The International Rate of Discontinuance of Some Old Products

ABSTRACT

Proinnovation bias has limited marketing scholars to studying only the dynamics of rapidly spreading innovations. Firms also need to understand how old products are being discontinued. Wealth, substitute products, and time effects on the rate of discontinuance of four durable goods are analyzed in 86 countries. The rate of discontinuance is found to be faster in countries in which discontinuance tends to start later and is slower than the rate of adoption. It tends to be faster in emerging economies. The authors conclude that assuming that the rates of adoption and discontinuance have the same dynamics may lead to wrong strategic decisions.

KEYWORDS:

• Diffusion models
• rate of discontinuance
• penetration
• exit strategy

Notes

¹Electronic and electrical waste.

²http://ec.europa.eu/environment/waste/weee/index_en.htm.

³The Mansfield model is also referred as imitative model or internal model.

⁴For video-cassette recorders, data are available for only 71 countries.

⁵http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications/country-and-lending-groups.