References
- Barkmeijer, J. 1992. Local error growth in a barotropic model. Tellus 44A, 314–323.
- Barkmeijer, J. and Opsteegh, J. D. 1992. Local skill predictions for the ECMWF model using adjoint techniques. Proceedings of the Workshop on New developments in predictability, 1991. Reading, England, ECMWF, 55–64.
- Boer, G. J. 1984. A spectral analysis of predictability and error in an operational forecast system. Mon. Wea. Rev. 112, 1183–1197.
- Bouttier, F. 1992. The dynamics of error covariances in a barotropic model. Preprint Meteo-France/CNRM, Toulouse, France, 45 pp.
- Brankovié, C., Palmer, T. N., Molteni, F., Tibaldi, S. and Cubasch, U. 1990. Extended-range predictions with ECMWF models: time-lagged ensemble forecasting. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc. 166, 867–912.
- Dalcher, A., Kalnay, E. and Hoffman, R. N. 1988. Medium-range lagged average forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 116, 402–416.
- Errico, R. and Vukkevié, T. 1992. Sensitivity analysis using ad adjoint of the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 120, 1644–1660.
- Farrell, B. 1989. Optimal excitation of baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci. 46, 1193–1206.
- Hall, M. C. G., Cacuci, D. G. and Schlesinger, M. E. 1982. Sensitivity analysis of a radiative convective model by the adjoint method. J. Atmos. Sci. 39, 2038–2050.
- Hoffman, R. N. and Kalnay, E. 1983. Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting. Tellus 35A, 100–118.
- Houtekamer, P. L. 1992. The quality of skill forecasts for a low-order spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 120, 2993–3002.
- Houtekamer, P. L. 1993. Global and local skill forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press.
- Kruizinga, S. and Kok, C. J. 1988. Evaluation of the ECMWF experimental skill prediction scheme and a statistical analysis of forecast errors. Proceedings of the workshop on Predictability in the medium and extended range, 1987. Reading, England, ECMWF, 403–415.
- Lacarra, J.-F. and Talagrand, O. 1988. Short-range evolution of small perturbations in a barotropic model. Tellus 40A, 81–95.
- Lorenz, E. N. 1965. A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model. Tellus 27, 321–333.
- Lorenz, E. N. 1982. Atmospheric predictability experi-ments with a large numerical model. Tellus 34, 505–513.
- Lorenz, E. N. 1990. Effects of analysis and model error on routine weather forecasting. Proceedings of the semi-nar on Ten years of medium-range weather forecasting, 1989. Reading, England, ECMWF, 115–128.
- Marchuk, G. I. 1974. Numerical solution of the problems of the dynamics of the atmosphere and the ocean. Academic Press, New York (Russian version 1967), 387 pp.
- Molteni, F. and Palmer, T. N. 1992. Predictability and finite-time instability of the Northern Winter Circula-tion. Proceedings of the Workshop on New develop-ments in predictability, 1991. Reading, England, ECMWF, 101–142.
- Mureau, R., Molteni, F. and Palmer, T. N. 1992. Ensemble predictions using dynamically-conditioned perturbations. Proceedings of the workshop on New developments in predictability, 1991. Reading, England, ECMWF, 143–174.
- Palmer, T., Molteni, F., Mureau, R., Buizza, R., Chapelet, P. and Tribbia, J. 1992. Ensemble pre-diction, ECMWF Technical Memorandum no. 188, 45 pp.
- Talagrand, O. and Courtier, P. 1987. Variational assimilation of meteorological observations with the adjoint vorticity equation. (I). Theory. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 113, 1311–1328.
- Tribbia, J. J. and Baumhefner, D. P. 1988. The reliability of improvements in deterministic short-range forecasts in the presence of initial state and modeling deficiences. Mon. Wea. Rev. 116, 2276–2288.
- Vukiéevie, T. 1991. Nonlinear and linear evolution of initial forecast errors. Mon. Wea. Rev. 119, 1460–1482.
- Zhang, Z. 1988. The linear study of zonally asymmetric barotropic flows, PhD thesis. University of Reading, England, 163 pp.