https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2282-6626
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ABSTRACT
Focusing on Biafra’s calculus of war to shed new light on the rebel-side debate, this article revisits the Civil War of Nigeria (1967–1970) to extract campaign lessons for the Nigerian Army (NA) in its fight against Boko Haram (BH). The paper uses Nassim Taleb’s ‘antifragility’ theory to explain why Biafra rebels crumbled under traditional military campaign stressors imposed on them. By contrast, Boko Haram’s ‘antifragile’ threat has grown, even as campaign stressors imposed by the NA increased. Embracing the differences in operational environment within both conflicts, this article reflects on the implications of BH’s antifragility for the NA’s counter-insurgency (COIN).
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1. Alli, Notes from.
2. Alli, Notes from.
3. Notes from anonymous NA colonel. Borno State DSS Director Ahmed shared similar views with me in Maiduguri.
4. Omeni, Insurgency and War in Nigeria, 117.
5. See: Kaldor, ‘In Defence of New Wars,’; Kaldor, New and old wars.
6. See: Kaldor, ‘In Defence of New Wars,’; Kaldor, New and old wars.
7. Omeni, Counter-insurgency in Nigeria, 91.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Akali Omeni
Akali Omeni joined the CSTPV from the University of Leicester where he was an Assistant Professor in African Politics and also led the Africa Research Group. Omeni joined Leicester from King’s College London where he taught at the Department of War Studies. He previously worked with the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and was co-chair of the Africa Research Group at King’s College London (affiliated to their world-leading War Studies department).
In 2019, Omeni won the prestigious ‘Rising Star’ excellence award at King’s College London. Omeni earned his PhD in 2015 at King’s College London’s Defence Studies Department, based at the Joint Services Command and Staff College, Defence Academy of the UK. He has published extensively, with books on the Nigerian military and BH’s insurgency and a forthcoming monograph on the Nigeria Police Force, with Lynne Rienner.