1: 105-116.
   Google Scholar
• Dibooglu, S., and A. M. Kutan. 2005. "Sources of Inflation and Output Movements in Poland and Hungary: Policy Implications for Accession to the Economic and Monetary Union." Journal of Macroeconomics 27, no. 1: 107-131.
   Google Scholar
• Dotsey, M., and P. Sarte. 2000. "Inflation Uncertainty and Growth in a Cash-in-Advance Economy." Journal of Monetary Economics 45, no. 3: 631-655.
   Google Scholar
• Engle, R. F.; D. M. Lilien; and R. P. Robins. 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The ARCH-M Model." Econometrica 55, no. 2: 391-407.
   Google Scholar
• Erkam, S., and T. Cavusoglu. 2008. "Modelling Inflation Uncertainty in Transition Economies: The Case of Russia and the Former Soviet Republics." Economic Annals 53, nos. 178-179: 44-71.
   Google Scholar
• Evans, M. 1991. "Discovering the Link Between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 23, no. 2: 169-184.
   Google Scholar
• Fountas, S., and M. Karanasos. 2007. "Inflation, Output Growth, and Nominal and Real Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence for the G7." Journal of International Money and Finance 26, no. 2: 229-250.
   Google Scholar
• Fountas, S.; M. Karanasos; and J. Kim. 2006. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance." Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 68, no. 3: 319-343.
   Google Scholar
• Friedman, M. 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment." Journal of Political Economy 85, no. 3: 451-472.
   Google Scholar
• Genc, I., and M. Balcilar. 2012. "Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting in Turkey." Emerging Markets Finance & Trade 48, supp. 5: 35-47.
   Google Scholar
• Gillman, M., and M. N. Harris. 2008. "The Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries." Cardiff Economics Working Paper no. E2008/25. Cardiff Business School, Cardiff, UK.
   Google Scholar
• Grier, K. B., and M. J. Perry. 1998. "On Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the G7 Countries." Journal of International Money and Finance 17, no. 4: 671-689.
   Google Scholar
• Grier, K. B.; O. T. Henry; N. Olekalns; and K. Shields. 2004. "The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth." Journal of Applied Econometrics 19, no. 5: 551-565.
   Google Scholar
• Hafer, R. W. 1986. "Inflation Uncertainty and a Test of the Friedman Hypothesis." Journal of Macroeconomics 8, no.3: 365-372.
   Google Scholar
• Hartmann, M., and H. Herwartz. 2012. "Causal Relations Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty—Cross Sectional Evidence in Favour of the Friedman-Ball Hypothesis." Economics Letters 115, no. 2: 144-147.
   Google Scholar
• Hartmann, M., and J. Roestel. 2013. "Inflation, Output and Uncertainty in the Era of Inflation Targeting—A Multi-Economy View on Causal Linkages." Journal of International Money and Finance 37: 98-112.
   Google Scholar
• Hasanov, M., and T. Omay. 2011. "The Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth, and Their Uncertainties: Evidence from Selected CEE Countries." Emerging Markets Finance & Trade 47, supp. 3: 5-20.
   Google Scholar
• Holland, S. 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 27, no. 3: 827-837.
   Google Scholar
• Johnson, D. 2002. "The Effect of Inflation Targeting on the Behavior of Expected Inflation: Evidence from an 11 Country Panel." Journal of Monetary Economics 49, no 8: 1521-1538.
   Google Scholar
• Keskek, S., and M. Orhan. 2010. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Turkey." Applied Economics 42, no. 10: 1281-1291.
   Google Scholar
• Khan, M. 2010. "Inflation and Structural Output Growth Variability in Bulgaria." Working paper, Université d'Orléans, Orléans, France.
   Google Scholar
• Khan, M.; M. Kebewar; and N. Nenovsky. 2013. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Comparing Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Eastern Europe." Working paper, Université d'Orléans, Orléans, France.
   Google Scholar
• Mirman, L. J. 1971. "Uncertainty and Optimal Consumption Decisions." Econometrica 39, no. 1: 179-185.
   Google Scholar
• Mladenović, Z. 2009. "Relationship Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: The Case of Serbia." Yugoslav Journal of Operations Research 19, no. 1: 171-183.
   Google Scholar
• Nas, T. F., and M. J. Perry. 2000. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy in Turkey: 1960-1998." Contemporary Economic Policy 18, no. 2: 170-180.
   Google Scholar
• Neanidis, K., and C. Savva. 2010. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Inflation and Growth: Regime-Dependent Effects in the G7." Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper no. 145, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
   Google Scholar
• Neanidis, K., and C. Savva. 2013. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Inflation and Growth: Regime-Dependent Effects in the G7." Journal of Macroeconomics 35: 81-92.
   Google Scholar
• Nelson, D. B. 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach." Econometrica 59, no. 2: 347-370.
   Google Scholar
• Okun, A. 1971. "The Mirage of Steady Inflation." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1971, no. 2: 485-498.
   Google Scholar
• Peltonen, T.; R. Sousa; and I. Vansteenkiste. 2011. "Fundamentals, Financial Factors, and the Dynamics of Investment in Emerging Markets." Emerging Markets Finance & Trade 47, supp. 2: 88-105.
   Google Scholar
• Pindyck, R. 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment." Journal of Economic Literature 29, no. 3: 1110-1148.
   Google Scholar
• Pourgerami, A., and K. E. Maskus. 1987. "The Effects of Inflation on the Predictability of Price Changes in Latin America: Some Estimates and Policy Implications." World Development 15, no. 2: 287-290.
   Google Scholar
• Ungar, M., and B. Zilberfarb. 1993. "Inflation and Its Unpredictability—Theory and Empirical Evidence." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 25, no. 4: 709-720.
   Google Scholar
• Võrk, A. 2000. "Inflation Uncertainty and its Impact on Economic Activity in Estonia." In Transformation of Economic and Political Systems in the Baltic Sea Region: Selected Student Papers II, ed. H. Svege and R. Kinnunen, pp. 281-297. Tartu: Tartu University Press.
   Google Scholar