References
- Arkin, P. A. and Xie, P. 1994. The global precipitation climatology project: first algorithm intercomparison project. Bull. Am. MeteoroL Soc. 75, 401–420.
- Brier, G. W. 1950. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev. 78, 1–3.
- Cassou, C., Terray, L., Hurrell, J. W. and Deser C. 2004a. North Atlantic winter climate regimes: spatial asymmetry, stationarity with time and oceanic forcing. J. Climate 17, 1055–1068.
- Cassou, C., Terray, L., Deser, C., Drevillon, M. and Hurrell, J. W. 2004b. Summer sea surface temperature conditions in the North Atlantic and their impacts upon the atmospheric circulation in early winter. J. Climate 17, 3349–3363.
- Delecluse, P. and Madec, G. 1999. Ocean modelling and the role of the ocean in the climate system. In: Modeling the Earth’s Climate and its Variability (eds. W. R. Holland, S. Joussaume, and E David), Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, 237-313.
- Deque, M. 2001. Seasonal predictability of tropical rainfall: probabilistic formulation and validation. Tellus 53A, 500–512.
- Diday, E. and Simon, J. C. 1976. Clustering analysis. In: Communication and Cybernetics 10 Digital Pattern Recognition (ed. K. S. Fu), Springer-Verlag, New York, 47-94.
- Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C. A., Banks, H., Gregory, J. M. and co-authors. 2000. The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dyn. 16, 16–168.
- Gregory, D., Morcrette, J. J., Jakob, C., Beljaars, A. C. M. and Stockdale, T. 2000. Revision of convection, radiation and cloud schemes in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System. Q. J. R. MeteoroL Soc. 126, 1685–1710.
- Halpert, M. S. and Ropelewslci, C. F. 1992. Surface temperature patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate 7, 577–593.
- Hurrell, J. W. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation and relationships to regional temperature and precipitation. Science 269, 676–679.
- Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G. and Visbeck, M. 2003. An overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In: The North Atlantic Oscillation, Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact, Geophysical Monograph Series 134, Washington, DC,1-35.
- Lorenz, E. N. 1963. Deterministic non-periodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 26, 130–141.
- Madec, G., Delecluse, P., Imbard, M. and Levy, C. 1997. OPA Release 8, Ocean General Circulation Model Reference Manual. LODYC Internal Report, Paris, 200 pp. ( available from LODYC/IPSL, 4 Place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France).
- Madec, G., Delecluse, P., Imbard, M. and Levy, C. 1998. OPA version 8.1 Ocean General Circulation Model Reference Manual. LODYC Tech. Rep. 11, Paris, 91 pp. (available from LODYC/IPSL, 4 Place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France).
- Marsland, S. J., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J. H., Latif, M. and Riiske, F. 2003. The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Modelling 5, 91–127.
- Martineu, C. 1997. Contribution to climate seasonal forecasts evaluation. Analysis of winter atmospheric variability in Europe simulated by an AGCM. Thesis, Ecole Doctorale de Mecanique, Ecole Centrale De Lyon, Lyon, France (in French).
- Martineu, C., Caneill, J. Y. and Sadourny, R. 1999. Potential predictability of european winters from the analysis of seasonal simulations with an AGCM. J. Climate 12, 3033–3061.
- Michelangeli, P.-A., Vautard, R. and Legras, B. 1995. Weather regimes: recurrence and quasistationarity. J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 1237–1256.
- Murphy, A. H. 1973. A new vector partition of the probability score. J. AppL MeteoroL 12, 595–600.
- Palmer, T. N., Alessandri, A., Andersen, U., Cantelaube, R, Davey, M. and co-authors. 2004. Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 85, 85–872.
- Plaut, G. and Simonnet, E. 2001. Large-scale circulation classification weather regimes, and local climate over France, the Alps, and Western Europe. Climate Res. 17, 303–324.
- Pope, V. D., Gallani, M. L., Rowntree P. R. and Stratton, R. A. 2000. The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3. Climate Dyn. 16, 123–146.
- Rodwell, M. J., Rowell, D. P. and Folland, C. K. 1999. Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate. Nature 398, 320–323.
- Roeckner, E. 1996. The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM-4: Model Description and Simulation of Present-Day Climate. Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Technical Report No 218, Hamburg, 90 pp. (available from Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie Bundesstr. 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany).
- Sanders, R. A. 1953. Blocking highs over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe. Mon. Wea. Rev. 81, 67–73.
- Simmons, A. J. and Gibson, J. K. 2000. The ERA40 Project Plan. ERA40 Project Report Series No. 1.
- Simonnet, E. and Plaut, G. 2001. Space—time analysis of geopotential height and SLP, intraseasonal oscillations, weather regimes, and local climates over North Atlantic and Europe. Climate Res. 17, 325–342.
- Terray, L. and Cassou, C. 2002. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature forcing of quasi-decadal climate variability over the North Atlantic—European region. J. Climate 15, 3170–3187.
- Ulbrich, U. and Christoph, M. 1999. A shift of the NAO and increasing storm track activity over Europe due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. Climate Dyn. 15, 551–559.
- Vautard, R. 1990. Multiple weather regimes over the North Atlantic: analysis of precursors and successors. Mon. Wea. Rev. 118, 2056–2081.
- Ward, J. 1963. Hierarchical grouping to optimize an objective function. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 58, 236–244.
- Wilks, D. S. 1995. Probability forecasts. In: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Academic Press, New York, 258-272.
- Wolff, J. E., Maier-Reimer, E. and Legutke, S. 1997. The Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation Model. Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum Technical Report No. 13, Hamburg (available from Model and Data Group, do Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie Bundesstr. 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany).