Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept

References

• Adams B. Bardgett R.D. Ayres E. Wall D.H. Aislabie J. Bamforth S. Bargagli R. Cary C. Cavacini P. Connell L. Convey P. Fell J. Frati F. Hogg I. Newsham N. O'Donnell A. Russell N. Seppelt R. Stevens M.I. Diversity and distribution of Victoria Land biota. Soil Biology and Biochemistry. 2006; 38: 3003–3018. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Adhikari B.N. Wall D.H. Adams B.J. Desiccation survival in an Antarctic nematode: molecular analysis using expressed sequenced tags. Bmc Genomics. 2009; 10: 18.10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Adhikari B.N. Wall D.H. Adams B.J. Effect of slow desiccation and freezing on gene transcription and stress survival of an Antarctic nematode. Journal of Experimental Biology. 2010; 213: 1803–1812. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Agardy M.T. Advances in marine conservation: the role of marine protected areas. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 1994; 9: 267–270. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Anderson B. Akçakaya H. Araújo M. Fordham D. Martinez-Meyer E. Thuiller W. Brook B. Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B. 2009; 276: 1415–1420. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Anderson J.B. Shipp S.S. Lowe A.L. Wellner J.S. Mosola A.B. The Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum and its subsequent retreat history: a review. Quaternary Science Reviews. 2002; 21: 49–70. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Andrássy I. Nematodes in the sixth continent. Journal of Nematode Morphology and Systematics. 1998; 1: 107–187.
   Google Scholar
• Angilletta M.J. Thermal adaptation: a theoretical and empirical synthesis. Oxford University Press. Oxford, 2009
   Google Scholar
• Antonov J.I, Seidov D, Boyer, T.P, Locarnini, R.A, Mishonov A.V, Garcia H.E, Baranova O.K, Zweng M.M. & Johnson D.R. 2010. World Ocean atlas 2009. Vol. 2. Salinity. WashingtonDC: US Government Printing Office.
   Google Scholar
• Araújo M.B. Pearson R.G. Thuillers W. Erhard M. Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Global Change Biology. 2005; 11: 1504–1513. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Arrigo K.R. Thomas D.N. Large-scale importance of sea ice biology in the Southern Ocean. Antarctic Science. 2004; 16: 471–486. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Arrigo K.R, van Dijken G.L, Ainley D.G, Fahnestock M.A. & Markus T. 2002. Ecological impact of a large Antarctic iceberg. Geophysical Research Letters. 29, article no. 1104, 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Arrigo K.R, van Dijken G.L. & Bushinsky S. 2008. Primary production in the Southern Ocean, 1997–2006. Journal of Geophysical Research—Oceans. 113, C08004, 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Arrigo K.R, van Dijken G.L. & Long M. 2008. Coastal Southern Ocean: a strong anthropogenic CO2 sink. Geophysical Research Letters. 35, I.21602, 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Atkinson A. Siegel V. Pakhomov E. Rothery P. Long-term decline in krill stock and increase in salps within the Southern Ocean. Nature. 2004; 432: 100–103. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baird N.A, Etter P.D, Atwood T.S, Currey M.C, Shiver A.L, Lewis Z.A, Selker E.U, Cresko W.A. & Johnson E.A. 2008. Rapid SNP discovery and genetic mapping using sequenced RAD markers. PLoS One. 3, e3376, 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Barbraud C. Weimerskirch H. Emperor penguins and climate change. Nature. 2001; 411: 183–185. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barnes D.K.A. & Clarke A. 2011. Antarctic marine biology. Current Biology. 21, R451–457, 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Barnes D.K.A. Peck L.S. Vulnerability of Antarctic shelf biodiversity to predicted regional warming. Climate Research. 2008; 37: 149–163. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barnes D.K.A. Conlan K.E. Disturbance, colonization and development of Antarctic benthic communities. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 2007; 362: 11–38. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barrett J.E. Virginia R.A. Wall D.H. Doran P.T. Fountain A.G. Welch K.A. Lyons W.B. Persistent effects of a discrete warming event on a polar desert ecosystem. Global Change Biology. 2008; 14: 2249–2261. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bilyk K.T. DeVries A.L. Heat tolerance and its plasticity in Antarctic fishes. Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology Part A. 2010; 158: 382–390. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Block W. Cold tolerance of insects and other arthropods. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 1990; 326: 613–633. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Block W. Convey P. The biology, life cycle and ecophysiology of the Antarctic mite Alaskozetes antarcticus (Michael). Journal of Zoology. 1995; 236: 431–449. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bokhorst S. Huiskes A. Convey P. Sinclair B.J. Lebouvier M. van de Vijver B. Wall D.H. Microclimate impacts of passive warming methods in Antarctica: implications for climate change studies. Polar Biology. 2011; 34: 1421–1435. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Bowden D.A. Clarke A. Peck L.S. Seasonal variation in the diversity and abundance of pelagic larvae of Antarctic benthic marine invertebrates. Marine Biology. 2009; 156: 2033–2047. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bracegirdle T.J, Connolley W.M. & Turner J. 2008. Antarctic climate change over the twenty first century. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres. 113, D03103, 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Brandt A. Gutt J. Biodiversity of a unique environment: the Southern Ocean benthos shaped and threatened by climate change. Biodiversity hotspots: distribution and protection of conservation priority areas. Zachos F.E. Habel J.C. Springer. Heidelberg, 2011; 503–521.
   Google Scholar
• Brierley A.S. Thomas D.N. On the ecology of Southern Ocean pack ice. Advances in Marine Biology. 2002; 43: 171–278.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brown K.M. Fraser K.P.P. Barnes D.K.A. Peck L.S. Links between the structure of an Antarctic shallow-water community and ice-scour frequency. Oecologia. 2004; 141: 121–129. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Burns G. Thorne M.A.S. Hillyard G. Clark M.S. Convey P. Worland M.R. Gene expression associated with changes in cold tolerance levels of the Antarctic springtail. Cryptopygus antarcticus. Insect Molecular Biology. 2010; 19: 113–120. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Burrough P.A. McDonell R.A. Principles of geographical information systems. Oxford University Press. New York, 1998
   Google Scholar
• Butchart S.H.M. Walpole M. Collen B. van Strien A. Scharlemann J.P.W. Almond R.E.A. Baillie J.E.M. Bomhard B. Brown C. Bruno J. Carpenter K.E. Carr G.M. Chanson J. Chenery A.M. Csirke J. Davidson N.C. Dentener F. Foster M. Galli A. Galloway J.N. Genovesi P. Gregory R.D. Hockings M. Kapos V. Lamarque J.-F. Leverington F. Loh J. McGeoch M.A. McRae L. Minasyan A. Hernández Morcillo M. Oldfield T.E.E. Pauly D. Quader S. Revenga C. Sauer J.R. Skolnik B. Spear D. Stanwell-Smith D. Stuart S.N. Symes A. Tierney M. Tyrrell T.D. Vié J.-C. Watson R. Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines. Science. 2010; 328: 1164–1168. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chapelle G. Peck L.S. Polar gigantism dictated by oxygen availability. Nature. 1999; 399: 114–115. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen Z.Z. Cheng C.H.C. Zhang J.F. Cao L.X. Chen L. Zhou L.H. Jin Y.D. Ye H. Deng C. Dai Z.H. Xu Q.H. Hu P. Sun S.H. Shen Y. Chen L.B. Transcriptomic and genomic evolution under constant cold in Antarctic notothenioid fish. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2008; 105: 12944–12949. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cheng C.H. di Prisco G. Verde C. Cold-adapted Antarctic fish: the discovery of neuroglobin in the dominant suborder Notothenioidei. Gene. 2009; 433: 100–101. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Chesson P.L. Warner R.R. Environmental variability promotes coexistence in lottery competetive systems. American Naturalist. 1981; 117: 923–943. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cheung W.W.L. Close C. Kearney K. Lam V. Sarmiento J. Watson R. Pauly D. Projections of global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish and Fisheries. 2009; 10: 235–251. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cheung W.W.L. Dunne J. Sarmiento J.L. Pauly D. Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected changes in maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic. ICES Journal of Marine Science. 2011; 68: 1008–1018. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cheung W.W.L. Lam V. Pauly D. Modelling present and climate-shifted distributions of marine fishes and invertebrates. Fisheries Centre Research Reports 16(3). The Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia. Vancouver, 2008
   Google Scholar
• Chown S.L. Convey P. Spatial and temporal variability across life's hierarchies in the terrestrial Antarctic. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 2007; 362: 2307–2331. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chown S.L. Hoffmann A.A. Kristensen T.N. Angilletta M.J. Jr. Stenseth N.C. Pertoldi C. Adapting to climate change: a perspective from evolutionary physiology. Climate Research. 2010; 43: 3–15. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Clark M.S. Fraser K.P.P. Peck L.S. Lack of an HSP70 heat shock response in two Antarctic marine invertebrates. Polar Biology. 2008; 31: 1059–1065. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Clark M.S. Peck L.S. HSP70 heat shock proteins and environmental stress in Antarctic marine organisms: a mini-review. Marine Genomics. 2009; 2: 11–18. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Clark M.S, Thorne M.A.S, Toullec J.Y, Meng Y, Guan L.L, Peck L.S. & Moore S. 2011. Antarctic krill 454 pyrosequencing reveals chaperone and stress transcriptome. Plos One. 6, e15919, 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Clark M.S. Thorne M.A.S. Vieira F.A. Cardoso J.C. Power D.M. Peck L.S. Insights into shell deposition in the Antarctic bivalve Laternula elliptica: gene discovery in the mantle transcriptome using 454 pyrosequencing. Bmc Genomics. 2010; 11: 14.10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Clarke A, Griffiths H.J, Barnes D.K.A, Meredith M.P. & Grant S.M. 2009. Spatial variation in seabed temperatures in the Southern Ocean: implications for benthic ecology and biogeography. Journal of Geophysical Research—Biogeosciences. 114, G03003, 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Clarke A. Griffiths H.I. Linse K. Barnes D.K.A. Crame A. How well do we know the Antarctic marine fauna? A preliminary study of macroecological and biogeographical patterns in Southern Ocean gastropod and bivalve molluscs. Diversity and Distribution. 2007; 13: 620–632. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Clarke A. Johnston N.M. Antarctic marine benthic diversity. Oceanography and Marine Biology: an Annual Review. 2003; 41: 47–114.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Connell J.H. Diversity in tropical rain forests and coral reefs. Science. 1978; 199: 1302–1310. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Convey P. Antarctic climate change and its influences on terrestrial ecosystems. Trends in Antarctic terrestrial and limnetic ecosystems: Antarctica as a global indicator. Bergstrom D.M. et al.. Springer. Dordrecht, 2006
   Google Scholar
• Convey P. Terrestrial biodiversity in Antarctica—recent advances and future challenges. Polar Science. 2010; 4: 135–147. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Convey P. Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity in a changing world. Polar Biology. 2011; 34: 1629–1641. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Convey P. Bindschadler R.A. di Prisco G. Fahrbach E. Gutt J. Hodgson D.A. Mayewski P. Summerhayes C.P. Turner J. Antarctic climate change and the environment. Antarctic Science. 2009; 21: 541–563. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Convey P. Block W. Peat H.J. Soil arthropods as indicators of water stress in Antarctic terrestrial habitats?. Global Change Biology. 2003; 9: 1718–1730. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Convey P. Gibson J. Hillenbrand C.-D. Hodgson D.A. Pugh P.J.A. Smellie J.L. Stevens M.I. Antarctic terrestrial life—challenging the history of the frozen continent?. Biological Reviews. 2008; 83: 103–117. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Convey P. McInnes S.J. Exceptional tardigrade-dominated ecosystems in Ellsworth Land, Antarctica. Ecology. 2005; 86: 519–527. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Convey P. Pugh P.J.A. Jackson C. Murray A.W. Ruhland C.T. Xiong F.S. Day T.A. Response of Antarctic terrestrial arthropods to long-term climate manipulations. Ecology. 2002; 83: 3130–3140. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Convey P. Smith R.I.L. Responses of terrestrial Antarctic ecosystems to climate change. Plant Ecology. 2006; 182: 1–10.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Convey P. Wynn-Williams D.D. Antarctic soil nematode response to artificial climate amelioration. European Journal of Soil Biology. 2002; 38: 255–259. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Cummings V.J. Thrush S.F. Norkko A. Andrew N.L. Hewitt J.E. Funnell G.A. Schwarz A.-M. Accounting for local scale variability in benthos: implications for future assessments of latitudinal trends in the coastal Ross Sea. Antarctic Science. 2006; 18: 633–644. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• David B. Choné T. Festeau A. Mooi R. De Ridder C. Biodiversity of Antarctic echinoids: a comprehensive and interactive database. Scientia Marina. 2005; 69: 201–203. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Davies K.F. Melbourne B.A. McClenahan J.L. Tuff T. Statistical models for monitoring and predicting effects of climate change and invasion on the free-living insects and a spider from sub-Antarctic Heard Island. Polar Biology. 2011; 34: 119–125. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Day T.A. Ruhland C.T. Grobe C.W. Xiong F. Growth and reproduction of Antarctic vascular plants in response to warming and UV radiation reductions in the field. Oecologia. 1999; 119: 24–35. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• De Broyer C. Danis B. How many species in the Southern Ocean? Towards a dynamic inventory of the Antarctic marine biodiversity. Deep-Sea Research Part II. 2011; 58: 5–17. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Denlinger D.L. Lee R.E. Low temperature biology of insects. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, 2010
   Google Scholar
• DeVries A.L. The role of antifreeze glycopeptides and peptides in the freezing avoidance of Antarctic fishes. Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology Part B. 1988; 90: 611–621.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• di Prisco G. Cocca E. Parker S.K. Detrich III H.W. Tracking the evolutionary loss of hemoglobin expression by the white-blooded Antarctic icefishes. Gene. 2002; 295: 185–191. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• di Prisco G. Verde C. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the evolutionary adaptations of polar fish. Reviews in Environmental Science and Biotechnology. 2006; 5: 309–321. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Doran P.T. Priscu J.C. Lyons W.B. Walsh J.E. Fountain A.G. McKnight D.M. Moorhead D.L. Virginia R.A. Wall D.H. Clow G.D. Fritsen C.H. McKay C.P. Parsons A.N. Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response. Nature. 2002; 415: 517–520. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Drinkwater K. Comparison of the response of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the high-latitude regions of the North Atlantic during the warm periods of the 1920s–1960s and the 1990s–2000s. Deep-Sea Research Part II. 2009; 56: 2087–2096. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Ducklow H.W. Baker K. Martinson D.G. Quetin L.B. Ross R.M. Smith R.C. Stammerjohan S.E. Vernet M. Fraser W. Marine pelagic ecosystems: the West Antarctic Peninsula. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 2007; 362: 67–94. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dudik M. Phillips S.J. Schapire R.E. Performance guarantees for regularized maximum entropy density estimation. Learning theory. 17th Annual Conference on Learning Theory COLT 2004. Banff, Canada, July 2004. Shawe-Taylor J. Singer Y. Springer. New York, 2004; 655–662.
   Google Scholar
• Ehrlich P.R. Population biology of checkerspot butterflies and the preservation of global biodiversity. Oikos. 1992; 63: 6–12. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Elith J. Leathwick J.R. Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics. 2009; 40: 677–697. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Elnitsky M.A. Benoit J.B. Denlinger D.L. Lee R.E. Desiccation tolerance and drought acclimation in the Antarctic collembolan Cryptopygus antarcticus. Journal of Insect Physiology. 2008; 54: 1432–1439. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Fowbert J.A. Smith R.I.L. Rapid population increases in native vascular plants in the Argentine Islands, Antarctic Peninsula. Arctic and Alpine Research. 1994; 26: 290–296. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Franklin C.E. Seebacher F. Adapting to climate change. Science. 2009; 323: 876.10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Freckman D.W. Virginia R.A. Low-diversity Antarctic soil nematode communities: distribution and response to disturbance. Ecology. 1997; 78: 363–369. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Frenot Y. Chown S.L. Whinam J. Selkirk P. Convey P. Skotnicki M. Bergstrom D. Biological invasions in the Antarctic: extent, impacts and implications. Biological Reviews. 2005; 80: 45–72. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fretwell P.T. Convey P. Fleming A.F. Peat H.J. Hughes K.A. Detecting and mapping vegetation distribution on the Antarctic Peninsula from remote sensing data. Polar Biology. 2011; 34: 273–281. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gaston K.J. Chown S.L. Calosi P. Bernardo J. Bilton D.T. Clarke A. Clusella-Trullas S. Ghalambor C.K. Konarzewski M. Peck L.S. Portner W.P. Pörtner H.-O. Rezende E.L. Schulte P.M. Spicer J.I. Stillmann J.H. Terblanche J.S. van Keulen M. Macrophysiology: a conceptual reunification. American Naturalist. 2009; 174: 595–612. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Goss-Custard J.D. Burton N.H.K. Clark N.A. Ferns P.N. McGrorty S. Reading C. Rehfisch M.M. Stillman R.A. Townend I. West A.D. Worrall D.H. Test of a behavior-based individual-based model: response of shorebird mortality to habitat loss. Ecological Applications. 2006; 16: 2215–2222. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Grange L. Tyler P.A. Peck L.S. Cornelius N. Long-term interannual cycles of the gametogenic ecology of the Antarctic brittle star Ophionotus victoriae. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 2004; 278: 141–155. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Grant S, Constable A, Raymond B. & Doust S. 2006. Bioregionalisation of the Southern Ocean: report of experts workshop, Hobart, September 2006. WWF-Australia, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. Sydney: WWF-Australia.
   Google Scholar
• Gremmen N.J.M. Smith V.R. Terrestrial vegetation and dynamics. The Prince Edward Islands. Land–sea interactions in a changing ecosystem. Chown S.L. Froneman P.W. SUN Press. Stellenbosch, 2008
   Google Scholar
• Grimm V. Railsback S.F. Individual-based modeling and ecology. Princeton University Press. Princeton, 2005
   Google Scholar
• Grimm V. Revilla E. Berger U. Jeltsch F. Mooij W.M. Railsback S.F. Thulke H.-H. Weiner J. Wiegand T. DeAngelis D.L. Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: lessons from ecology. Science. 2005; 310: 987–991. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Guisan A. Thuiller W. Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters. 2005; 8: 993–1009. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gutt J. Some “driving forces” structuring communities of the sublittoral Antarctic macrobenthos. Antarctic Science. 2000; 12: 297–313. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Gutt J. Coexistence of macro-zoobenthic species on the Antarctic shelf: An attempt to link ecological theory and results. Deep-Sea Research Part II. 2006; 53: 1009–1028. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Gutt J. Antarctic macro-zoobenthic communities: a review and a classification. Antarctic Science. 2007; 19: 165–182. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Gutt J. Barratt I. Domack E. d'Udekem d'Acoz C. Dimmler W. Grémare A. Heilmayer O. Isla E. Janussen D. Jorgensen E. Kock K.-H. Lehnert L.S. López-Gonzáles P. Langner S. Linse K. Manjón-Cabeza M.E. Meißner M. Montiel A. Raes M. Robert H. Rose A. Sañé Schepisi E. Saucède T. Scheidat M. Schenke H.-W. Seiler J. Smith C. Biodiversity change after climate-induced ice-shelf collapse in the Antarctic. Deep-Sea Research Part II. 2011; 58: 74–83. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Gutt J. Hosie G. Stoddart M. Marine life in the Antarctic. Life in the world's oceans: diversity, distribution, and abundance. McIntyre A.D. Wiley-Blackwell. Oxford, 2010; 203–220.
   Google Scholar
• Gutt J. Piepenburg D. Scale-dependent impact on diversity of Antarctic benthos caused by grounding of icebergs. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 2003; 253: 77–83. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gutt J. Starmans A. Quantification of iceberg impact and benthic recolonisation patterns in the Weddell Sea (Antarctica). Polar Biology. 2001; 24: 615–619. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Helmuth B. From cells to coastlines: how can we use physiology to forecast the impacts of climate change?. Journal of Experimental Biology. 2009; 212: 753–760. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Hennion F. Huiskes A. Robinson S. Convey P. Physiological traits of organisms in a changing environment. Trends in Antarctic terrestrial and limnetic ecosystems: Antarctica as a global indicator. Bergstrom D.M. et al.. Springer. Dordrecht, 2006; 129–159.
   Google Scholar
• Hodgson D. Convey P. Verleyen E. Vyverman W. McInnes S. Sands S. Fernández-Carazo R. Wilmotte A. Observations on the limnology and biology of the Dufek Massif, Transantarctic Mountains 82° South. Polar Science. 2010; 4: 197–214. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Hofmann E.E. Murphy E. Advection, krill, and Antarctic marine ecosystems. Antarctic Science. 2004; 16: 487–499. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hoffman J.I. Peck L.S. Hillyard G. Zieritz A. Clark M.S. No evidence for genetic differentiation between Antarctic limpet Nacella concinna morphotypes. Marine Biology. 2010; 157: 765–778. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Hofmann G.E. Buckley B.A. Airaksinen S. Keen J.E. Somero G.N. Heat-shock protein expression is absent in the Antarctic fish Trematomus bernacchii (family Nototheniidae). Journal of Experimental Biology. 2000; 203: 2331–2339.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hughes K.A. Convey P. The protection of Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems from inter and intra-continental transfer of non-indigenous species by human activities: a review of current systems and practices. Global Environmental Change—Human and Policy Dimensions. 2010; 20: 96–112. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jeltsch F. Moloney K.A. Schurr F.M. Köchy M. Schwager M. The state of plant population modelling in light of environmental change. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics. 2008; 9: 171–189. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jenouvrier S, Caswell H, Barbraud C, Holland M, Stroeve J. & Weimerskirch H. 2009. Demographic models and IPCC climate projects predict the decline of an emperor penguin population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 44–1847.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Johnston I.A. Muscle metabolism and growth in Antarctic fishes (suborder Notothenioidei): evolution in a cold environment. Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology B. 2003; 136: 701–713. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Johst K. Gutt J. Wissel C. Grimm V. Diversity and disturbances in the Antarctic megabenthos: feasible versus theoretical disturbance ranges. Ecosystems. 2006; 9: 1145–1155. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Karsten U. Wulff A. Roleda M.Y. Müller R. Steinhoff F.S. Fredersdorf J. Wiencke C. Physiological response of polar benthic algae to ultraviolet radiation. Botanica Marina. 2009; 52: 639–654. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kearney M. Porter W. Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species’ ranges. Ecology Letters. 2009; 12: 334–350. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Keith D.A. Akçakaya H.R. Thuiller W. Midgley G.F. Pearson R.G. Phillips S.J. Regan H.M. Araújo M.B. Rebelo T.G. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models. Biology Letters. 2008; 4: 560–563. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Kennedy A.D. Simulated climate change: are passive greenhouses a valid microcosm for testing the biological effects of environmental perturbations?. Global Change Biology. 1995; 1: 29–42. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kock K.-H. Antarctic fish and fisheries. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, 1992
   Google Scholar
• Koubbi P. Moteki M. Duhamel G. Goarant A. Hulley P.-A. O'Driscoll R. Ishimaru T. Pruvost P. Tavernier E. Hosie G. Ecoregionalization in myctophid fish in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean: results from generalized dissimilarity models. Deep-Sea Research Part II. 2010; 58: 170–180. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Lee J.E. Chown S.L. Breaching the dispersal barrier to invasion: quantification and management. Ecological Applications. 2009; 19: 1944–1959. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee J.E. Janion C. Marais E. Jansen van Vuuren B. Chown S.L. Physiological tolerances account for range limits and abundance structure in an invasive slug. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B. 2009; 276: 1459–1468. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Lee H.J. Vanhove S. Peck L.S. Vincx M. Recolonisation of meiofauna after catastrophic iceberg scouring in shallow Antarctic sediments. Polar Biology. 2001; 24: 918–925. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Le Quéré C. Rödenbeck C. Buitenhuis E.T. Conway T.J. Langenfelds R. Gomez A. Labuschagne C. Ramonet M. Nakazawa T. Metzl N. Gillett N. Heimann M. Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change. Science. 2007; 316: 1735–1738. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Longton R.E. The biology of polar bryophytes and lichens. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, 1988
   Google Scholar
• Lopez-Martinez G. Benoit J.B. Rinehart J.P. Elnitsky M.A. Lee R.E. Denlinger D.L. Dehydration, rehydration, and overhydration alter patterns of gene expression in the Antarctic midge, Belgica antarctica. Journal of Comparative Physiology B. 2009; 179: 481–491. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marshall G.J. Orr A. van Lipzig N.P.M. King J.C. The impact of a changing Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode on Antarctic Peninsula summer temperatures. Journal of Climate. 2006; 19: 5388–5404. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McClintock J. Ducklow H. Fraser W. Ecological responses to climate change on the Antarctic Peninsula. American Scientist. 2008; 96: 302–310.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McClintock J.B. Silva-Rodriguez P. Fraser W.R. Southerly breeding in gentoo penguins for the eastern Antarctic Peninsula: further evidence for unprecedented climate-change. Antarctic Science. 2010; 22: 285–286. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McCoy F.W. Southern Ocean sediments: circum-Antarctic to 30°S. Marine geological and geophysical atlas of the circum-Antarctic to 30°S. Hayes D.E. American Geophysical Union. Washington DC, 1991; 37–46.
   Google Scholar
• McGaughran A. Convey P. Redding G.P. Stevens M.I. Temporal and spatial metabolic rate variation in the Antarctic springtail Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni. Journal of Insect Physiology. 2010a; 56: 57–64. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McGaughran A. Toricelli G. Caramelli A. Frati F. Stevens M.I. Convey P. Hogg I.D. Contrasting phylogeographic patterns for springtails reflect different evolutionary histories between the Antarctic Peninsula and continental Antarctica. Journal of Biogeography. 2010; 37: 103–119. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Michaud M.R. Benoit J.B. Lopez-Martinez G. Elnitsky M.A. Lee R.E. Denlinger D.L. Metabolomics reveals unique and shared metabolic changes in response to heat shock, freezing and desiccation in the Antarctic midge, Belgica Antarctica. Journal of Insect Physiology. 2008; 54: 645–655. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Montes-Hugo M. Doney S.C. Ducklow H.W. Fraser W. Martinson D. Stammerjohan S.E. Schofield O. Recent changes in phytoplankton communities associated with rapid regional climate change along the western Antarctic Peninsula. Science. 2009; 323: 1470–1473. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morgan F. Barker G. Briggs C. Price R. Keys H. Environmental domains of Antarctica. Version 2.0. Final report. Landcare Research Contract Report LC0708/055. Landcare Research, New Zealand Ltd. Auckland, 2007
   Google Scholar
• Morley S.A. Griffiths H.J. Barnes D.K.A. Peck L.S. South Georgia: a key location for linking physiological capacity to distributional changes in response to climate change. Antarctic Science. 2010; 22: 774–781. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Morley S.A. Hirse T. Pörtner H.-O. Peck L.S. Geographical variation in thermal tolerance within Southern Ocean marine ectotherms. Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology A. 2009; 153: 154–161. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Morley S.A. Tan K.S. Day R.W. Martin S.M. Pörtner H.O. Peck L.S. Thermal dependency of burrowing in three species within the bivalve genus Laternula: a latitudinal comparison. Marine Biology. 2009; 156: 1977–1984. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Mortimer E. Jansen van Vuuren B. Lee J.E. Marshall D.J. Convey P. Daniels S.R. Chown S.L. Mite dispersal among the Southern Ocean Islands and Antarctica before the last glacial maximum. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B. 2011; 278: 1247–1255. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Nielsen U.N, Wall D.H, Adams B.J. & Virginia R.A. 2011. Antarctic nematode communities: observed and predicted responses to climate change. Polar Biology. , 1701–1711.
   Google Scholar
• Orr J.C. Fabry V.J. Aumont O. Bopp L. Doney S.C. Feely R.A. Gnanadesikan A. Gruber N. Ishida A. Joos F. Key R.M. Lindsay K. Maier-Reimer E. Matear R. Monfray P. Mouchet A. Najjar R.G. Plattner G.K. Rodgers K.B. Sabine C.L. Sarmiento J.L. Schlitzer R. Slater R.D. Totterdell I.J. Weirig M.F. Yamanaka Y. Yool A. Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature. 2005; 437: 681–686. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Parnikoza I. Convey P. Dykyy I. Trokhymets V. Milinevsky G. Tyschenko O. Inozemtesva D. Kozeretska I. Current status of the Antarctic herb tundra formation in the Central Argentine Islands. Global Change Biology. 2009; 15: 1685–1693. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Patarnello T. Verde C. di Prisco G. Bargelloni L. Zane L. How will fish that evolved at constant sub-zero temperatures cope with global warming? Notothenioids as a case study. BioEssays. 2011; 33: 260–268. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Pearman P.B. Randin C.F. Broennimann O. Vittoz P. Van der Knaap W.O. Engler R. Lay G.L. Zimmermann N.E. Guisan A. Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia. Ecology Letters. 2008; 11: 357–369. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Peck L.S. Brockington S. Vanhove S. Beghyn M. Community recovery following catastrophic iceberg impacts in a soft-sediment shallow-water site at Signy Island, Antarctica. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 1999; 186: 1–8. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peck L.S. Clark M.S. Clarke A. Cockell C.S. Convey P. Detrich H.W.III, Fraser K.P.P. Johnston I.A. Methe B.A. Murray A.E. Römisch K. Rogers A.D. Prospects for genomic research in Antarctica. Polar Biology. 2005; 28: 351–365. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Peck L.S. Convey P. Barnes D.K.A. Environmental constraints on life histories in Antarctic ecosystems: tempos, timings and predictability. Biological Reviews. 2006; 81: 75–109. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peck L.S. Webb K.E. Clark M.S. Miller A. Hill T. Temperature limits to activity, feeding and metabolism in the Antarctic starfish Odontaster validus. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 2008; 381: 181–189. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Peck L.S. Barnes D.K.A. Cook J. Fleming A.H. Clarke A. Negative feedback in the cold: ice retreat produces new carbon sinks in Antarctica. Global Change Biology. 2009; 16: 2614–2623. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Peck L.S. Barnes D.K.A. Cook A.J. Fleming A.H. Clarke A. Negative feedback in the cold: ice retreat produces new carbon sinks in Antarctica. Global Change Biology. 2010; 16: 2614–2623. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Peck L.S. Clark M.S. Morley S.A. Massey A. Rossetti H. Animal temperature limits and ecological relevance: effects of size, activity and rates of change. Functional Ecology. 2009; 23: 248–256. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pereira H.M. Leadley P.W. Proença V. Alkemade R. Scharlemann J.P.W. Fernandez-Manjarrés J.F. Araújo M.B. Balvanera P. Biggs R. Cheung W.W.L. Chini L. Cooper H.D. Gilman E.L. Guénette S. Hurtt G.C. Huntington H.P. Mace G.M. Oberdorff T. Revenga C. Rodrigues P. Scholes R.J. Sumaila U.R. Walpole M. Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st Century. Science. 2010; 330: 1496–1501. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Phillips S.J. Anderson R.P. Schapire R.E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling. 2006; 190: 231–259. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pinkerton M.H. Smith A.N.H. Raymond B. Hosie G.W. Sharp B. Leathwick J.R. Bradford-Grieve J.M. Spatial and seasonal distribution of adult Oithona similis in the Southern Ocean: predictions using boosted regression trees. Deep-Sea Research Part I. 2010; 57: 469–485. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Pörtner H.-O. Knust R. Climate change affects marine fishes through the oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance. Science. 2007; 315: 95–97. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Potthoff M2006. The role of disturbance for the Antarctic benthos—a simulation study. PhD thesis, Carl von Ossietzky Universität., Oldenburg.
   Google Scholar
• Potthoff M. Johst K. Gutt J. How to survive as a pioneer species in the Antarctic benthos: minimum dispersal distance as a function of lifetime and disturbance. Polar Biology. 2006; 29: 543–551. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Potthoff M. Johst K. Gutt J. Wissel C. Clumped dispersal and species coexistence. Ecological Modelling. 2006; 198: 247–254. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Quayle W.C. Convey P. Peck L.S. Ellis-Evans J.C. Butler H.G. Peat H.J. Ecological responses of maritime Antarctic lakes to regional climate change. Antarctic Peninsula climate variability: historical and palaeoenvironmental perspectives. Domack E. et al.. American Geophysical Union. Washington DC, 2003; 341–347.
   Google Scholar
• Quayle W.C. Peck L.S. Peat H. Ellis-Evans J.C. Harrigan P.R. Extreme responses to climate change in Antarctic lakes. Science. 2002; 295: 645.10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Railsback S.F. Harvey B.C. Analysis of habitat-selection rules using an individual-based model. Ecology. 2002; 83: 1817–1830.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Raymond B. McInnes J. Dambacher J.M. Way S. Bergstrom D.M. Quantitative modelling of invasive species eradication on Subantarctic Macquarie Island. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2011; 48: 181–191. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Robinson L.M. Elith J. Hobday A.J. Pearson R.G. Kendall B.E. Possingham H.P. Richardson A.J. Pushing the limits in marine species distribution modelling: lessons from the land present challenges and opportunities. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 2011; 20: 789–802. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Russo R. Giordano D. Riccio A. di Prisco G. Verde C. Cold-adapted bacteria and the globin case study in the Antarctic bacterium Pseudoalteromonas haloplanktis TAC125. Marine Genomics. 2010; 3: 125–131. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schenke H.W. Dijkstra S. Niederjasper H. Hinze H. Hoppmann B. Schöne T. The new bathymetric charts of the Weddell Sea: AWI BCWS. Ocean, ice, and atmosphere: interactions at the Antarctic continental margin. Jacobs S.S. Weiss R.F. American Geophysical Union. Washington DC, 1998; 371–380.
   Google Scholar
• Schwarz J.N. Schodlok M.P. Impact of drifting icebergs on surface phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean: ocean colour remote sensing and in situ iceberg tracking. Deep-Sea Research Part I. 2009; 56: 1727–1741. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Silva T.A.M. Grant R.B. Computer-based identification and tracking of Antarctic icebergs in SAR images. Remote Sensing of Environment. 2005; 94: 287–297. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sinclair B.J. Terblanche J.S. Scott M.B. Blatch G.L. Klok C.J. Chown S.L. Environmental physiology of three species of Collembola at Cape Hallett, North Victoria Land, Antarctica. Journal of Insect Physiology. 2006; 52: 29–50. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smetacek V. Nicol S. Polar ocean ecosystems in a changing world. Nature. 2005; 437: 362–368. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smith R.I.L. Vegetation of the South Orkney Islands with particular reference to Signy Island. British Antarctic Survey Scientific Reports 68. British Antarctic Survey. London, 1972
   Google Scholar
• Smith R.I.L. Plant colonization response to climate change in the Antarctic. Folia Facultatis Scientiarium Naturalium Universitatis Masarykianae Brunensis, Geographia. 2001; 25: 19–33.
   Google Scholar
• Smith W.H.F. Sandwell D.T. Global seafloor topography from satellite altimetry and ship depth soundings. Science. 1997; 277: 1957–1962.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Soberón J. Grinnellian and Eltonian niches and geographic distributions of species. Ecology Letters. 2007; 10: 1115–1123. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sokolov S. & Rintoul S.R. 2009. Circumpolar structure and distribution of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current fronts: 1. Mean circumpolar paths. Journal of Geophysical Research—Oceans. 114, C11018, 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K.B., Tignor M. & Miller H.L. Jr. 2007. Climate change 2007. The physical science basis: contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Somero G.N. The physiology of climate change: how potentials for acclimatization and genetic adaptation will determine ‘winners’ and ‘losers’. Journal of Experimental Biology. 2010; 213: 912–920. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sømme L. Invertebrates in hot and cold environments. Springer. Berlin, 1995
   Google Scholar
• Spreen G, Kaleschke L. & Heygster G. 2008. Sea ice remote sensing using AMSR-E 89 GHz channels. Journal of Geophysical Research—Oceans. 113, C02S03, 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Stock C.A. Alexander M.A. Bond N.A. Brander K. Cheung W.W.L. Curchitser E.N. Delworth T.L. Dunne J.P. Griffies S.M. Haltuch M.A. Hare J.A. Hollowed A.B. Lehodey P. Levin S.A. Link J.S. Rose K.A. Rykaczewski R.R. Sarmiento J.L. Stouffer R.J. Schwing F.B. Vecchi G.A. Werner F.E. On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on living marine resources. Progress in Oceanography. 2011; 8: 1–27. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Swets J.A. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science. 1988; 240: 1285–1293. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tarling G.A. Klevjer T. Fielding S. Watkins J. Atkinson A. Murphy E. Korb R. Whitehouse M. Leaper R. Variability and predictability of Antarctic krill swarm structure. Deep-Sea Research Part I. 2009; 56: 1994–2012. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Teets N.M. Kawarasaki Y. Lee R.E. Denlinger D.L. Survival and energetic costs of repeated cold exposure in the Antarctic midge, Belgica antarctica: a comparison between frozen and supercooled larvae. Journal of Experimental Biology. 2011; 214: 806–814. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Thorne M.A.S. Burns G. Fraser K.P.P. Hillyard G. Clark M.S. Transcription profiling of acute temperature stress in the Antarctic plunderfish Harpagifer antarcticus. Marine Genomics. 2010; 3: 35–44. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Thuiller W. Albert C. Araújo M.B. Berry P.M. Cabeza M. Guisan A. Hickler T. Midgley G.F. Paterson J. Schurr F.M. Sykes M.T. Zimmermann N.E. Predicting global change impacts on plant species’ distributions: future challenges. Perspectives in Plant Ecology. Evolution and Systematics. 2008; 9: 137–152.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tournadre J, Whitmer K. & Girard-Ardhuin F. 2008. Iceberg detection in open water by altimeter waveform analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research—Oceans. 113, C08040, 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Trathan P.N. Reid K. Exploitation of the marine ecosystem in the sub-Antarctic: historical impacts and current consequences. Papers and Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania. 2009; 143: 9–14.
   Google Scholar
• Truebano M. Burns G. Thorne M.A.S. Hillyard G. Peck L.S. Skibinski D.O.F. Clark M.S. Transcriptional response to heat stress in the Antarctic bivalve Latemula elliptica. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. 2010; 391: 65–72. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Turner J. Bindschadler R. Convey P. di Prisco G. Fahrbach E. Gutt J. Hodgson D. Mayewsky P. Summerhayes C. Antarctic climate change and the environment. Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research and Scott Polar Research Institute. Cambridge, 2009
   Google Scholar
• Usher M.B. Booth R.G. Arthropod communities in a maritime Antarctic moss-turf habitat: three-dimensional distributio of mites and Collembola. Journal of Animal Ecology. 1984; 53: 427–441. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Verde C. Vergara A. Mazzarella L. di Prisco G. The hemoglobins of fishes living at polar latitudes—current knowledge on structural adaptations in a changing environment. Current Protein & Peptide Science. 2008; 9: 578–590. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Vincent W.F. Laybourn-Parry J. Polar lakes and rivers—limnology of Arctic and Antarctic aquatic ecosystems. Oxford University Press. Oxford, 2008
   Google Scholar
• Vyverman W. Verleyen E. Wilmotte A. Hodgson D.A. Willem A. Peeters K. Van de Vijver B. De Wever A. Leliaert F. Sabbe K. Evidence for widespread endemism among Antarctic micro-organisms. Polar Science. 2010; 4: 103–113. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wharton D.A. The environmental physiology of Antarctic terrestrial nematodes: A review. Journal of Comparative Physiology B. 2003; 173: 621–628. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Willis S.G. Thomas C.D. Hill J.K. Collingham Y.C. Telfer M.G. Fox R. Huntley B. Dynamic distribution modelling: predicting the present from the past. Ecography. 2009; 32: 5–12. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Worland M.R. Eretmoptera murphyi: pre-adapted to survive a colder climate. Physiological Entomology. 2010; 35: 140–147. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Zimmermann N.E. Yoccoz N.G. Thomas C. Edwards J. Meier E.S. Thuiller W. Guisan A. Schmatz D.R. Pearman P.B. Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2009; 106: 19723–19728. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zurell D. Berger U. Cabral J.S. Jeltsch F. Meynard C.N. Münkemüller T. Nehrbass N. Pagel J. Reineking B. Schröder B. Grimm V. The virtual ecologist approach: simulating data and observers. Oikos. 2010; 119: 622–635. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zurell D, Grimm V, Rossmanith E, Zbinden N, Zimmermann N.E. & Schröder B. 2011. Uncertainty in predictions of range dynamics: black grouse climbing the Swiss Alps. Ecography. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Google Scholar
• Zurell D. Jeltsch F. Dormann C.F. Schröder B. Static species distribution models in dynamically changing systems: how good can predictions really be?. Ecography. 2009; 32: 733–744. 10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar