Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Spring Runoff for the Rocky Mountains of Montana and Alberta II: Runoff Change Projections using Future Scenarios

References

• Alberta Agriculture, Food & Rural Development (AAFRD). 2000 . Irrigation in Alberta, Part , 2 Alberta Agriculture, Food & Rural Development, Lethbridge, AB
   Google Scholar
• Barnett , T. P. , Adam , J. C. and Lettenmaier , D. P. 2005 . Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. . Nature , 438 ( 17 ) : 1 – 7 .
   Google Scholar
• Barrow , E. and Yu , G. 2005 . Climate Scenarios for Alberta, 73 pp, Alberta Environment and PARC (Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative), Regina, Saskatchewan
   Google Scholar
• Betts , R. A. 2004 . “ Global vegetation and climate: Self-beneficial effects, climate forcings and climate feedbacks ” . In Journal de Physique IV(121) 3 – 60 .
   Google Scholar
• Bond , N. A. , Overland , J. E. , Spillane , M. and Stabeno , P. 2003 . Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific. . Geophysical Research Letters , 30 ( 23 ) 2183. doi:10.1029/2003GL018597
   Google Scholar
• Bonsal , B. , Prowse , T. D. and Pietroniro , A. 2003 . An assessment of global climate model-simulated climate for the western cordillera of Canada (1961–90). . Hydrological Processes , 17 : 3703 – 3716 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brown , R. D. and Braaten , R. O. 1998 . Spatial and temporal variability of Canadian Monthly snow depths, 1946–1995. . Atmosphere-Ocean , 36 ( 1 ) : 37 – 54 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Byrne , J. , Kienzle , S. , Duke , G. , Gannon , V. , Selinger , B. and Thomas , J. 2006 . Current and future water issues in the Oldman River Basin, Alberta, Canada. . Water Science and Technology , 53 ( 10 ) : 327 – 334 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carter , T. , Hulme , M. and Lal , M. 1999 . Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment. Prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Task Group on Scenarios for Climate Impact Assessment [IPCC-TGCIA] 69 Geneva , , Switzerland : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change .
   Google Scholar
• Christensen , J. H. , Hewitson , B. , Busuioc , A. , Chen , A. , Gao , X. , Held , I. , Jones , R. , Kolli , R. K. , Kwon , W.-T. , Laprise , R. , Rueda , V. M. , Mearns , L. , Menendez , C. G. , Raisanen , J. , Rinke , A. , Sarr , A. and Whetton , P. 2007 . Regional Climate Projections Cambridge, UK, and New York , , USA : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change .
   Google Scholar
• Cubasch , U. , Meehl , G. A. and Boer , G. J. 2001 . “ Projections of future climate change ” . In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Edited by: Houghton , J. T. e. a. 525 – 582 . Cambridge University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Diffenbaugh , N. S. , Pal , J. S. , Trapp , R. J. and Giorgi , F. 2005 . Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change. . Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. , 102 ( 44 ) : 15774 – 15778 .
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Field , C. B. , Mortsch , L. D. , Brklacich , M. , Forbes , D. L. , Kovacs , P. , Patz , J. A. , Running , S. W. and Scott , M. J. 2007 . North America Vol. 617 , Cambridge , , UK : Cambridge University Press . 652 pp
   Google Scholar
• Groisman , P. Y. , Karl , T. R. and Knight , R. W. 1994 . Changes of snow cover, temperature, and radiative heat balance over the Northern Hemisphere. . Journal of Climate , 7 ( 11 ) : 1633 – 1656 .
   Google Scholar
• Halliday , R. and Faveri , G. 2007 . The St. Mary and Milk Rivers: The 1921 Order revisited. . Canadian Water Resources Journal , 32 ( 1 ) : 75 – 92 .
   Google Scholar
• Hamlet , A. F. , Mote , P. W. , Clark , M. P. and Lettenmaier , D. P. 2005 . Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the Western United States. . Journal of Climate , 18 : 4545 – 4561 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hauer , F. R. , Baron , J. S. , Campbell , D. H. , Fausch , K. D. , Hostetler , S. W. , Leavesley , G. H. , Leavitt , P. R. , Mcknight , D. M. and Stanford , J. A. 1997 . Assessment of climate change and freshwater ecosystems of the Rocky Mountains, USA and Canada. . Hydrological Processes , 11 : 903 – 924 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hungerford , R. D. , Nemani , R. R. , Running , S. W. and Coughlan , J. C. 1989 . MTCLIM: Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model. Research Paper INT-414, 52 pp, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station, Ogden, UT
   Google Scholar
• Huntington , T. G. 2006 . Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis. . Journal of Hydrology. , 319 ( 1 ) : 83 – 95 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Karl , T. R. , Groisman , P. Y. , Knight , R. W. and Heim , R. R. 1993 . Recent variations of snow cover and snowfall in North America and their relation to precipitation and temperature variations. . Journal of Climate , 6 : 1327 – 1344 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Knowles , N. , Dettinger , M. D. and Cayan , D. R. 2006 . Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the Western United States. . Journal of Climate , 19 : 4545 – 4559 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Langen , N. , Dettinger , M. D. and Cayan , D. R. 2007 . Cloud variability, radiative forcing and meridional temperature gradients in a general circulation model . Tellus Series A - Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography , 59 ( 5 ) : 641 – 649 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Larson , R. P. , Byrne , J. M. , Johnson , D. L. , Letts , M. G. and Kienzle , S. W. This issue. Modelling climate change impacts on spring runoff for the Rocky Mountains of Montana and Alberta I: Model development, calibration and historical analysis. . Canadian Water Resources Journal. , 36 ( 1 ) 17 – 34 .
   Google Scholar
• Lapp , S. , Byrne , J. M. , Kienzle , S. W. and Townshend , I. 2002 . Linking global circulation model synoptics and precipitation for western North America. . International Journal of Climatology , 22 : 1807 – 1817 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lapp , S. , Byrne , J. M. , Kienzle , S. W. and Townshend , I. 2005 . Climate warming impacts on snowpack accumulation in an alpine watershed: A GIS based modeling approach. . International Journal of Climatology , 25 ( 4 ) : 521 – 526 .
   Google Scholar
• Lettenmaier , D. P. , Wood , E. F. and Wallis , J. R. 1994 . Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States, 1948–88. . Journal of Climate , 7 : 586 – 607 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leung , L. R. and Wigmosta , M. S. 1999 . Potential climate change impacts on mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest. . Journal of the American Water Resources Association , 35 : 1463 – 1471 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leung , L. R. , Hamlet , A. F. , Lettenmaier , D. P. and Kumar , A. 1999 . Simulations of the ENSO hydroclimate signals in the Pacific Northwest Columbia River Basin. . Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , 80 ( 11 ) : 2313 – 2329 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leung , L. R. , Qian , Y. , Bian , X. , Washington , W. M. , Han , J. and Roads , J. O. 2004 . Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the western United States. . Climatic Change , 62 : 75 – 113 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Loukas , A. , Vasiliades , L. and Dalezios , N. R. 2002 . Potential climate change impacts on flood producing mechanisms in southern British Columbia, Canada using the CGCMA1 simulation results. . Journal of Hydrology , 259 ( 1–4 ) : 163 – 188 .
   Google Scholar
• Loukas , A. , Vasiliades , L. and Dalezios , N. R. 2004 . Climate change implications on flood response of a mountainous watershed. . Water, Air and Soil Pollution: Focus , 4 ( 4–5 ) : 331 – 347 .
   Google Scholar
• McCabe , G. J. and Wolock , D. M. 1999 . General-Circulation-Model simulations of future snowpack in the Western United States. . Journal of the American Water Resources Association , 35 ( 6 ) : 1473 – 1483 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Merritt , W. S. , Alila , Y. , Barton , M. , Taylor , B. , Cohen , S. and Neilsen , D. 2006 . Hydrologic response to scenarios of climate change in sub watersheds of the Okanagan basin, British Columbia. . Journal of Hydrology , 326 ( 1–4 ) : 79 – 107 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morrison , J. , Quick , M. C. and Foreman , M. G. G. 2002 . Climate change in the Fraser River watershed: flow and temperature projections. . Journal of Hydrology , 263 ( 1–4 ) : 230 – 244 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mote , P. W. 2003 . Trends in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes. . Geophysical Research Letters , 30 ( 12 ) : 1 – 4 .
   Google Scholar
• Mote , P. W. , Hamlet , A. F. , Clark , M. P. and Lettenmaier , D. P. 2005 . Declining mountain snowpack in Western North America. . American Meteorological Society , 86 ( 1 ) : 39 – 49 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nakićenović , N. 2000 . IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios 599 Cambridge, UK and New York , , USA : Cambridge University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Nash , L. L. and Gleick , P. H. 1991 . Sensitivity of streamflow in the Colorado Basin to climatic changes. . Journal of Hydrology , 125 ( 3–4 ) : 221 – 241 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Newman , M. , Compo , G. P. and Alexander , M. A. 2003 . ENSO-forced variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. . Journal of Climate , 16 ( 23 ) : 3853 – 3857 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Overland , J. E. and Wang , M. 2007 . Future climate of the North Pacific Ocean. . Eos , 88 ( 16 ) : 178 – 182 .
   Google Scholar
• Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC). 2007 . Scenario Access Interface http://www.pacificclimate.org/impacts/ (accessed April 2007.)
   Google Scholar
• Qu , X. and Hall , A. 2007 . What controls the strength of the snow-albedo feedback? . Journal of Climate , 20 ( 15 ) : 3971 – 3981 .
   Google Scholar
• Rood , S. B. , Mahoney , J. M. , Reid , D. E. and Zilm , L. 1995 . Instream flows and the decline of riparian cottonwoods along the St. Mary River, Alberta. . Canadian Journal of Botany , 73 : 1250 – 1260 .
   Google Scholar
• Rood , S. B. , Samuelson , G. M. , Weber , J. K. and Wywrot , K. A. 2005a . Twentieth-century decline in streamflows from the hydrographic apex of North America. . Journal of Hydrology , 306 ( 1–4 ) : 215 – 233 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rood , S. B. , Samuelson , G. M. , Braatne , J. H. , Gourley , C. R. , Hughes , F. M. R. and Mahoney , J. M. 2005b . Managing river flows to restore floodplain forests. . Frontiers in Ecology , 3 ( 4 ) : 193 – 201 .
   Google Scholar
• Rood , S. B. , Pan , J. , Gill , K. M. , Franks , C. G. , Samuelson , G. M. and Shepherd , A. 2008 . Declining summer flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: Changing seasonal hydrology and probably impacts on floodplain forests. . Journal of Hydrology , 349 ( 3–4 ) : 397 – 410 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sanderson , B. M. , Samuelson , G. M. , Weber , J. K. and Wywrot , K. A. 2005 . Twentieth- century decline in streamflows from the hydrographic apex of North America. . Journal of Hydrology , 306 ( 1–4 ) : 215 – 233 .
   Google Scholar
• Schindler , D. W. and Donahue , W. F. 2006 . An impending water crisis in Canada's western prairie provinces. . Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USAS , 103 ( 19 ) : 7210 – 7216 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Selkowitz , D. J. , Fagre , D. B. and Reardon , B. A. 2002 . Interannual variations in snowpack in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem. . Hydrological Processes , 16 : 3651 – 3665 .
   Google Scholar
• Shabbar , A. and Bonsal , B. 2003 . An assessmnet of changes in winter cold and warm spells over Canada. . Natural Hazards , 29 ( 2 ) : 173 – 188 .
   Google Scholar
• Shepperd , A. 1996 . Modelling Hydrometeorology in the Upper Oldman River Basin. M.Sc. Thesis, 178 pp, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge
   Google Scholar
• Stewart , I. T. , Cayan , D. R. and Dettinger , M. D. 2004 . Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in Western North America under a ‘business as usual’ climate change scenario. . Climatic Change , 62 : 217 – 232 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stewart , I. T. , Cayan , D. R. and Dettinger , M. D. 2005 . Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across Western North America. . Journal of Climate , 18 : 1136 – 1115 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vincent , L. A. , Zhang , X. and Hogg , W. D. 1999 . Maximum and minimum temperature trends in Canada for 1895–1995 and 1945–1995, paper presented at 10th Symposium on Global Change Studies, American Meteorological Society, Dallas, TX
   Google Scholar
• Von Storch , H. , Zorita , E. and Cubasch , U. 1993 . Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales: an application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime. . American Meteorological Society , 6 : 1161 – 1171 .
   Google Scholar
• Weibull , W. 1951 . A statistical distribution function of wide applicability. . Journal of Applied Mechanics , 18 : 293 – 297 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Whitfield , P. H. , Reynolds , C. J. and Cannon , A. 2002 . Modelling streamflow in present and future climates: example from the Georgia basin, British Columbia. . Canadian Water Resources Journal , 27 ( 4 ) : 427 – 456 .
   Google Scholar