256
Views
7
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

The first coupled historical forecasting project (CHFP1)

, , , , , & show all
Pages 263-283 | Received 01 Nov 2008, Accepted 04 Aug 2010, Published online: 18 Jan 2011

References

  • Abdella , K. and McFarlane , N. 1996 . Parameterization of the surface‐layer exchange coefficients for atmospheric models . Boun. Layer Meteorol , 80 : 223 – 248 .
  • Barnston , A. G. , Van Den Dool , H. M. , Rodenhuis , D. R. , Ropelewski , C. R. , Kousky , V. E. , O'Lenic , E. A. , Livezey , R. E. , Zebiak , S. E. , Cane , M. A. , Barnett , T. P. , Graham , N. E. , Ji , M. and Leetmaa , A. 1994 . Long‐lead seasonal forecasts – where do we stand? . Bull. Am. Meterol. Soc , 75 : 2097 – 2114 .
  • Barnston , A. G. and Van Den Dool , H. M. 1993 . A degeneracy in cross‐validated skill in regression‐based forecasts . J. Clim , 6 : 963 – 977 .
  • Berg , A. A. , Famiglietti , J. S. , Walker , J. P. and Houser , P. R. 2003 . Impact of bias correction to reanalysis products on simulations of North American soil moisture and hydrological fluxes . J. Geophys. Res , 108 : 4490 doi:10.1029/2002JD003334
  • Boer , G. J. 1995 . “ A hybrid moisture variable suitable for spectral GCMs ” . In Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling , report No. 21, WMO/TD‐No. 665 Geneva : World Meteorological Organization .
  • Boer , G. J. 2005 . An evolving seasonal forecasting system using Bayes’ Theorem . Atmosphere‐Ocean , 43 : 129 – 143 .
  • Boer , G. J. , Flato , G. , Reader , M.C. and Ramsden , D. 2000 . A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: experimental design and comparison with the instrumental record for the 20th century . Clim. Dyn , 16 : 405 – 425 .
  • Boer , G. J. , Flato , G. and Ramsden , D. 2000 . A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate for the 20th century . Clim. Dyn , 16 : 427 – 450 .
  • Boer , G. J. and Hamilton , K. 2008 . QBO influence on extratropical predictive skill . Clim. Dyn , 31 : 987 – 1000 .
  • Carton , J. A. and Giese , B.S. 2008 . A reanalysis of ocean climate using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) . Mon. Weather Rev , 136 : 2999 – 3017 .
  • Derome , J. , Brunet , G. , Plante , A. , Gagnon , N. , Boer , G.J. , Zwiers , F.W. , Lambert , S.J. , Sheng , J. and Ritchie , H. 2001 . Seasonal predictions based on two dynamical models . Atmosphere‐Ocean , 39 : 485 – 501 .
  • Flato , G.M. , Boer , G.J. , Lee , W. , McFarlane , N. , Ramsden , D. and Weaver , A. 2000 . The CCCma global coupled model and its climate . Clim. Dyn , 16 : 451 – 467 .
  • Flato , G.M. and Boer , G.J. 2001 . Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations . Geophys. Res. Lett , 28 : 195 – 198 .
  • Gent , P.R. , Bryan , F.O. , Danabasoglu , G. , Doney , S.C. , Holland , W.R. , Large , W.G. and McWilliams , J.C. 1998 . The NCAr climate system model global ocean component . J. Clim , 11 : 1287 – 1306 .
  • Goddard , L. , Mason , S. , Zebiak , S. , Ropelewski , C. , Basher , R. and Cane , M. 2001 . Current approaches to seasonal to interannual climate predictions . Int. J. Clim , 21 : 1111 – 1152 .
  • Goddard , L. and Mason , S. 2002 . Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies . Clim. Dyn , 19 : 619 – 632 .
  • Guérémy , J. F. , Déqué , M. , Braun , A. and Piedelievre , J.P. 2005 . Actual and potential skill of seasonal predictions using the CNrM contribution to Demeter: coupled versus uncoupled model . Tellus , 57A : 308 – 319 .
  • Holzer , M. 1996 . Optimal spectral topography and its effect on model climate . J. Clim , 9 : 2443 – 2463 .
  • Hurrell , J. W. , Hack , J. J. , Shea , D. , Caron , J. M. and Rosinski , J. 2008 . A new sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary data set for the Community Atmosphere Model . J. Clim , 21 : 5145 – 5153 .
  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) . 2001 . “ Climate Change 2001: the scientific basis ” . In Third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , Cambridge : Cambridge university Press .
  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) . 2007 . Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , Cambridge : Cambridge university Press .
  • Keenlyside , N. S. , Latif , M. , Botzet , M. , Jungclaus , J. and Schulzweida , U. 2005 . A coupled method for initializing El Niño Southern Oscillation forecasts using sea surface temperature . Tellus , 57A : 340 – 356 .
  • Kharin , V. V. and Zwiers , F. 2003 . Improved seasonal probability forecasts . J. Clim , 16 : 1684 – 1701 .
  • Kharin , V. V. , Zwiers , F. W. , Teng , Q. , Boer , G. J. , Derome , J. and Fontecilla , J. S. 2009 . Skill assessment of seasonal hindcasts from the Canadian Historical Forecast Project . Atmosphere–Ocean , 47 : 204 – 223 .
  • Kirtman , B. and Pirani , A. 2008 . WCRP position paper on seasonal prediction , WCrP report No.: 3/2008 23 Geneva : World Meteorological Organization . ICPO Publication No. 127
  • Lin , H. , Brunet , G. and Derome , J. 2008 . Seasonal forecasts of Canadian winter precipitation by post‐processing GCM integrations . Mon. Weather Rev , 136 : 769 – 783 .
  • Mason , S. and Mimmack , G. 2002 . Comparison of some statistical methods of probabilistic forecasting of ENSO . J. Clim , 15 : 8 – 29 .
  • McFarlane , N. , Boer , G. J. , Blanchet , J.‐P. and Lazare , M. 1992 . The Canadian Climate Centre second‐generation general circulation model and its equilibrium climate . J. Clim , 5 : 1013 – 1044 .
  • McFarlane , N. A. , Scinocca , J. F. , Lazare , M. , Harvey , R. , Versegy , D. and Li , J. 2007 . “ The CCCma third generation atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM3) ” . report available at http://www.cccma.ec.gc.ca/models/gcm3.shtml
  • Michaelsen , J. 1987 . Cross‐validation in statistical climate forecast models . J. Appl. Meteorol , 26 : 1589 – 1600 .
  • Oberhuber , J. M. , Roeckner , E. , Christoph , M. , Esch , M. and Latif , M. 1998 . Predicting the ‘97 El Niño event with a global climate model . Geophys. Res. Lett , 25 : 2273 – 2276 .
  • Saha , S. , Nadiga , S. , Thiaw , C. , Wang , J. , Wang , W. , Zhang , Q. , Van Den Dool , H.M. , Pan , H.L. , Moorthi , S. , Behringer , D. , Stokes , D. , Peña , M. , Lord , S. , White , G. , Ebisuzaki , W. , Peng , P. and Xie , P. 2006 . The NCEP Climate Forecast System . J. Clim , 19 : 3483 – 3517 .
  • Scinocca , J. F. and McFarlane , N. A. 2000 . The parameterization of drag induced by stratified flow over anisotropic orography . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , 126 : 2353 – 2393 .
  • Scinocca , J. F. , McFarlane , N. A. , Lazare , M. , LI , J. and Plummer , D. 2008 . The CCCma third generation AGCM and its extension into the middle atmosphere . Atmos. Chem. Phys , 8 : 7055 – 7074 .
  • Shabbar , A. 2006 . The impact of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on the Canadian climate . Adv. Geosci , 6 : 149 – 153 .
  • Shabbar , A. and Khandekar , M. 1996 . The impact of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on the temperature field over Canada . Atmosphere‐Ocean , 34 : 401 – 416 .
  • Tang , Y. , Kleeman , R. and Moore , A.M. 2005 . On the reliability of ENSO dynamical predictions . J. Atmos. Sci , 62 : 1770 – 1791 .
  • Tang , Y. , Kleeman , R. , Moore , A. M. , Vialard , J. and Weaver , A. 2004 . An off‐line, numerically efficient initialization scheme in an oceanic general circulation model for El Niño‐Southern Oscillation prediction . J. Geophys. Res , 109 : C05014 doi:10.1029/2003JC002159
  • Uppala , S.M. , Kallberg , P.W. , Simmons , A.J. , Andrae , U. , Bechtold , V.D. , Fiorino , M. , Gibson , J.K. , Haseler , J. , Hernandez , A. , Kelly , G.A. , LI , X. , Onogi , K. , Saarinen , S. , Sokka , N. , Allan , R.P. , Andersson , E. , Arpe , K. , Balmaseda , M.A. , Beljaars , A.C.M. , Van DE Berg , L. , Bidlot , J. , Bormann , N. , Caires , S. , Chevallier , F. , Dethof , A. , Dragosavac , M. , Fisher , M. , Fuentes , M. , Hagemann , S. , Holm , E. , Hoskins , B.J. , Isaksen , L. , Janssen , P.A.E.M. , Jenne , R. , McNally , A.P. , Mahfouf , J.F. , Morcrette , J.J. , Rayner , N.A. , Saunders , R.W. , Simon , P. , Sterl , A. , Trenberth , K.E. , Untch , A. , Vasiljevic , D. , Viterbo , P. and Woollen , J. 2005 . The ErA‐40 re‐analysis . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , 131 : 2961 – 3012 .
  • Verseghy , D.L. , McFarlane , N.A. and Lazare , M. 1993 . A Canadian Land Surface Scheme for GCMs:II Vegetation model and coupled runs . Int. J. Climatol , 13 : 347 – 370 .
  • WMO (World Meteorological Organization) . 2002 . “ Standardised verification system (SVS) for long‐range forecasts (LrF). New Attachment II‐9 to the ” . In Manual on the GPDS Volume I , (WMO‐No. 485)
  • Zhang , G.J. and McFarlane , N. A. 1995 . Sensitivity of climate simulations to the parameterization of cumulus convection in the CCC‐GCM . Atmosphere‐Ocean , 33 : 407 – 446 .
  • Corresponding author's e‐mail: [email protected]

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.