110
Views
8
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Downscaling of DEMETER winter seasonal hindcasts over Northern Italy

, , , &
Pages 424-434 | Received 31 Mar 2004, Accepted 25 Oct 2004, Published online: 15 Dec 2016

References

  • Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, R. E. 1987. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev. 115, 1083–1126.
  • Bjerknes, J. 1962. Synoptic surveyof the interaction of sea and atmosphere in the North Atlantic. Geophys. Norvegica 24 (3), 115–145.
  • Bjerknes, J. 1964. Atlantic air-sea interaction. Adv. Geophys. 10, 1–82.
  • Branckovié, Č. and Palmer, T. N. 2000. Seasonal skill amd predictability of ECMWF PROVOST ensembles. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 126,2035–2068.
  • Branstator, G. 1985. Analysis of general circulation model sea surface temperature anomaly simulations using a linear model. Part I: forced solutions. J. Atmos. Sci. 42,2225–2241.
  • Cacciamani, C., Nanni, S. and Tibaldi, S. 1994. Mesoclimatology of winter temperature and precipitation in the Po Valley of Northern Italy. Int. J. Climatol. 14, 777–814.
  • d’Andrea, E, Tibaldi, S., Blackburn, M., Boer, G., Déqué, M. and co-authors. 1998. Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979–1988. Clim. Dyn. 14, 385–407.
  • Deser, C. and Blackmon, M. L. 1993. Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during winter: 1900–1989. J. Climate 6, 1743–1753.
  • Doblas-Reyes, E J., Déque, M. and Piedeliévre, J. -Ph. 2000. Multi-model spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 126, 126–2088.
  • Ferranti, L., Molteni, E and Palmer, T. N. 1994. Impact of localized and extratropical SST anomalies in ensembles of seasonal GCM integrations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 120, 1613–1645.
  • Frei, C. and Schar, C. 1998. A precipitation climatology of the Alps from high-resolution rain-gauge observations. Int. J. Climatol. 18,873–900.
  • Girolamo, A. and Libera, A. 1990. A national climatic database: the Italian experience. Internal Technical Report, AGRISIEL SpA.
  • Hagedorn, R., Doblas-Reyes, E J. and Palmer, T. N. 2005. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic concept.Tellus 57 A, 219-233.
  • Harrison, M. S. J., Palmer, T. N., Richardson, D. S., Buizza, R. and Petroliagis, T. 1996. Joint ensembles from the UKMO and ECMWF models. In: Proceedings of ECMWF seminar on Predictability ( 4–8 September 1995), Vol. II, ECMWF, Reading, UK, 61-120.
  • Hartmann, H. C., Pagano, T. C., Sorooshian, S. and Bales, R. 2002. Confidence builder: evaluating seasonal climate forecasts for user perspectives. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83, 683–698.
  • Hoskins, B. J. and Karoly, D. J. 1981. The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J. Atmos. Sci. 38, 1179–1196.
  • Hurrell, J. W. and van Loon, H. 1997. Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic oscillation. Clim. Change 36,301–326.
  • Katz, R. and Murphy, A. 1997. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1-222.
  • Kharin, V. V. and Zwiers, E W. 2002. Climate prediction with multi-model ensembles. J. Climate 15, 793–799.
  • Krishnamurti, T. N., Kishtawal, C. M., Timoty, E. L., Bachiochi, D. R., Zhang, Z. and co-authors. 1999. Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model superensemble.Science 285, 1548–1550.
  • Kunkel, K., Pielke, R. A. Jr. and Changnon, S. A. 1999. Temporal fluctuations in weather and climate extremes that cause economic and human health impacts: a review. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 80, 1077–1098.
  • Lin, H. and Derome, J. 2003. The atmospheric response to North Atlantic SST anomalies in unseasonal prediction experiments. Tellus 55A, 193–207.
  • Murnane, R. J., Crowe, M., Eustis, A., Howard, S., Koepsell, J. and co-authors. 2002. The weather risk manegement industry’s climate forecast and data needs. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83, 83–1198.
  • Palmer, T. N. and Anderson, D. L. T. 1994. The prospects for seasonal forecasting: a review paper. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 120, 755–793.
  • Palmer, T. N. and Sun, Z. 1985. A modelling and observational study of the relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies in the north-west Atlantic and the atmospheric general circulation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 111, 947–975.
  • Palmer, T. N., Alessandri, A., Andersen, U., Cantelaube, P., Davey, M. and co-authors. 2004. DEMETER: Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to interannual prediction. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 85, 85–872.
  • Pavan, V. and Doblas-Reyes, E 2000. Multi-model seasonal hindcasts over the Euro-Atlantic: skill scores and dynamic features. Clim. Dyn. 16,611–625.
  • Pavan, V., Molteni, E and Brankovié, Č. 2000a. Wintertime variability in the Euro-Atlantic region in observations and in ECMWF seasonal ensemble experiments. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 126, 2143–2173.
  • Pavan, V., Tibaldi, S. and Brankovié,Č. 2000b. Seasonal prediction ofblocking frequency: results from winter ensemble experiments. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 126, 2125–2142.
  • Pielke, R. Jr. and Carbone, R. E. 2002. Weather impacts, forecasts, and policy. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83, 393–403.
  • Quadrelli, R., Lazzeri, M., Cacciamani, C. and Tibaldi, S. 2001. Observed winter alpine precipitation variability and links with large-scale circulation patterns. Climate Res. 17, 275–284.
  • Ratcliffe, R. A. S. and Murray, R. 1970. New lag assosiation between North Atlantic sea temperature and European pressure applied to long-range weather forecasting. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 226–246.
  • Rogers, J. C. 1990. Patterns of low-frequency monthly sea-level pressure variability (1899–1989) and associated wave cyclones frequencies. J. Climate 3, 1364–1379.
  • Sarda, J., Plaut, G., Pires, C. and Vautard, R. 1996. Statistical and dynamical long-range atmospheric forecasts: experimental comparison and hybridization. Tellus 48A, 518–537.
  • Simmons, A. J. and Gibson, J. K. 2000. The ERA-40 Project Plan. ERA-40 Project Report Series No. 1. ECMWF, Reading, UK.
  • Thompson, P. D. 1977. How to improve accuracy by combining independent forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 105, 228–229.
  • Tibaldi, S. and Molteni, E 1990. On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus 42A, 343–365.
  • Tibaldi, S., Tosi, E., Navarra, A. and Pedulli, L. 1994. Northern and Southern Hemisphere seasonal variability of blocking frequency and predictability. Mon. Wea. Rev. 122, 1971–2003.
  • Tomozeiu, R., Busuioc, A., Marletto, V., Zinoni, E and Cacciamani, C. 2000. Detection of changes in the summer precipitation time series of the region Emilia-Romagna, Italy. Theor AppL Climatol. 67, 67–200.
  • Tomozeiu, R., Busuioc, A. and Stefan, S. 2002a. Changes in seasonal mean maximum air temperature in Romania and their connection with large-scale circulation. Int. J. Climatol. 22, 181–196.
  • Tomozeiu, R., Lazzeri, M. and Cacciamani, C. 2002b. Precipitation fluctuations during winter season from 1960 to 1995 over Emilia-Romagna, Italy. Theor AppL Climatol. 72, 221–229.
  • UCEA 1990. Analisi climatologica e progettazione della rete agrometeorologica nazionale. Technical report for the Ministero dell’ Agricoltura e delle foreste, Direzione generale della produzione agricola. UCEA, Rome, Italy.
  • Uppala, S. 2002. ECMWF Reanalysis 1957–2001, ERA-40.In: ERA-40 Project Report Series No. 3, ECMWF, Reading, 1-10, (also available from http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/ecpublications/proceedings/ERA40-reanalysis_workshop/index.html).
  • Wallace, J. M. and Gutzler, D. S. 1981. Teleconnection in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev. 109, 784–812.
  • Wilks, S. D. 1995. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, International Geophysics Series (eds R. Dmowska and J. R. Holton), Academic, New York, 1-467.